So... we have ANOTHER COT Chart Dropping today: back-to-back!
We've renamed this to "COT Trends", and the other new COT chart to "COT Velocity"
Visualize institutional accumulation and distribution using the latest COT data. This tool plots net long exposure over time, allowing you to track "Smart Money" momentum across multiple assets simultaneously. Toggle symbols to compare historical positioning and identify high-conviction trends.
- Nick
We've renamed this to "COT Trends", and the other new COT chart to "COT Velocity"
Visualize institutional accumulation and distribution using the latest COT data. This tool plots net long exposure over time, allowing you to track "Smart Money" momentum across multiple assets simultaneously. Toggle symbols to compare historical positioning and identify high-conviction trends.
- Nick
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If you don't have access to EdgeFinder yet, now is the BEST time of the year to pick up a copy before our sale ends.
You can save 40% on your copy here
Have questions? Need a payment plan? Chat with our team here
Don't miss out. The EdgeFinder only gets better with time, and our prices will be going up. Buy the dip!
- Nick
You can save 40% on your copy here
Have questions? Need a payment plan? Chat with our team here
Don't miss out. The EdgeFinder only gets better with time, and our prices will be going up. Buy the dip!
- Nick
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VIX Down 48% From Peak War Fear Levels
The VIX has cooled back below $20, now down roughly 48% from the Middle East war highs. Seems like the panic bid is gone, and markets are no longer pricing in immediate tail risk.
What this tells you is sentiment has shifted. We’ve gone from fear-driven positioning to a more neutral, even slightly complacent tone. As geopolitical tensions ease and headlines improve, hedging demand falls off, and that pressure comes out of volatility.
For markets, this typically supports risk. Lower vol means tighter spreads, more confidence in positioning, and a smoother path for equities to grind higher. But at the same time, a sharp drop like this can also mean markets are getting a bit too comfortable.
So while the move lower in VIX reflects stability and improving sentiment, it also leaves less room for error. Any negative surprise — whether it’s geopolitics, inflation, or policy — can reprice volatility quickly from these levels.
- Alan
The VIX has cooled back below $20, now down roughly 48% from the Middle East war highs. Seems like the panic bid is gone, and markets are no longer pricing in immediate tail risk.
What this tells you is sentiment has shifted. We’ve gone from fear-driven positioning to a more neutral, even slightly complacent tone. As geopolitical tensions ease and headlines improve, hedging demand falls off, and that pressure comes out of volatility.
For markets, this typically supports risk. Lower vol means tighter spreads, more confidence in positioning, and a smoother path for equities to grind higher. But at the same time, a sharp drop like this can also mean markets are getting a bit too comfortable.
So while the move lower in VIX reflects stability and improving sentiment, it also leaves less room for error. Any negative surprise — whether it’s geopolitics, inflation, or policy — can reprice volatility quickly from these levels.
- Alan
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The Fed Is Now Balancing Inflation and Growth
Yields are stabilizing around 4.28% after a volatile week, as markets start to lean toward a potential resolution in the Middle East. Growing optimism around a deal — and even partial reopening of key shipping routes — has helped ease some of the inflation pressure tied to oil.
That’s been the driver behind the recent pullback in yields. As energy prices cool, markets are dialing back expectations for further tightening and reassessing the rate path.
But it’s not a clean shift. The Fed is still in wait-and-see mode, balancing persistent inflation risks with a labor market that remains stable. Rate cut expectations have been scaled back significantly from earlier in the year.
From a macro standpoint, this is a balancing act. Oil and tariffs are keeping inflation elevated, while labor conditions continue to hold up. That leaves yields rangebound as markets try to figure out what matters more — inflation or growth.
- Alan
Yields are stabilizing around 4.28% after a volatile week, as markets start to lean toward a potential resolution in the Middle East. Growing optimism around a deal — and even partial reopening of key shipping routes — has helped ease some of the inflation pressure tied to oil.
That’s been the driver behind the recent pullback in yields. As energy prices cool, markets are dialing back expectations for further tightening and reassessing the rate path.
