Will Equities Fold Or Keep Moving In A Straight Line Up? Watch Out For This:
S&P 500 sitting right at all-time highs after erasing the entire Iran war selloff in under two weeks.
This week is the test. Companies representing 44% of the index's market cap report — Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta on Wednesday, Apple on Thursday. So far, 81.3% of reporters have beaten expectations, above the four-quarter average. But Q1 results only capture roughly one month of war disruption. The real margin pressure from surging energy costs hasn't fully hit yet.
The Fed holds Wednesday in what could be one of Powell's final meetings before Warsh takes the chair. A hold is fully priced — the press conference is what matters, particularly any shift in tone on inflation as oil holds above $95.
Markets are pricing peace and peak earnings at the same time. If both hold, the rally extends. If guidance cracks or the Iran stalemate deepens, these are the levels where the unwind starts.
- Alan
S&P 500 sitting right at all-time highs after erasing the entire Iran war selloff in under two weeks.
This week is the test. Companies representing 44% of the index's market cap report — Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta on Wednesday, Apple on Thursday. So far, 81.3% of reporters have beaten expectations, above the four-quarter average. But Q1 results only capture roughly one month of war disruption. The real margin pressure from surging energy costs hasn't fully hit yet.
The Fed holds Wednesday in what could be one of Powell's final meetings before Warsh takes the chair. A hold is fully priced — the press conference is what matters, particularly any shift in tone on inflation as oil holds above $95.
Markets are pricing peace and peak earnings at the same time. If both hold, the rally extends. If guidance cracks or the Iran stalemate deepens, these are the levels where the unwind starts.
- Alan
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Japan Needs To Walk A Tight Rope Tonight
The BOJ is widely expected to hold rates unchanged, but the press conference is what matters. Governor Ueda needs to thread an impossible needle — signal willingness to normalize without igniting yen weakness into the 160 intervention zone. The BOJ is expected to raise inflation forecasts while cutting growth projections, reflecting the energy shock from the Middle East. Japan's heavy reliance on imported oil makes surging crude a direct headwind.
Wednesday's Fed decision adds a second layer. Powell is expected to hold at 3.50–3.75%, but his presser will set the tone for the rate differential that drives this pair. A hawkish lean from the Fed while the BOJ stays dovish would widen the gap and push USD/JPY toward the danger zone.
This is a rate sandwich. Dovish Ueda tonight could spike USD/JPY into 160 and force Tokyo's hand. Hawkish surprise tightens the range. Either way, volatility is coming — size accordingly.
- Alan
The BOJ is widely expected to hold rates unchanged, but the press conference is what matters. Governor Ueda needs to thread an impossible needle — signal willingness to normalize without igniting yen weakness into the 160 intervention zone. The BOJ is expected to raise inflation forecasts while cutting growth projections, reflecting the energy shock from the Middle East. Japan's heavy reliance on imported oil makes surging crude a direct headwind.
Wednesday's Fed decision adds a second layer. Powell is expected to hold at 3.50–3.75%, but his presser will set the tone for the rate differential that drives this pair. A hawkish lean from the Fed while the BOJ stays dovish would widen the gap and push USD/JPY toward the danger zone.
This is a rate sandwich. Dovish Ueda tonight could spike USD/JPY into 160 and force Tokyo's hand. Hawkish surprise tightens the range. Either way, volatility is coming — size accordingly.
- Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A limit order differs from a market order because it:
A limit order differs from a market order because it:
Anonymous Quiz
82%
Executes only at your specified price or better
8%
Guarantees immediate fill under all market conditions
7%
Eliminates slippage entirely on every trade
3%
Is only available to institutional traders
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The ECB's Problem Is Worse Than The Fed's.
EUR/USD at 1.17, testing the bottom of a well-defined support zone. But with both the Fed and ECB deciding within 24 hours of each other, this support could either confirm or flip to resistance by Friday.
Markets are pricing 69bps of ECB hikes by year-end — a dramatic shift from last year's cutting cycle. Eurozone inflation is expected to hit 2.9% in April, the highest since late 2023, entirely driven by the energy shock. That repricing is what's been keeping the euro supported despite deteriorating growth underneath.
