Is the EdgeFinder for daytraders, or swing traders?
The answer?
Yes.
The answer?
Yes.
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Oil Is Chopping Around, But Nonetheless Still Elevated
Oil is ripping higher again, back above $100, as markets reprice geopolitical risk following the collapse in U.S.–Iran talks. The U.S. move to block access to Iranian-linked flows through Hormuz adds another layer of tension to an already constrained route.
On paper, increased control over the strait should ease supply concerns — but that’s not how markets are reading it. The added risk of retaliation and broader regional conflict is keeping a strong risk premium baked into price. That’s what’s driving the move higher.
Fundamentally, the backdrop is still tight. The strait has effectively been restricted for weeks, OPEC output has dropped sharply, and while Saudi is restoring some capacity, it’s not enough to fully offset disruptions.
From a macro lens, this keeps inflation risk elevated and growth concerns in play. Higher energy prices continue to complicate the policy outlook.
- Alan
Oil is ripping higher again, back above $100, as markets reprice geopolitical risk following the collapse in U.S.–Iran talks. The U.S. move to block access to Iranian-linked flows through Hormuz adds another layer of tension to an already constrained route.
On paper, increased control over the strait should ease supply concerns — but that’s not how markets are reading it. The added risk of retaliation and broader regional conflict is keeping a strong risk premium baked into price. That’s what’s driving the move higher.
Fundamentally, the backdrop is still tight. The strait has effectively been restricted for weeks, OPEC output has dropped sharply, and while Saudi is restoring some capacity, it’s not enough to fully offset disruptions.
From a macro lens, this keeps inflation risk elevated and growth concerns in play. Higher energy prices continue to complicate the policy outlook.
- Alan
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A Directional Bias On Dollar Can't Be Made Right Now.
DXY is stuck in a tug-of-war right now with no clear directional bias. On one side, failed negotiations and lingering geopolitical tension are giving the dollar some support as a safe haven.
On the other, any optimism around a resolution keeps risk currencies bid, which caps upside in the dollar. That’s the push-pull dynamic driving price.
According to a BofA survey, investors aren’t fully buying into dollar strength — if anything, there’s a growing conviction that the move higher is temporary. The broader view is that once geopolitical risk fades, the Fed leans dovish, which puts pressure on the dollar longer term.
That’s why you’re seeing reluctance to go long. Short dollar is building as a higher conviction trade, while markets continue to favor risk and front-end rate exposure.
Technically, this results in choppy price action. Until there’s clarity on geopolitics or Fed direction, DXY remains rangebound.
- Alan
DXY is stuck in a tug-of-war right now with no clear directional bias. On one side, failed negotiations and lingering geopolitical tension are giving the dollar some support as a safe haven.
On the other, any optimism around a resolution keeps risk currencies bid, which caps upside in the dollar. That’s the push-pull dynamic driving price.
According to a BofA survey, investors aren’t fully buying into dollar strength — if anything, there’s a growing conviction that the move higher is temporary. The broader view is that once geopolitical risk fades, the Fed leans dovish, which puts pressure on the dollar longer term.
That’s why you’re seeing reluctance to go long. Short dollar is building as a higher conviction trade, while markets continue to favor risk and front-end rate exposure.
Technically, this results in choppy price action. Until there’s clarity on geopolitics or Fed direction, DXY remains rangebound.
- Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When near-term supply disruption fears spike (like a blockade threat), what typically happens to the oil futures curve?
When near-term supply disruption fears spike (like a blockade threat), what typically happens to the oil futures curve?
Anonymous Quiz
14%
Contango — front month falls below back months
32%
Curve steepens — back months rise faster
8%
Curve flattens — all months move equally
46%
Backwardation — front month rises above back months
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We just dropped something super exciting, thanks in part to recommendations from some members here!
📣 Brand new: COT Trends tab within EdgeFinder!
