Gold signal in our VIP group is absolutely minting today 🤝
What a drop! Stops being trailed now and updates being sent to members here
What a drop! Stops being trailed now and updates being sent to members here
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Gold Breaks Key Shelf Going Into Fed Minutes
We've watched gold hold a range for some days, roughly 4,220 resistance down to the 4,120 shelf. On October 5 we got a quick poke below that shelf, buyers stepped in fast, and price went right back to range-bound.
However, this morning gold broke the 4,120 shelf with conviction and kept sliding. We're down about 1.5% as of typing, and this is before the FOMC minutes hit at 2pm EST.
Me personally, I thought gold would hold this range into the minutes, then pick a direction once the market read where the Fed sits.
I'm positioned bearish on the metals, watching for longer-term support near the 4,000 handle. The market still prices at least one more hike this year, which keeps pressure on a non-yielding asset while money runs to the dollar. Yields and the dollar are both green today, and that's the weight on gold.
We'll see what the minutes do. I'm NOT looking to add to my position. Simply letting it ride from here.
read the full article here.
— Alan
We've watched gold hold a range for some days, roughly 4,220 resistance down to the 4,120 shelf. On October 5 we got a quick poke below that shelf, buyers stepped in fast, and price went right back to range-bound.
However, this morning gold broke the 4,120 shelf with conviction and kept sliding. We're down about 1.5% as of typing, and this is before the FOMC minutes hit at 2pm EST.
Me personally, I thought gold would hold this range into the minutes, then pick a direction once the market read where the Fed sits.
I'm positioned bearish on the metals, watching for longer-term support near the 4,000 handle. The market still prices at least one more hike this year, which keeps pressure on a non-yielding asset while money runs to the dollar. Yields and the dollar are both green today, and that's the weight on gold.
We'll see what the minutes do. I'm NOT looking to add to my position. Simply letting it ride from here.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤26👍8😍3
Gold vs. Yields:
Here's gold plotted against the dollar and the 10-year yield. Gold is down; however, the dollar and yields are both near their highs for the year.
A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers outside the US. Higher yields raise the cost of holding an asset that pays nothing. Due to this dynamic, gold is facing clear headwinds.
However, gold didn't trade this way earlier in 2026. Gold was on a monster tear, as the big question markets asked was "How many rate cuts are we getting this year?"
Now, markets are on the complete other side of the spectrum, asking "How many rate hikes are we getting?"
As long as yields keep grinding higher and the dollar holds firm, gold stays under pressure.
Here's gold plotted against the dollar and the 10-year yield. Gold is down; however, the dollar and yields are both near their highs for the year.
A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers outside the US. Higher yields raise the cost of holding an asset that pays nothing. Due to this dynamic, gold is facing clear headwinds.
However, gold didn't trade this way earlier in 2026. Gold was on a monster tear, as the big question markets asked was "How many rate cuts are we getting this year?"
Now, markets are on the complete other side of the spectrum, asking "How many rate hikes are we getting?"
As long as yields keep grinding higher and the dollar holds firm, gold stays under pressure.
🔥20❤16😎2
Russell VIP signal update:
Trimming my stop going into Fed Minutes.
Looking for a flush and hold below the 200 Day SMA and support shelf at $2,800
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
Trimming my stop going into Fed Minutes.
Looking for a flush and hold below the 200 Day SMA and support shelf at $2,800
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
❤22
All 19 officials backed the September hike. Most participants see another hike this year as likely appropriate, and almost all view inflation risks tilted to the upside.
They called the job market broadly balanced. A weak labor market is the usual reason to hold, and they don't see one.
A few said current rates aren't restrictive enough yet. Meaning there may be room for at least one more like.
Note: these minutes are from September 16, before the softer data that followed. So the market may shrug. But on their own terms, they point to one more hike this year.
They called the job market broadly balanced. A weak labor market is the usual reason to hold, and they don't see one.
A few said current rates aren't restrictive enough yet. Meaning there may be room for at least one more like.
Note: these minutes are from September 16, before the softer data that followed. So the market may shrug. But on their own terms, they point to one more hike this year.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A long position in a higher-yielding currency earns a net gain if spot is unchanged, ignoring fees.
A long position in a higher-yielding currency earns a net gain if spot is unchanged, ignoring fees.
Anonymous Quiz
66%
True
34%
False
❤16
Russell Leads Market Lower on Hawkish Fed Minutes
Yesterday the Russell cleared two key levels at once. It broke below 2,800 support, which now flips to resistance, and it closed below the 200-day moving average. The Russell is leading on the way down as it's the only major index under its 200-day right now.
Price has also respected the bearish trendline off the August high. It tapped that line in early October, rolled over, and now sits well below it.
Small caps feel higher rates more than anyone. More debt, more floating-rate debt, so climbing yields bite straight into thin margins. Yesterday's FOMC minutes came in hawkish, with most officials expecting one more hike this year. Oil is up about 4% today and yields are higher, with the 2-year jumping. As long as the bond market and oil keep pricing more tightening, the Russell stays under pressure. The next level of support I'm eyeing is 2,700.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Yesterday the Russell cleared two key levels at once. It broke below 2,800 support, which now flips to resistance, and it closed below the 200-day moving average. The Russell is leading on the way down as it's the only major index under its 200-day right now.
Price has also respected the bearish trendline off the August high. It tapped that line in early October, rolled over, and now sits well below it.
Small caps feel higher rates more than anyone. More debt, more floating-rate debt, so climbing yields bite straight into thin margins. Yesterday's FOMC minutes came in hawkish, with most officials expecting one more hike this year. Oil is up about 4% today and yields are higher, with the 2-year jumping. As long as the bond market and oil keep pricing more tightening, the Russell stays under pressure. The next level of support I'm eyeing is 2,700.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤16👍6🫡2
Oil Daily Chart
Looks like a clean idea, however I'd like to short at higher prices, preferably near the recent top end at ~104.