The other side: the Fed holds Wednesday with rate cuts effectively off the table for 2026. The US economy is outperforming, PMIs are expanding, and the dollar has a yield advantage. If Powell leans hawkish on inflation while the ECB sounds cautious on growth Thursday, the divergence trade reloads and 1.1700 breaks lower.
The ECB is trapped between hiking into contraction or letting inflation run. The Fed just has to sit and wait.
- Alan
EUR/USD at 1.17, testing the bottom of a well-defined support zone. But with both the Fed and ECB deciding within 24 hours of each other, this support could either confirm or flip to resistance by Friday.
Markets are pricing 69bps of ECB hikes by year-end — a dramatic shift from last year's cutting cycle. Eurozone inflation is expected to hit 2.9% in April, the highest since late 2023, entirely driven by the energy shock. That repricing is what's been keeping the euro supported despite deteriorating growth underneath.
The other side: the Fed holds Wednesday with rate cuts effectively off the table for 2026. The US economy is outperforming, PMIs are expanding, and the dollar has a yield advantage. If Powell leans hawkish on inflation while the ECB sounds cautious on growth Thursday, the divergence trade reloads and 1.1700 breaks lower.
The ECB is trapped between hiking into contraction or letting inflation run. The Fed just has to sit and wait.
- Alan
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Priced For Hikes, But It's Not Guaranteed. (GBP/USD)
GBP/USD at 1.3493, sliding back toward the lower end of the daily range. Price is sitting just below a well-tested resistance zone.
The BoE holds Thursday with an 8-1 vote expected — only the most hawkish MPC member likely to push for a hike. But here's the nuance: markets have already priced two hikes, and that repricing alone has tightened financial conditions enough to slow activity. Berenberg's Wishart argues the BoE may not need to follow through and could return to cuts by year-end.
Sterling is also absorbing political drag. Starmer's Mandelson controversy ahead of May 7 local elections is adding noise, with Labour expected to take significant losses. Not a primary driver, but it layers uncertainty at the margins.
Three central banks this week. GBP's direction depends less on the BoE's hold and more on the collective tone. If the Fed leans hawkish while the BoE signals patience, dollar strength resumes and this 1.35 area gives way.
- Alan
GBP/USD at 1.3493, sliding back toward the lower end of the daily range. Price is sitting just below a well-tested resistance zone.
The BoE holds Thursday with an 8-1 vote expected — only the most hawkish MPC member likely to push for a hike. But here's the nuance: markets have already priced two hikes, and that repricing alone has tightened financial conditions enough to slow activity. Berenberg's Wishart argues the BoE may not need to follow through and could return to cuts by year-end.
Sterling is also absorbing political drag. Starmer's Mandelson controversy ahead of May 7 local elections is adding noise, with Labour expected to take significant losses. Not a primary driver, but it layers uncertainty at the margins.
Three central banks this week. GBP's direction depends less on the BoE's hold and more on the collective tone. If the Fed leans hawkish while the BoE signals patience, dollar strength resumes and this 1.35 area gives way.
- Alan
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ServiceNow analysis:
The bull case for NOW, according to StockBox's scorecard, is that the market is currently "mispricing" a high-growth, high-efficiency software giant. By almost every metric—whether it's earnings, sales, or cash flow—the stock is trading at a steep discount to its historical norms while still maintaining double-digit revenue growth.
I personally will continue to look for opportunities to add shares of this stock to my personal portfolio.
Note: This is a log of my personal trading activity and opinions for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. A1 Trading is not responsible for your investment decisions.
The bull case for NOW, according to StockBox's scorecard, is that the market is currently "mispricing" a high-growth, high-efficiency software giant. By almost every metric—whether it's earnings, sales, or cash flow—the stock is trading at a steep discount to its historical norms while still maintaining double-digit revenue growth.
I personally will continue to look for opportunities to add shares of this stock to my personal portfolio.
Note: This is a log of my personal trading activity and opinions for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. A1 Trading is not responsible for your investment decisions.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is often criticized because:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is often criticized because:
Anonymous Quiz
15%
It tracks every global currency equally
37%
It's heavily weighted toward the euro (~58%), skewing its signal
10%
It has been completely replaced by trade-weighted alternatives
38%
Currency indices never reflect actual dollar strength
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That’s the simplest way to think about StockBox.
