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Dow Down -1.33% as Economy Loses 94,000 Jobs

The Dow is under pressure as risk sentiment turns lower on weak U.S. data. Price action is bleeding, and unless buyers reclaim key intraday levels quickly, the path of least resistance stays to the downside into the close.

Friday’s selloff is being driven by a weaker labor print and what it means for the macro backdrop. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs versus expectations for a +59,000 gain, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% (vs 4.3% expected). That combination raises recession/slowdown fears and adds stress to markets that were already wrestling with the “higher-for-longer” rate regime.

A weakening job market in a still-tight policy environment is a bad mix: slower demand, tighter credit, and less room for earnings multiple expansion.

Retail sales came in slightly better than expected (-0.2% vs -0.3% expected), but it wasn’t enough to offset the labor shock.

- Alan

Oil Above $90 Sends Global Yields Higher as Inflation Shock Gets Priced In

Crude is extending gains into the weekend, with Brent back through $90 for the first time since April 2024.

Estimates suggest the market is losing millions of barrels per day of crude and products due to reduced/blocked traffic through the strait.

Bond markets are reacting exactly how they do during an energy shock: global yields are jumping as investors reprice inflation risk and scale back rate-cut expectations. This move has been broad-based across major markets (U.S., Europe, UK, etc.), and it’s been strong enough to show up as a multi-session selloff in global bonds.

Higher oil → higher inflation expectations → higher yields. That combination tends to keep the USD supported for longer, while pressuring stocks through tighter financial conditions and weighing on gold when the dollar and yields are doing the heavy lifting

- Alan

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S&P 500 Reprices an Oil Shock as Stagflation Risk Hits Equities

The S&P 500 is trading under clear risk-off pressure as equities reprice higher energy costs and tighter financial conditions. In this environment, rallies tend to get sold and volatility stays elevated until oil and rates stabilize.

Global equities are getting hit by an energy-driven macro shock. Oil has surged into 3 digit territory as the Middle East war drags on, reviving “oil shock” and “stagflation” risk: higher inflation with slowing growth. That’s a problem because it comes right after a weak U.S. jobs report, raising fears the labor market is stalling just as price pressures re-accelerate.

Bond markets: yields are rising as inflation expectations climb and rate-cut hopes get pushed back. Higher yields tighten liquidity and weigh on equity multiples, especially in a market that’s already sensitive to policy uncertainty. At the same time, the dollar is catching a safe-haven bid, while gold has struggled to act like a clean hedge

- Alan

Oil Opened Up 28%, Then Faded Lower. Here's Why:

Momentum is being driven by supply risk pricing, not normal macro demand flows.

Events influencing oil’s move higher, then lower (in chronological order)

1. Oil infrastructure was hit for the first time as the conflict spilled into energy assets—most notably the drone strike that led Saudi Aramco to halt operations at Ras Tanura, with broader precautionary shutdowns across the region.

2. Iran selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, a hardline succession that markets read as a negative for near-term de-escalation and resolution odds.

3. With oil now in triple digits, the G7 is meeting Monday to discuss potential emergency reserve releases to try to calm prices and stabilize supply expectations.

As storage fills and logistics break down, major producers have started curbing output—keeping the market tight and the risk premium elevated.

- Alan

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AUD/USD Up 1% as Markets Price RBA Hikes Regardless of the Backdrop

AUD/USD is up about 1% on the day and pushing into a key resistance zone near 0.7150. This is a level that can decide whether the move extends or stalls.

The currency has shown some relative strength during the flash of risk-off trading we saw. Since the U.S.-Iran strikes kicked off on March 1, EdgeFinder’s AUD scorecard has stayed bullish from March 4 through today, showing consistent underlying support.

Last week’s COT data had AUD near the top with +2.6% net accumulation, and the broader Top Setups view continues to flag the AUD basket as the strongest.

The core driver remains rates. Australia’s inflation backdrop has stayed elevated, with CPI around 3.8% across the last four prints. If global inflation spills over from geopolitics, it only reinforces the “higher-for-longer” profile. With the RBA decision next week, markets are now pricing two hikes by August and a strong chance of three by year-end, implying a peak near 4.5%.

- Alan

DXY Safe-Haven Status May Turn Conditional. Watch Out For This:

DXY is softening today as markets price in a higher probability of de-escalation after Trump’s comments.

On the geopolitical front, the administration is signaling the Iran war may be nearing an end, but Defense Secretary Hegseth has warned that airstrikes could intensify. For now, markets are leaning toward resolution risk: oil is down 1.65%, easing the inflation shock and taking some support away from the dollar.

The bigger shift is that USD is starting to trade like a conditional safe haven again. In this specific shock, the U.S. benefits from being relatively closed, energy independent, and geographically insulated—so risk flows can still favor the dollar when uncertainty rises.

Watch oil and yields for directional clues. If oil keeps cooling and yields stay contained, DXY can fade. If oil re-bids and yields push higher, USD support returns quickly as prospects for higher inflation tick up.

- Alan