But it’s not a clean shift. The Fed is still in wait-and-see mode, balancing persistent inflation risks with a labor market that remains stable. Rate cut expectations have been scaled back significantly from earlier in the year.
From a macro standpoint, this is a balancing act. Oil and tariffs are keeping inflation elevated, while labor conditions continue to hold up. That leaves yields rangebound as markets try to figure out what matters more — inflation or growth.
- Alan
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Gold Membership (Lifetime)
Was: $999 ➡️ Now: $599
⭐️ One time payment
⭐️ Access to Nick, Marko, and Eivind's trade signals
⭐️ Forex, Indices, Commodities, Options, & Stock Signals
⭐️ Trading Chatrooms
⭐️ Trade Tracker — Dashboard tracking our live trades
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When overnight repo rates spike well above the Fed funds rate, what does this indicate?
When overnight repo rates spike well above the Fed funds rate, what does this indicate?
Anonymous Quiz
34%
Excess liquidity in the banking system
30%
Cash shortage and collateral hoarding
29%
The Fed is tightening policy
7%
Treasury issuance is declining
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GBP/USD Direction Is Getting Cloudy
UK developments are coming in mixed, but with the Strait of Hormuz open, inflation fears tied to energy are easing — and that’s pulling UK yields lower across the curve.
As a result, rate expectations are being repriced. Markets have scaled back how aggressive they think the Bank of England will be, with far fewer hikes priced in versus just a week ago.
At the same time, BoE officials aren’t fully aligned. Some are still pushing the need to stay focused on inflation, while others are more comfortable with holding steady as uncertainty plays out.
From a macro lens, the UK is in a tough spot. Inflation risks are still there, but growth isn’t collapsing — recent data actually showed some resilience. So now it becomes a balancing act between sticky inflation and a fragile growth backdrop.
For GBP/USD, this leaves things more rangebound. Direction from here likely depends on how inflation evolves and whether the BoE leans back into tightening or stays patient.
- Alan
UK developments are coming in mixed, but with the Strait of Hormuz open, inflation fears tied to energy are easing — and that’s pulling UK yields lower across the curve.
As a result, rate expectations are being repriced. Markets have scaled back how aggressive they think the Bank of England will be, with far fewer hikes priced in versus just a week ago.
At the same time, BoE officials aren’t fully aligned. Some are still pushing the need to stay focused on inflation, while others are more comfortable with holding steady as uncertainty plays out.
From a macro lens, the UK is in a tough spot. Inflation risks are still there, but growth isn’t collapsing — recent data actually showed some resilience. So now it becomes a balancing act between sticky inflation and a fragile growth backdrop.
For GBP/USD, this leaves things more rangebound. Direction from here likely depends on how inflation evolves and whether the BoE leans back into tightening or stays patient.
- Alan
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Happy Friday! De-Escalation Momentum Picks Up
Oil is down nearly 15% on the back of very constructive headlines out of the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is confirmed open during the ceasefire, with Iran signaling it will remain accessible — a major shift given how critical that route is for global supply.
Markets are quickly repricing the risk. What was a major supply shock for nearly two months is now being unwound, with additional tailwinds coming from potential US-Iran agreements and further negotiations ahead.
This is a clean risk-on signal. Energy is cooling, pressure is coming off inflation, and markets are responding accordingly.
But be careful chasing this move. Oil doesn’t move in straight lines — and after a drop like this, you have to expect some level of stabilization or bounce, especially if headlines stall or reverse.
- Alan
Oil is down nearly 15% on the back of very constructive headlines out of the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is confirmed open during the ceasefire, with Iran signaling it will remain accessible — a major shift given how critical that route is for global supply.
Markets are quickly repricing the risk. What was a major supply shock for nearly two months is now being unwound, with additional tailwinds coming from potential US-Iran agreements and further negotiations ahead.
This is a clean risk-on signal. Energy is cooling, pressure is coming off inflation, and markets are responding accordingly.
But be careful chasing this move. Oil doesn’t move in straight lines — and after a drop like this, you have to expect some level of stabilization or bounce, especially if headlines stall or reverse.
- Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When the yen strengthens sharply and unexpectedly, why do global risk assets often sell off simultaneously?