Leveraging the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, this dashboard tracks institutional accumulation and distribution trends across weekly, monthly, and quarterly horizons. By analyzing these shifts, you can pinpoint the directional bias of "smart money" and identify where major institutions are positioning themselves over time.
📣 Brand new: COT Trends tab within EdgeFinder!
Leveraging the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, this dashboard tracks institutional accumulation and distribution trends across weekly, monthly, and quarterly horizons. By analyzing these shifts, you can pinpoint the directional bias of "smart money" and identify where major institutions are positioning themselves over time.
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No Resolution + Double Blockade? It Doesn't Matter for USD
DXY is extending its selloff, on track for its longest losing streak in months as markets lean back toward a softer dollar narrative.
The key driver here is progress on the geopolitical front. Ongoing engagement between the U.S. and Iran, with talks expected to resume, is gradually improving sentiment around a potential resolution. That shift is pulling safe-haven demand out of the dollar and driving the move lower.
There are still points of tension — port blockades and Hormuz disruptions remain — but markets are choosing to focus on the direction of travel. Incremental progress in negotiations is enough to keep pressure on the dollar.
Technically, momentum is clearly to the downside. As long as negotiations continue to move forward, rallies are likely to be faded.
- Alan
DXY is extending its selloff, on track for its longest losing streak in months as markets lean back toward a softer dollar narrative.
The key driver here is progress on the geopolitical front. Ongoing engagement between the U.S. and Iran, with talks expected to resume, is gradually improving sentiment around a potential resolution. That shift is pulling safe-haven demand out of the dollar and driving the move lower.
There are still points of tension — port blockades and Hormuz disruptions remain — but markets are choosing to focus on the direction of travel. Incremental progress in negotiations is enough to keep pressure on the dollar.
Technically, momentum is clearly to the downside. As long as negotiations continue to move forward, rallies are likely to be faded.
- Alan
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The Market Is Now Positive On The Year
PPI came in cooler than expected across the board — but still too hot for the Fed. Inflation at the producer level is easing on the margin, but it’s not anywhere near the 2% target, with energy continuing to drive most of the upside.
This doesn’t give the Fed a reason to cut anytime soon. If anything, it reinforces the shift back toward inflation concerns over growth.
But markets don’t care. Equities are pushing higher regardless, with the S&P now sitting just ~1% off all-time highs. This is a sentiment-driven move, not one backed by clean macro alignment.
That’s where risk comes in. You’re chasing price into highs while inflation is still elevated and the Iran situation remains unresolved.
Technically, upside is stretched. In this “hopium” environment (thanks @ the_contrarian for this perfect verbage), patience matters — waiting for a meaningful pullback is the higher probability play.
- Alan
PPI came in cooler than expected across the board — but still too hot for the Fed. Inflation at the producer level is easing on the margin, but it’s not anywhere near the 2% target, with energy continuing to drive most of the upside.
This doesn’t give the Fed a reason to cut anytime soon. If anything, it reinforces the shift back toward inflation concerns over growth.
But markets don’t care. Equities are pushing higher regardless, with the S&P now sitting just ~1% off all-time highs. This is a sentiment-driven move, not one backed by clean macro alignment.
That’s where risk comes in. You’re chasing price into highs while inflation is still elevated and the Iran situation remains unresolved.
Technically, upside is stretched. In this “hopium” environment (thanks @ the_contrarian for this perfect verbage), patience matters — waiting for a meaningful pullback is the higher probability play.
- Alan
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Was: $1399 ➡️ Now: $839
⭐️ One time payment
⭐️ Top Setups Scanner
⭐️ Asset Scanners
⭐️ Institutional & Sentiment Data
⭐️ Macro & Economic Dashboards
⭐️ Technical Scanners
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
If you risk $100 to potentially make $300, what is your risk-reward ratio?
If you risk $100 to potentially make $300, what is your risk-reward ratio?