It follows the same core idea. Take large amounts of data, organize it, and turn it into something you can actually use in your analysis, but with a deeper focus on individual stocks and company-specific data.
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Oil Inventories Are Dropping Fast And The Blockade May Get Extended
WTI above $103, third straight session of gain. Price is back in breakout mode with the only technical resistance nearby is ~117.
The supply picture is tightening fast. US crude inventories fell 6.2M barrels vs expectations of just 0.2M. Gasoline stocks dropped 6.1M barrels, nearly triple the forecast. Distillates down 4.5M vs 2.2M expected. Across the board, draws are accelerating as the Strait of Hormuz shutdown — roughly 20% of global oil shipments — squeezes supply chains the IEA is calling the largest supply shock on record.
The UAE's exit from OPEC effective May 1 is the structural story. It doesn't change supply today — Hormuz is closed anyway — but post-war, the UAE will pump without quota constraints, targeting 5M bpd. That's long-term bearish, but irrelevant at $103.
Near-term, there's no relief valve. Peace talks are stalled, Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal, and Washington is escalating sanctions pressure.
- Alan
WTI above $103, third straight session of gain. Price is back in breakout mode with the only technical resistance nearby is ~117.
The supply picture is tightening fast. US crude inventories fell 6.2M barrels vs expectations of just 0.2M. Gasoline stocks dropped 6.1M barrels, nearly triple the forecast. Distillates down 4.5M vs 2.2M expected. Across the board, draws are accelerating as the Strait of Hormuz shutdown — roughly 20% of global oil shipments — squeezes supply chains the IEA is calling the largest supply shock on record.
The UAE's exit from OPEC effective May 1 is the structural story. It doesn't change supply today — Hormuz is closed anyway — but post-war, the UAE will pump without quota constraints, targeting 5M bpd. That's long-term bearish, but irrelevant at $103.
Near-term, there's no relief valve. Peace talks are stalled, Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal, and Washington is escalating sanctions pressure.
- Alan
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Two Centrals Banks Battle It Out Today (USD/CAD)
USD/CAD is coiling ahead of what could be the most consequential 24 hours for this chart in months — the BoC just spoke, and the Fed speaks at 1:00 PM CT.
The BoC held at 2.25% as expected, fourth consecutive hold. The key language: Macklem is "looking through" the war's immediate inflation impact but warned the BoC will not let higher energy prices become persistent. CPI is expected to hit 3% in April. GDP forecast held at a soft 1.2%. The door to hikes is open but they're not walking through it yet.
Canada's oil-exporter status is the wildcard. With WTI above $103, energy revenues are flooding in and supporting the loonie. But the broad dollar bid and soft domestic growth are capping the downside in USD/CAD.
Now it's Powell's turn. A hawkish lean on inflation pushes USD/CAD higher. A neutral-to-dovish tone lets the oil-driven CAD bid take over.
- Alan
USD/CAD is coiling ahead of what could be the most consequential 24 hours for this chart in months — the BoC just spoke, and the Fed speaks at 1:00 PM CT.
The BoC held at 2.25% as expected, fourth consecutive hold. The key language: Macklem is "looking through" the war's immediate inflation impact but warned the BoC will not let higher energy prices become persistent. CPI is expected to hit 3% in April. GDP forecast held at a soft 1.2%. The door to hikes is open but they're not walking through it yet.
Canada's oil-exporter status is the wildcard. With WTI above $103, energy revenues are flooding in and supporting the loonie. But the broad dollar bid and soft domestic growth are capping the downside in USD/CAD.
Now it's Powell's turn. A hawkish lean on inflation pushes USD/CAD higher. A neutral-to-dovish tone lets the oil-driven CAD bid take over.
- Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Three dissenters today opposed the Fed's forward guidance language, not the hold itself. They wanted to drop the "easing bias." What does removing an easing bias signal?
Three dissenters today opposed the Fed's forward guidance language, not the hold itself. They wanted to drop the "easing bias." What does removing an easing bias signal?
Anonymous Quiz
70%
The Fed is shifting from leaning toward cuts to a more neutral or data-dependent stance
10%
A rate hike is guaranteed at the next meeting
14%
Rate cuts are permanently off the table for the cycle
6%
The Fed has fully lost control of monetary policy
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