Nasdaq Now Jumps 2% and Clears Its June Downtrend Line
Nasdaq is up 2.14% with the session barely underway, and price has pushed above the descending line that capped every advance since mid-June.
I am holding judgement until the close. Forty-five minutes of trade is not a daily close through a two-month trendline, and this index has produced a lower high on every prior test of it.
The wider chart adds something useful. The 200-day sits near 26,800, roughly 10% beneath price, and at the 27,200 correction low the index was still about 1.5% above it. The long-term trend was never actually threatened. CFRA measured the drawdown at 11.3% from June 2 to July 29.
The rally is downstream of oil. Crude fell ~6% Monday on the Iran de-escalation, yields eased, and the term premium that broke this index on FOMC day began unwinding.
Leadership remains narrow. Software and megacaps led while chips fell, with the SOX 25% under its June peak. Payrolls Friday will be telling...
read the full article here.
— Alan
Nasdaq is up 2.14% with the session barely underway, and price has pushed above the descending line that capped every advance since mid-June.
I am holding judgement until the close. Forty-five minutes of trade is not a daily close through a two-month trendline, and this index has produced a lower high on every prior test of it.
The wider chart adds something useful. The 200-day sits near 26,800, roughly 10% beneath price, and at the 27,200 correction low the index was still about 1.5% above it. The long-term trend was never actually threatened. CFRA measured the drawdown at 11.3% from June 2 to July 29.
The rally is downstream of oil. Crude fell ~6% Monday on the Iran de-escalation, yields eased, and the term premium that broke this index on FOMC day began unwinding.
Leadership remains narrow. Software and megacaps led while chips fell, with the SOX 25% under its June peak. Payrolls Friday will be telling...
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤9🔥7
US 2-Year Yield Now Breaks Lower as Hike Odds Shift
The US 2-year is down more than 6 basis points and at its lowest since July 21. Price is pressed against the ascending trendline drawn from the March war-start low, and this is the second attempt at breaking it. The first failed.
Bessent told CNBC this morning that a deal to reopen Hormuz could land today or tomorrow and that Washington is in talks with Tehran. Crude fell about 4% to a three-week low. September hike odds slipped to 59% from 68% on Monday.
What I keep looking at is the long end. The 30-year sits at 5.199%, within a handful of basis points of a 19-year high, while the 2-year has repriced meaningfully lower. The energy relief is landing almost entirely in the front end.
Treasury publishes auction sizes Wednesday against $739bn of third-quarter borrowing, $68bn above the May estimate. Supply is the long end's problem, and a Hormuz deal does not address it.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The US 2-year is down more than 6 basis points and at its lowest since July 21. Price is pressed against the ascending trendline drawn from the March war-start low, and this is the second attempt at breaking it. The first failed.
Bessent told CNBC this morning that a deal to reopen Hormuz could land today or tomorrow and that Washington is in talks with Tehran. Crude fell about 4% to a three-week low. September hike odds slipped to 59% from 68% on Monday.
What I keep looking at is the long end. The 30-year sits at 5.199%, within a handful of basis points of a 19-year high, while the 2-year has repriced meaningfully lower. The energy relief is landing almost entirely in the front end.
Treasury publishes auction sizes Wednesday against $739bn of third-quarter borrowing, $68bn above the May estimate. Supply is the long end's problem, and a Hormuz deal does not address it.
read the full article here.
— Alan
🔥13❤9👍8
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures:
Anonymous Quiz
17%
The average change in prices — but only for goods, excluding services entirely
16%
The average change in prices — though CPI only tracks food and energy costs
8%
The average change in prices — but CPI is calculated identically to the GDP deflator
58%
The average change in prices for a basket of goods and services over time — the broad basket
❤4👍2🔥1
Crude Oil Now Breaks a Critical Level Iran Just Confirmed
WTI is trading beneath the 200-day. Price has given back more than 18% from the 92.79 trendline tap two weeks ago, with over 10% of that arriving in the prior two sessions alone.
The confirmation I have been waiting on since Monday arrived today. Iran's foreign ministry said the geographic characteristics of the Hormuz route are agreed by Iran and Oman. Tehran denied talks with Washington all week, and it still can, because the structure Axios describes runs inbound traffic through Iranian waters and outbound through Omani waters. Iran keeps de facto control and never has to say it negotiated with the US.