Anonymous Quiz
20%
3:1
78%
1:3
1%
1:1
1%
3:3
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Gold Stabilizes as Weaker Dollar and Ceasefire Progress Offer Support
Gold is holding 14% off all-time highs as markets weigh progress in U.S.–Iran talks. There’s growing momentum toward extending the ceasefire, but uncertainty still lingers — especially with continued military presence in the region.
The move higher is being supported by a weaker dollar and a more cautious Fed tone. As rate expectations ease, that takes some pressure off gold and helps stabilize price.
That said, the bigger picture hasn’t fully flipped. Gold is still down meaningfully from earlier in the conflict, as higher yields and tighter policy have capped upside in a non-yielding asset.
For gold to really get back in play, you need a clean shift — lower yields, a more dovish central bank stance, and easing inflation pressures. Most of that likely comes with a full resolution to the conflict.
- Alan
Gold is holding 14% off all-time highs as markets weigh progress in U.S.–Iran talks. There’s growing momentum toward extending the ceasefire, but uncertainty still lingers — especially with continued military presence in the region.
The move higher is being supported by a weaker dollar and a more cautious Fed tone. As rate expectations ease, that takes some pressure off gold and helps stabilize price.
That said, the bigger picture hasn’t fully flipped. Gold is still down meaningfully from earlier in the conflict, as higher yields and tighter policy have capped upside in a non-yielding asset.
For gold to really get back in play, you need a clean shift — lower yields, a more dovish central bank stance, and easing inflation pressures. Most of that likely comes with a full resolution to the conflict.
- Alan
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Risk Currencies Are Getting Bid Up. Here's an update on AUD.
AUD/USD is pushing back toward relative highs as ceasefire extensions and continued progress in talks bring risk back into the market. You’re seeing capital rotate back into risk-sensitive currencies, with the Aussie leading.
On the macro side, AUD has an added tailwind — the RBA already has a tightening bias due to elevated inflation. That yield advantage, combined with improving sentiment, is supporting the move higher.
Markets are now looking ahead to jobs data. A strong print reinforces the case for another hike and adds fuel to the rally. A miss, though, shifts the narrative quickly — especially with signs that growth could be slowing, putting the RBA in a tougher position.
Technically, momentum is to the upside, but it’s data-dependent from here. The next leg will be driven by whether the macro can validate the move.
- Alan
AUD/USD is pushing back toward relative highs as ceasefire extensions and continued progress in talks bring risk back into the market. You’re seeing capital rotate back into risk-sensitive currencies, with the Aussie leading.
On the macro side, AUD has an added tailwind — the RBA already has a tightening bias due to elevated inflation. That yield advantage, combined with improving sentiment, is supporting the move higher.
Markets are now looking ahead to jobs data. A strong print reinforces the case for another hike and adds fuel to the rally. A miss, though, shifts the narrative quickly — especially with signs that growth could be slowing, putting the RBA in a tougher position.
Technically, momentum is to the upside, but it’s data-dependent from here. The next leg will be driven by whether the macro can validate the move.
- Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What ISM Manufacturing PMI reading marks the dividing line between expansion and contraction?
What ISM Manufacturing PMI reading marks the dividing line between expansion and contraction?
Anonymous Quiz
11%
45
73%
50
11%
55
5%
60
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So... we have ANOTHER COT Chart Dropping today: back-to-back!
We've renamed this to "COT Trends", and the other new COT chart to "COT Velocity"
Visualize institutional accumulation and distribution using the latest COT data. This tool plots net long exposure over time, allowing you to track "Smart Money" momentum across multiple assets simultaneously. Toggle symbols to compare historical positioning and identify high-conviction trends.
- Nick
We've renamed this to "COT Trends", and the other new COT chart to "COT Velocity"
Visualize institutional accumulation and distribution using the latest COT data. This tool plots net long exposure over time, allowing you to track "Smart Money" momentum across multiple assets simultaneously. Toggle symbols to compare historical positioning and identify high-conviction trends.
- Nick
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