FOMC Recap:
The Fed held at 3.75%, but the dot plot did the talking. Nine of 18 FOMC members now project a 2026 hike — six see two. 2026 PCE inflation revised up to 3.6% (from 2.7%), with the return to 2% target pushed out to 2028.
One of the biggest takeaways was Warsh dropping forward guidance entirely, calling it "not well suited for the current policy conjuncture." The statement shrunk from 300+ words to 130. He also announced five task forces to review Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity & labor, and the inflation framework.
The dollar was the only beneficiary. Bonds, stocks, currencies, and gold all sold off.
Traders are now fully pricing in two Fed hikes by the end of Q1 2027.
Welcome to the new Fed era. Less guidance. More data dependence. And 5 specialized TASK FORCES
The Fed held at 3.75%, but the dot plot did the talking. Nine of 18 FOMC members now project a 2026 hike — six see two. 2026 PCE inflation revised up to 3.6% (from 2.7%), with the return to 2% target pushed out to 2028.
One of the biggest takeaways was Warsh dropping forward guidance entirely, calling it "not well suited for the current policy conjuncture." The statement shrunk from 300+ words to 130. He also announced five task forces to review Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity & labor, and the inflation framework.
The dollar was the only beneficiary. Bonds, stocks, currencies, and gold all sold off.
Traders are now fully pricing in two Fed hikes by the end of Q1 2027.
Welcome to the new Fed era. Less guidance. More data dependence. And 5 specialized TASK FORCES
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The median dot moved from 3.4% to 3.8% year-end in three months. What does this upward revision signal?
The median dot moved from 3.4% to 3.8% year-end in three months. What does this upward revision signal?
Anonymous Quiz
58%
Committee shifted from cut to hike — inflation data changed the policy path
16%
Committee shifted from cut to hike — growth weakness forced preemptive tightening
15%
Committee shifted from cut to hike — the peace deal removed the need for easing
11%
Committee shifted from cut to hike — Warsh unilaterally overrode the prior projection
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Gold, 4H chart update:
I am still short, with a stop above structure.
Notice the three possible outcomes I've outlined in the image attached.
1. If price breaks through my major resistance at 4360, I exit the position with a small loss
2. If price holds that area resistance zone, I stay in the trade, anticipating lower lows
3. Price moves lower, respecting the macro + price trend
Where many traders go wrong is fixating on what they'll do if they're right. What's most important is acknowledging that you could be wrong, and how you'll handle it.
Manage risk first!
- Nick
I am still short, with a stop above structure.
Notice the three possible outcomes I've outlined in the image attached.
1. If price breaks through my major resistance at 4360, I exit the position with a small loss
2. If price holds that area resistance zone, I stay in the trade, anticipating lower lows
3. Price moves lower, respecting the macro + price trend
Where many traders go wrong is fixating on what they'll do if they're right. What's most important is acknowledging that you could be wrong, and how you'll handle it.
Manage risk first!
- Nick
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USD/JPY Analysis: Now Rejecting The Crucial 162 Zone
USD/JPY dropped 70 pips in two minutes after a suspected Japanese intervention. The pair just pressed against 162.00, a level that has triggered previous serious interventions.
The BoJ hiked to 1.00% last week — the first time at that level since 1995. Yet the pair continues higher because the Fed at 3.75% still creates a 275bp differential that fuels the carry trade. The hike narrowed the gap but did not reverse direction.
This is intervention's structural problem. Japan spent ¥11.7T defending the yen from late April through May with limited durable impact. Each subsequent operation burns more reserves while the rate gap remains the gravitational center.
Thursday's US PCE is the next catalyst. A hot print reinforces the Fed's restrictive stance and pulls USD/JPY back toward 162. A soft print may give traders cover to take profits ahead of further intervention risk.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USD/JPY dropped 70 pips in two minutes after a suspected Japanese intervention. The pair just pressed against 162.00, a level that has triggered previous serious interventions.
The BoJ hiked to 1.00% last week — the first time at that level since 1995. Yet the pair continues higher because the Fed at 3.75% still creates a 275bp differential that fuels the carry trade. The hike narrowed the gap but did not reverse direction.
This is intervention's structural problem. Japan spent ¥11.7T defending the yen from late April through May with limited durable impact. Each subsequent operation burns more reserves while the rate gap remains the gravitational center.
Thursday's US PCE is the next catalyst. A hot print reinforces the Fed's restrictive stance and pulls USD/JPY back toward 162. A soft print may give traders cover to take profits ahead of further intervention risk.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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GBP/USD Analysis: Now Under Pressure as Starmer Steps Down
GBP/USD is bouncing from 1.3200 support and pulling into the 38.2% Fib of the recent decline. The 50% retracement at 1.3311 aligns with prior support-turned-resistance, the cleanest level for a risk-defined short. EdgeFinder reads -6 bearish.
Starmer has stepped down. Burnham's path to Number 10 is the dominant question. Sterling has lost ~3% since pressure on Starmer began in February, with UK 10-year gilts near 4.85% — the highest in the G7 and near 2008 financial-crisis levels.
A Burnham coronation could allow a brief relief rally. A contested transition triggers fiscal-commitment fears that pressure sterling and gilts further.
The institutional posture is bearish. A pullback into 1.3311 represents the cleanest entry to align with both the technicals and the macro positioning.
read the full article here.
— Alan
GBP/USD is bouncing from 1.3200 support and pulling into the 38.2% Fib of the recent decline. The 50% retracement at 1.3311 aligns with prior support-turned-resistance, the cleanest level for a risk-defined short. EdgeFinder reads -6 bearish.
Starmer has stepped down. Burnham's path to Number 10 is the dominant question. Sterling has lost ~3% since pressure on Starmer began in February, with UK 10-year gilts near 4.85% — the highest in the G7 and near 2008 financial-crisis levels.
A Burnham coronation could allow a brief relief rally. A contested transition triggers fiscal-commitment fears that pressure sterling and gilts further.
The institutional posture is bearish. A pullback into 1.3311 represents the cleanest entry to align with both the technicals and the macro positioning.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Reaching a maximum allocation of $400,000 with a firm like FTMO is an incredibly hard milestone to achieve. It is not an accident. It requires moving past the guesswork and developing the kind of discipline and consistency that most traders never reach.
One of our members, Khodad, just hit that $400k mark. While I am thrilled that our tools and community helped him, it takes incredible dedication on his part to achieve this.
He went from being overwhelmed by market noise to trading with real precision once he started using EdgeFinder and plugging into our VIP community.
He did not get there by luck. He got there because:
1. He used a system that actually works.
2. He joined a group that encouraged him to show up.
3. He put in the intense, focused work required to execute properly.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What time frame do you trade on?
What time frame do you trade on?
Anonymous Poll
9%
1m
18%
5m
29%
15m
34%
1h
41%
4h
21%
1d
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