Three things temper this. The arrangement is a 60-day interim deal. The strait is mined, with clearance possibly handed to European navies. And the Houthis hit a Saudi vessel in the Red Sea today.
I need a meaningful close below the 200-Day moving average for further confidence that the "deal" is near.
read the full article here.
— Alan
WTI is trading beneath the 200-day. Price has given back more than 18% from the 92.79 trendline tap two weeks ago, with over 10% of that arriving in the prior two sessions alone.
The confirmation I have been waiting on since Monday arrived today. Iran's foreign ministry said the geographic characteristics of the Hormuz route are agreed by Iran and Oman. Tehran denied talks with Washington all week, and it still can, because the structure Axios describes runs inbound traffic through Iranian waters and outbound through Omani waters. Iran keeps de facto control and never has to say it negotiated with the US.
Three things temper this. The arrangement is a 60-day interim deal. The strait is mined, with clearance possibly handed to European navies. And the Houthis hit a Saudi vessel in the Red Sea today.
I need a meaningful close below the 200-Day moving average for further confidence that the "deal" is near.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤15👍7🔥3
Gold Now Breaks Out of $4,200
Gold is up about 4.5%, and through the 4,200 resistance I've been watching for some time. This is the third breakout attempt, and this one carried.
I am constructive here. The move arrived on the day the war premium is being removed from everything else, which tells me gold no longer needs the conflict to work. ADP printed 44,000 private jobs against 70,000 expected. September hike odds fell to 57% from 67%. The dollar softened and the 10-year sits red on the day.
Also, EdgeFinder reads +5 bullish.
I'm watching pullbacks personally to trail profit and potentially add to a winner. A retest of 4,120 to 4,150 that holds could be a good sign of market structure holding the bullish picture intact.
From a target prospective.. the first main hurdle would be the 200 Day MA at 4,500.
A failure back under 4,180 puts price inside the range. The big NFP is Friday.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold is up about 4.5%, and through the 4,200 resistance I've been watching for some time. This is the third breakout attempt, and this one carried.
I am constructive here. The move arrived on the day the war premium is being removed from everything else, which tells me gold no longer needs the conflict to work. ADP printed 44,000 private jobs against 70,000 expected. September hike odds fell to 57% from 67%. The dollar softened and the 10-year sits red on the day.
Also, EdgeFinder reads +5 bullish.
I'm watching pullbacks personally to trail profit and potentially add to a winner. A retest of 4,120 to 4,150 that holds could be a good sign of market structure holding the bullish picture intact.
From a target prospective.. the first main hurdle would be the 200 Day MA at 4,500.
A failure back under 4,180 puts price inside the range. The big NFP is Friday.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤22👍13🔥7
Gold daily chart: the breakout is finally here... will it stick? Read more!
Technicals: Gold is breaking out of its daily chart range its been in the last few months, gaining over 4% today (at the time of writing). While it looks a bit overextended short term, any pullbacks look attractive in my view.
Fundamentals/macro: cooler inflation, soft jobs data, 10 year yield cooling a bit, and geopolitics showing some potential for de-escalation? Sweet spot! See second slide for EdgeFinder bias (Hint: its been bullish for several days!)
I'm looking for longs. Will post any trades I take in our VIP discord!
Join the VIP group today and trade with me! Message here if you want a subscriber discount: https://bit.ly/4ufx8VG
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- Nick
Technicals: Gold is breaking out of its daily chart range its been in the last few months, gaining over 4% today (at the time of writing). While it looks a bit overextended short term, any pullbacks look attractive in my view.
Fundamentals/macro: cooler inflation, soft jobs data, 10 year yield cooling a bit, and geopolitics showing some potential for de-escalation? Sweet spot! See second slide for EdgeFinder bias (Hint: its been bullish for several days!)
I'm looking for longs. Will post any trades I take in our VIP discord!