I've also been consistently reading on how most of the Strait dependance has been replaced.
This has been done by alternative sourcing, production, and transportation.
A possible demand cooldown could also be another headwind for Oil.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
Looks like a clean idea, however I'd like to short at higher prices, preferably near the recent top end at ~104.
I've also been consistently reading on how most of the Strait dependance has been replaced.
This has been done by alternative sourcing, production, and transportation.
A possible demand cooldown could also be another headwind for Oil.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
👍15❤8🫡2
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Nominal wages grow 3.8% while CPI runs at 4.5%. What's the most accurate read?
Nominal wages grow 3.8% while CPI runs at 4.5%. What's the most accurate read?
Anonymous Quiz
67%
Real wages are down roughly 0.7%, so purchasing power erodes even though paychecks are rising
12%
Real wages are up 3.8%, since nominal growth is what households actually receive
7%
Real wages are down 8.3%, since the two rates compound against each other
15%
Real wages are up roughly 0.7%, so purchasing power improves even though paychecks are rising
❤11
🔴 Free Webinar: Trading Strategies for 2027
With 2026 coming to a close, taking a step back to review market conditions and prepare for the year ahead is essential.
Join Nick Syiek, Chris Pulver, Marko Greguric, Alan Perez, and James Lane for a free live session breaking down our outlook and top trade ideas heading into 2027.
Key Topics Covered:
➡️ The USD rise and the interest rate cycle
➡️ Gold analysis and key price levels
➡️ Stock market positioning near highs
Event Details:
Date: November 9th at 9:30 AM EST (2:30 PM UK)
Location: Private livestream
Access: Free registration required
A full recording will be sent to all registrants, but joining live allows you to ask questions.
👉 Register here to secure your spot
With 2026 coming to a close, taking a step back to review market conditions and prepare for the year ahead is essential.
Join Nick Syiek, Chris Pulver, Marko Greguric, Alan Perez, and James Lane for a free live session breaking down our outlook and top trade ideas heading into 2027.
Key Topics Covered:
➡️ The USD rise and the interest rate cycle
➡️ Gold analysis and key price levels
➡️ Stock market positioning near highs
Event Details:
Date: November 9th at 9:30 AM EST (2:30 PM UK)
Location: Private livestream
Access: Free registration required
A full recording will be sent to all registrants, but joining live allows you to ask questions.
👉 Register here to secure your spot
🔥11👍7❤5
Are Bonds Now Approaching a Turning Point?
Yesterday bonds got bid up and yields tumbled. A few things are moving under the surface. The AI trade is getting fresh scrutiny, French bonds came under heavy selling, and money market funds just posted their largest weekly inflow since May. It seems like growth headwinds are growing, and money is hunting for safety.
Bond prices sit near serious lows, and the risk/reward is obviously super attractive. Sentiment hit peak pessimism, people calling bonds "bidless with no buyers left", and that kind of extreme often marks a contrarian signal. At these yields you lock in attractive rates on risk-free Treasuries if you need somewhere to park money.
I’m watching the 30-year to roll over. I drew a line at Monday’s open near 5.60%. If yields break below it, we erase the whole week’s gains, and I start looking for a topping pattern in yields and a bottoming pattern in bond prices.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Yesterday bonds got bid up and yields tumbled. A few things are moving under the surface. The AI trade is getting fresh scrutiny, French bonds came under heavy selling, and money market funds just posted their largest weekly inflow since May. It seems like growth headwinds are growing, and money is hunting for safety.
Bond prices sit near serious lows, and the risk/reward is obviously super attractive. Sentiment hit peak pessimism, people calling bonds "bidless with no buyers left", and that kind of extreme often marks a contrarian signal. At these yields you lock in attractive rates on risk-free Treasuries if you need somewhere to park money.
I’m watching the 30-year to roll over. I drew a line at Monday’s open near 5.60%. If yields break below it, we erase the whole week’s gains, and I start looking for a topping pattern in yields and a bottoming pattern in bond prices.
read the full article here.
— Alan
👍15❤3🔥2
TLT 4-Hour Chart
I’m becoming more open to selling some premium down around 75 on TLT.
Assuming there is a bottom nearby, the risk-reward profile looks exceptional.
(that's a big if)
If the current growth headwinds play out, I’m a happy buyer at that level, and I’d bet plenty of others feel the same.
Shout out to Nick and Chris for shining some light on this one.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
I’m becoming more open to selling some premium down around 75 on TLT.
Assuming there is a bottom nearby, the risk-reward profile looks exceptional.
(that's a big if)
If the current growth headwinds play out, I’m a happy buyer at that level, and I’d bet plenty of others feel the same.
Shout out to Nick and Chris for shining some light on this one.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here!
— Alan
👍11❤5
I'm long USD/JPY.
- Primarily a bet on continued dollar strength. I think the fed will remain hawkish for the time being, due to persistent inflation and strong economic growth (due to AI leadership / buildout)
- Stops below, willing to potentially go long again at levels like 156.50 if it makes it there.
- EdgeFinder reading: very bullish, will attach an image
- Nick
- Primarily a bet on continued dollar strength. I think the fed will remain hawkish for the time being, due to persistent inflation and strong economic growth (due to AI leadership / buildout)
- Stops below, willing to potentially go long again at levels like 156.50 if it makes it there.
- EdgeFinder reading: very bullish, will attach an image
- Nick
👍23❤9🙏2