When the yen strengthens sharply and unexpectedly, why do global risk assets often sell off simultaneously?
Anonymous Quiz
11%
Japan is a major oil importer, hurting global demand
52%
Carry trades unwind — leveraged positions funded in yen get liquidated
22%
The BOJ is selling US Treasuries
15%
Yen strength signals rising Japanese inflation
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A highly liquid market allows traders to:
A highly liquid market allows traders to:
Anonymous Quiz
22%
Execute large orders without moving the market
16%
Get filled at the exact price displayed at order entry
17%
Avoid spread costs entirely due to high trading volume
45%
Enter and exit positions with minimal slippage
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Will Kevin Warsh Lean Dovish?
DXY is stalling right at that $98 support level, with pressure largely coming from improving sentiment around the Middle East. As de-escalation hopes build, the dollar is losing some of its safe-haven bid.
Price action reflects that tug-of-war. You’ve still got underlying tension — with the U.S. maintaining pressure and headlines flipping back and forth — but markets are leaning toward a negotiation outcome. That’s keeping the dollar from breaking higher.
Today’s key catalyst is Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. If he leans dovish in his Senate hearing and opens the door to rate cuts, that would likely push short-term rates and real yields lower — a clear negative for the dollar.
- Alan
DXY is stalling right at that $98 support level, with pressure largely coming from improving sentiment around the Middle East. As de-escalation hopes build, the dollar is losing some of its safe-haven bid.
Price action reflects that tug-of-war. You’ve still got underlying tension — with the U.S. maintaining pressure and headlines flipping back and forth — but markets are leaning toward a negotiation outcome. That’s keeping the dollar from breaking higher.
Today’s key catalyst is Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. If he leans dovish in his Senate hearing and opens the door to rate cuts, that would likely push short-term rates and real yields lower — a clear negative for the dollar.
- Alan
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Can Gold Gain Its Shine Again?
Gold is struggling to gain traction, hovering just below $4,800 as markets balance ongoing Middle East tensions with the potential for negotiations. Despite the geopolitical backdrop, it hasn’t caught a strong safe-haven bid.
The bigger driver has been macro. The energy shock pushed inflation expectations higher and kept rate hike risks alive, while strong US data — especially on the consumer side — has reduced urgency to move into gold. That combination has weighed on price, with gold down over 8% since the conflict began.
Now the narrative may be shifting. With a potential end to the war, oil cooling, and a new Fed chair in focus, the setup for gold could start improving — especially if yields begin to soften and policy leans more dovish.
From a positioning standpoint, gold is starting to stabilize. EdgeFinder has it at a Neutral +4, right on the edge of turning bullish, with solid support sitting in that $4,400–$4,200 range.
- Alan
Gold is struggling to gain traction, hovering just below $4,800 as markets balance ongoing Middle East tensions with the potential for negotiations. Despite the geopolitical backdrop, it hasn’t caught a strong safe-haven bid.
The bigger driver has been macro. The energy shock pushed inflation expectations higher and kept rate hike risks alive, while strong US data — especially on the consumer side — has reduced urgency to move into gold. That combination has weighed on price, with gold down over 8% since the conflict began.
Now the narrative may be shifting. With a potential end to the war, oil cooling, and a new Fed chair in focus, the setup for gold could start improving — especially if yields begin to soften and policy leans more dovish.
From a positioning standpoint, gold is starting to stabilize. EdgeFinder has it at a Neutral +4, right on the edge of turning bullish, with solid support sitting in that $4,400–$4,200 range.
- Alan
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Gold Bias🤔
Chart of the Day: XAU/USD🔥
Chart of the Day: XAU/USD🔥
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When government debt levels become so large that the central bank can no longer freely raise rates, this is called:
When government debt levels become so large that the central bank can no longer freely raise rates, this is called:
Anonymous Quiz
16%
Monetary neutrality — rates lose all economic impact
51%
Fiscal dominance — debt constraints override monetary policy
13%
Yield curve control — the central bank fixes all rates permanently
20%
Debt monetization — the government eliminates its obligations entirely
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