Join the VIP group today and trade with me! Message here if you want a subscriber discount: https://bit.ly/4ufx8VG
👉 Get EdgeFinder Trial + Free Course: https://bit.ly/4xrDjrQ
- Nick
❤27😱5👍4
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A weaker than expected Non-Farm Payrolls this Friday would likely tilt the Fed:
A weaker than expected Non-Farm Payrolls this Friday would likely tilt the Fed:
Anonymous Quiz
68%
Dovish
32%
Hawkish
❤18👍1
The Hormuz "Deal" Now Has Fees In It
WTI is up nearly 4%, and back above the 200-day near 76. The breakdown I wrote about yesterday lasted two sessions.
The reason sits in the detail rather than the headline. Fars reported this morning that Hormuz transit fees will be charged as service fees covering insurance, refueling and environmental costs. On Wednesday, CBS reported the proposal carried no fees at all. Add US and Israeli vessels barred from passage, penalties of up to 20% of cargo value, and a plan to eliminate both existing corridors and route all traffic through a central channel Iran manages entry for. It remains a draft bill under expert review.
The oil market sold 16% off the July high on a clean reopening. What is being drafted is a fee-and-permission regime.
That break ran two weeks to 68 before buyers took it back to 92.79. This one lasted two days, which tells me the bid is more urgent now.
Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow.
read the full article here.
— Alan
WTI is up nearly 4%, and back above the 200-day near 76. The breakdown I wrote about yesterday lasted two sessions.
The reason sits in the detail rather than the headline. Fars reported this morning that Hormuz transit fees will be charged as service fees covering insurance, refueling and environmental costs. On Wednesday, CBS reported the proposal carried no fees at all. Add US and Israeli vessels barred from passage, penalties of up to 20% of cargo value, and a plan to eliminate both existing corridors and route all traffic through a central channel Iran manages entry for. It remains a draft bill under expert review.
The oil market sold 16% off the July high on a clean reopening. What is being drafted is a fee-and-permission regime.
That break ran two weeks to 68 before buyers took it back to 92.79. This one lasted two days, which tells me the bid is more urgent now.
Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤11👍11
Everything You Need to Know for Tomorrow's NFP
DXY is green on the day, sitting between resistance at 100.5 and the 200-day support near 99.25. That is a range of roughly 1.25 points and price is close to the middle of it.
Part of today's bid is crude. WTI is up 3.6%, which firms inflation expectations, which firms hike odds, which supports the dollar. The rest is traders standing down. The FX market is quiet ahead of payrolls.
Tomorrow is a big deal, and will likely dictate price action for the next couple of weeks. Consensus runs 85,000 to 100,000 with unemployment at 4.2% to 4.3%. June printed 57,000 against 110,000 expected and ADP came in at 44,000 on Wednesday, so the recent run argues softer than the forecast.
A soft print pulls September hike odds down from 57% and pressures the dollar toward the 200-day. A firm print puts 100.50 back in play. I watch average hourly earnings as closely as the headline, because a soft number with hot wages resolves nothing.
read the full article here
— Alan
DXY is green on the day, sitting between resistance at 100.5 and the 200-day support near 99.25. That is a range of roughly 1.25 points and price is close to the middle of it.
Part of today's bid is crude. WTI is up 3.6%, which firms inflation expectations, which firms hike odds, which supports the dollar. The rest is traders standing down. The FX market is quiet ahead of payrolls.
Tomorrow is a big deal, and will likely dictate price action for the next couple of weeks. Consensus runs 85,000 to 100,000 with unemployment at 4.2% to 4.3%. June printed 57,000 against 110,000 expected and ADP came in at 44,000 on Wednesday, so the recent run argues softer than the forecast.
A soft print pulls September hike odds down from 57% and pressures the dollar toward the 200-day. A firm print puts 100.50 back in play. I watch average hourly earnings as closely as the headline, because a soft number with hot wages resolves nothing.
read the full article here
— Alan
❤29👍12🫡4
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Purchasing power parity suggests that exchange rates should adjust so that identical goods cost the same in different countries when priced in a common currency.
Purchasing power parity suggests that exchange rates should adjust so that identical goods cost the same in different countries when priced in a common currency.
Anonymous Quiz
61%
True
39%
False
❤13
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❤7🔥5👍3
The Dollar Trade Now Unwinds Further
DXY is down about half a percent, and sitting almost directly on the 200-day at 99.25.
