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AUD/USD Up 1.10% as RBA Hike Bets Rise on Oil-Driven Inflation Risk

AUD/USD is recovering, back near 0.70 after last week’s pullback. This area is important—holding above it keeps the rebound constructive, while rejection would signal the bounce is losing steam.

AUD is catching a bid as markets lean more hawkish on the RBA. Middle East escalation is pushing oil higher and reviving inflation risk, which keeps the “rates up” narrative alive for Australia. Over the weekend, the U.S. struck targets near Kharg Island and warned it could expand attacks on energy infrastructure if Hormuz shipping is disrupted—adding fuel to the inflation story.

The key catalyst is the RBA decision Tuesday. Markets are looking for a second consecutive hike to 4.1%, and are pricing the possibility of additional hikes into year-end, potentially taking the cash rate above the prior cycle peak. If the hike comes through, the real market mover will be guidance—how far the RBA signals it’s willing to go if inflation stays sticky

- Alan

DXY Falls Below 100. 99.5 Becomes the Key Test

DXY has slipped back below 100, easing off last week’s highs. The key zone I’m watching is a pullback into 99.5—how price reacts there will tell us if this is a healthy reset or the start of a deeper unwind.

The dollar is cooling as oil eases and markets reassess Iran-related inflation risk. Signs that Iranian tankers may be allowed through Hormuz have taken heat out of crude, temporarily reducing the inflation shock that was supporting USD. The endgame is still unclear, and headlines can flip sentiment quickly.

The next major catalyst is the Fed later this week. Rates are expected to stay on hold, but traders will focus on how policymakers frame the recent energy spike and what it means for inflation and borrowing costs. Right now, markets are only pricing one 25bp cut, likely not before December.

Oil and yields are the tell. If yields flare, markets are leaning hawkish and USD gets fuel. If yields stay suppressed, dollar upside likely stays capped.

- Alan

The EU Says They Weren't Consulted About The War. So They Shouldn't Pay the Price

EUR/USD is stabilizing after a sharp drop that pushed the pair to its weakest level since last July.

The euro is caught between geopolitics, soft data, and central bank risk. Germany isn’t helping either—investor confidence fell sharply in March as markets worry rising prices could derail the recovery.

On the positive side, EU officials (Kallas) are signaling openness to talks with Iran, stating, “The main concern of EU countries is that they were not consulted on the start of the war in Iran or its objectives.” Following that, Kallas said, “The door is not closed on participation in the Strait of Hormuz, and we have to find diplomatic ways to keep trade open to avoid a food and energy crisis.” This openness to engage Iran supports hopes of restoring oil flows—especially after NATO didn’t step in when Trump called for ships.

Next catalyst is the ECB meeting Thursday, where rates are expected to hold.

- Alan

The Awaited RBA Meeting Is Now Behind Us. Here's What Happened:

AUD/USD is holding firm near 0.709, building on the 1.3% rally from the prior session. Near-term support sits around 0.69500, while resistance is the 0.72000 area (recent multi-year high).

AUD is catching a bid after the RBA delivered a 25bp hike to 4.10%, but the bigger takeaway was the message: the debate was about timing, not direction. Even with a tight 5–4 split, Governor Bullock repeatedly flagged inflation risk and made it clear the board isn’t convinced policy is restrictive enough yet to bring inflation back to target.

Markets took the tone as hawkish and pushed up the probability of another hike in May, while a move to 4.35% remains priced by August. Core inflation around 3.4% is still too sticky, which keeps the tightening bias alive. The split vote also reflects added uncertainty from the Iran conflict—but the signal is still the same: the RBA is leaning toward doing more, not less.

- Alan

DXY Rebounds Toward 100 as Hot PPI and Oil Risk Put the Fed Dot Plot in Focus

DXY is back near 99.9 after dipping toward 99.5 earlier, showing buyers stepping in on the pullback. The next key test remains whether USD can build acceptance back near the 100 handle.

The dollar is firming as inflation pressure re-enters the driver’s seat. Oil is climbing again on headlines that Iranian energy facilities have come under attack, keeping the energy-to-inflation pipeline hot. At the same time, U.S. PPI surprised higher—headline +0.7% MoM and core +0.5% MoM—reinforcing that inflation is still sticky even beyond energy.

Now it’s about the Fed. Rates are expected to stay unchanged, but the market will focus on the dot plot and Powell’s tone. If the Fed revises 2026 expectations toward fewer or no cuts because of higher energy prices, that’s USD-positive and can fuel a quick pop.

- Alan

Gold Slides Toward $4,850 as Hot PPI Lifts Yields and the Dollar

Gold is sliding again, trading down toward the $4,850 area and sitting near its lowest level in about a month. The price action is heavy, and rebounds are struggling to gain traction.

Gold is getting capped by the same macro chain reaction: hotter inflation → higher yields → stronger dollar. February PPI came in hot (+0.7%), pushing US10Y yields toward ~4.2% and lifting DXY near ~99.9 ahead of the Fed decision. That raises the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, which is why gold is struggling even with geopolitical risk still elevated.

Safe-haven demand is still present in the background due to Middle East escalation and continued threats to Gulf energy infrastructure, but right now the market is prioritizing USD liquidity and higher yields over gold.

If inflation stays elevated and yields keep rising, gold could easily see more downside from here.

- Alan

🏆 EDGEFINDER GIVEAWAY
We’re giving one trader full access to the EdgeFinder. A tool designed to help traders understand the macro story behind the markets.

If you want more clarity and context behind your trades, this is for you.

Here’s what EdgeFinder helps you do:
• Identify stronger trade environments using fundamentals and sentiment
• See where institutions are positioned before entering a trade
• Avoid trading against major macro flows
• Add confirmation to your technical setups without overcomplicating your strategy

👉 Enter the giveaway here

USD/JPY Wobbles as BOJ Keeps April Hike in Play and Fed Stays Restrictive

USD/JPY is reacting to a widening policy split: BOJ hawkishness vs. Fed “higher-for-longer” uncertainty. With both sides in play, expect choppy price action and fast intraday swings as rates and risk sentiment reprice.

The yen firmed after Governor Ueda’s remarks were read as hawkish. The BOJ held rates at 0.75%, but Ueda kept the door open to an April hike by emphasizing the bank will keep studying incoming data and improve how it tracks CPI—signaling tightening is still on the table.

At the same time, oil is surging again on attacks tied to Middle East energy infrastructure, reviving inflation risk and complicating central bank decisions.

On the U.S. side, the Fed held rates steady, while Powell stressed uncertainty and made it clear cuts depend on inflation moving closer to target. Markets have responded by pushing easing expectations further out and keeping USD supported near recent highs.

- Alan

The Precious Metal Story Just Got a Whole Lot Worse.

Silver is getting crushed, down 10%+ and sliding toward $65, marking its lowest level since mid-December. The move is impulsive and liquidation-like, with volatility driving outsized downside.

Silver is being hit by a hawkish global rates repricing on top of Iran war-driven volatility. With central banks holding firm and leaning more hawkish, the opportunity cost of owning a non-yielding metal is rising fast.

The Fed stayed on hold but emphasized sticky inflation and conflict risk, with Powell leaving the door open to staying restrictive. The BOJ kept April hike talk alive, and the BoE held but struck a surprisingly hawkish tone. Markets have responded by pushing Fed easing further out and pricing more tightening elsewhere—exactly the kind of backdrop that pressures silver.

You now how the majority of major central banks leaning hawkish. Not good for the non-yielding metal.

- Alan

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