Payrolls fell 23,000 against expectations near 83,000. May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. The line that matters most is wages, where average hourly earnings rose two cents and the annual rate fell to 3.2%, the lowest since May 2021 against a 3.5% forecast. Soft hiring with soft wages is a clean read, and it takes away the hawks' best argument.
September hike odds are 44%, from 55% yesterday and 67% a week ago. The curve now carries roughly one hike through 2027 against two and a half earlier this year.
99.25 is the next level of support where DXY bargain hunters can step in to drive it higher. If you break that 200 Day, then you now are a lot closer to Pre-War levels. Interesting... I'm curious if we find ourselves near that Pre-War level and the war comes to and end. Just a thought.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY is down about half a percent, and sitting almost directly on the 200-day at 99.25.
Payrolls fell 23,000 against expectations near 83,000. May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. The line that matters most is wages, where average hourly earnings rose two cents and the annual rate fell to 3.2%, the lowest since May 2021 against a 3.5% forecast. Soft hiring with soft wages is a clean read, and it takes away the hawks' best argument.
September hike odds are 44%, from 55% yesterday and 67% a week ago. The curve now carries roughly one hike through 2027 against two and a half earlier this year.
99.25 is the next level of support where DXY bargain hunters can step in to drive it higher. If you break that 200 Day, then you now are a lot closer to Pre-War levels. Interesting... I'm curious if we find ourselves near that Pre-War level and the war comes to and end. Just a thought.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤12👍8😍1
Gold Now: Best Week Since January as Hike Bets Collapse
Gold is heading for its best week since January. Wednesday's breakout continues!
The thesis I laid out on Wednesday rested on the rate path turning.
I'm not going to re-write the NFP breakdown since it's located above on the DXY markup.
But here's what I will say: Rate hike odds got scaled back pretty meaningfully. And, lower interest rates make gold more attractive relative to yield-bearing assets as bullion does not generate interest.
Price tagged 4,372.86 and pulled back. That level around 4,355 to 4,375 rejected gold in mid-June and it is the first real test since. A Friday afternoon after a 7% week usually gives some back.
I'm watching these key fib levels: The 0.382 at 4,236.78 already held once. Below that is 4,190 to 4,225, where broken resistance meets the 0.5 at 4,194.74.
The 200-day near 4,480 is still overhead. That is the first real target I'm aiming for.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold is heading for its best week since January. Wednesday's breakout continues!
The thesis I laid out on Wednesday rested on the rate path turning.
I'm not going to re-write the NFP breakdown since it's located above on the DXY markup.
But here's what I will say: Rate hike odds got scaled back pretty meaningfully. And, lower interest rates make gold more attractive relative to yield-bearing assets as bullion does not generate interest.
Price tagged 4,372.86 and pulled back. That level around 4,355 to 4,375 rejected gold in mid-June and it is the first real test since. A Friday afternoon after a 7% week usually gives some back.
I'm watching these key fib levels: The 0.382 at 4,236.78 already held once. Below that is 4,190 to 4,225, where broken resistance meets the 0.5 at 4,194.74.
The 200-day near 4,480 is still overhead. That is the first real target I'm aiming for.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤27👍16
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
If wages rise 4% and inflation is running at 3%, workers have experienced a 4% increase in purchasing power.
If wages rise 4% and inflation is running at 3%, workers have experienced a 4% increase in purchasing power.
Anonymous Quiz
26%
True
74%
False
❤18🔥8🫡5
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Oil Now Up 5% As Deal Hopes Collapse
Oil is at 80.83 and back above the 200-day. Price has recovered close to 9% off last week's low at 74.30.
Iran published six conditions Saturday. End US military action, permanently end the war, withdraw naval and air forces, pay war reparations, lift sanctions, release frozen assets. Until then the strait stays shut.
Washington has been describing a shipping arrangement. Tehran is describing a settlement of the war. Those are not the same negotiation, and the market spent last week pricing the first one.
The number that matters most is transit volume. MarineTraffic counted eight to fifteen vessels crossing on August 4, 5 and 6 against roughly 130 before the conflict. The strait is still about 90% closed while headlines said it was reopening.
The June 17 memorandum was signed and collapsed within weeks over routing. That precedent is worth remembering.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Oil is at 80.83 and back above the 200-day. Price has recovered close to 9% off last week's low at 74.30.
Iran published six conditions Saturday. End US military action, permanently end the war, withdraw naval and air forces, pay war reparations, lift sanctions, release frozen assets. Until then the strait stays shut.
Washington has been describing a shipping arrangement. Tehran is describing a settlement of the war. Those are not the same negotiation, and the market spent last week pricing the first one.
The number that matters most is transit volume. MarineTraffic counted eight to fifteen vessels crossing on August 4, 5 and 6 against roughly 130 before the conflict. The strait is still about 90% closed while headlines said it was reopening.
The June 17 memorandum was signed and collapsed within weeks over routing. That precedent is worth remembering.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤23👍2
Aussie Dollar Now Faces a Critical RBA Forecast Update
AUDUSD is slightly red so far today after six weeks of gains off the early-July low near 0.6885. The 200-day is at roughly 0.6945 and rising, which puts price about 1.7% above support.
RBA announces tonight and the decision itself carries almost no information. Every economist polled expects a hold at 4.35%, and Finder had 92% of its panel on the same side. What matters is the Statement on Monetary Policy, because this is a quarterly forecast meeting.
The setup worth understanding is that both hiking cycles are fading at once. September Fed odds fell to 44% after payrolls contracted. Roughly 58% is priced for another RBA move this year, though three of the four major banks now say 4.35% is the peak.
This rally has been the dollar leg weakening more than the Aussie leg strengthening. Tonight we'll see if Aussie can start contributing to this uptrend.
read the full article here.
— Alan
AUDUSD is slightly red so far today after six weeks of gains off the early-July low near 0.6885. The 200-day is at roughly 0.6945 and rising, which puts price about 1.7% above support.
RBA announces tonight and the decision itself carries almost no information. Every economist polled expects a hold at 4.35%, and Finder had 92% of its panel on the same side. What matters is the Statement on Monetary Policy, because this is a quarterly forecast meeting.
The setup worth understanding is that both hiking cycles are fading at once. September Fed odds fell to 44% after payrolls contracted. Roughly 58% is priced for another RBA move this year, though three of the four major banks now say 4.35% is the peak.
This rally has been the dollar leg weakening more than the Aussie leg strengthening. Tonight we'll see if Aussie can start contributing to this uptrend.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤28👍7
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A declining unemployment rate always indicates an improving labor market
A declining unemployment rate always indicates an improving labor market
Anonymous Quiz
44%
True
56%
False
🫡11❤6🙏1
USDJPY Now Gives Back Half Its Intervention Loss in a Week
USDJPY is at 159.244, back above the 200-day and roughly a full point under the 160.0 resistance level. The intervention move from 163.99 to 155.20 has been retraced 46% in about a week.
The positioning data is the part worth sitting with. Speculators cut net yen shorts by 8.865 billion dollars to 3.604 billion in the week to August 4, the largest reduction in over twelve years. The intervention did its job and flushed the crowded trade. It also cleared the runway, because a near-flat short book is room to rebuild rather than a constraint.
For scale, the record intervention in April and May was followed by fresh 40-year lows about nine weeks later. This one was joint with the US Treasury and it has decayed in a week.
CPI tomorrow could either fuel more downside or cause the carry trade to live on for longer, as higher U.S. rate expectations widen the rate gap.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USDJPY is at 159.244, back above the 200-day and roughly a full point under the 160.0 resistance level. The intervention move from 163.99 to 155.20 has been retraced 46% in about a week.
The positioning data is the part worth sitting with. Speculators cut net yen shorts by 8.865 billion dollars to 3.604 billion in the week to August 4, the largest reduction in over twelve years. The intervention did its job and flushed the crowded trade. It also cleared the runway, because a near-flat short book is room to rebuild rather than a constraint.
For scale, the record intervention in April and May was followed by fresh 40-year lows about nine weeks later. This one was joint with the US Treasury and it has decayed in a week.
CPI tomorrow could either fuel more downside or cause the carry trade to live on for longer, as higher U.S. rate expectations widen the rate gap.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤10👍7