Happy Friday 🙂 I've got some runners going today!
- Nick
- Nick
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DXY Analysis: The Apetite For Risk Is Strong
DXY slipping on Friday, on pace for a second straight weekly decline. The dollar's safe-haven bid is fading as investors grow cautiously optimistic about a deal to end the Iran conflict. The rotation is clear — money is drifting out of USD and into riskier currencies.
April payrolls beat expectations while unemployment held at 4.3%, but the market barely flinched. Payrolls have been choppy since mid-2025, alternating between gains and losses — one print isn't changing anyone's thesis. The trend leans toward softening and points firmly to a Fed on hold.
The broader dynamic: the dollar rallied on war fears and Hormuz disruptions. If those unwind, the premium unwinds with it. Traders who piled into USD as a safe haven are now unwinding as peace talks progress.
A deal weakens the dollar further as the risk premium evaporates. A collapse in talks sends DXY right back up. Until then, path of least resistance is lower while ceasefire optimism holds.
- Alan
DXY slipping on Friday, on pace for a second straight weekly decline. The dollar's safe-haven bid is fading as investors grow cautiously optimistic about a deal to end the Iran conflict. The rotation is clear — money is drifting out of USD and into riskier currencies.
April payrolls beat expectations while unemployment held at 4.3%, but the market barely flinched. Payrolls have been choppy since mid-2025, alternating between gains and losses — one print isn't changing anyone's thesis. The trend leans toward softening and points firmly to a Fed on hold.
The broader dynamic: the dollar rallied on war fears and Hormuz disruptions. If those unwind, the premium unwinds with it. Traders who piled into USD as a safe haven are now unwinding as peace talks progress.
A deal weakens the dollar further as the risk premium evaporates. A collapse in talks sends DXY right back up. Until then, path of least resistance is lower while ceasefire optimism holds.
- Alan
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Canadian Dollar: The Economy Lost 18,000 Jobs In April
Canada lost 18,000 jobs in April vs +15,000 expected. Unemployment at 6.9%, a six-month high. 111,000 full-time jobs lost since January. Businesses aren't firing, they're frozen. Tariffs, the war, and unclear BoC direction created a hiring freeze.
Oil has been CAD's best friend since March — WTI surging from $67 to $120 pulled USD/CAD from 1.40 toward 1.36. But oil crashed 12% this week on peace deal headlines. If a deal lands and WTI trends toward $80–90, the loonie's biggest tailwind disappears.
The jobs miss gives the BoC every reason to hold at 2.25%. Wages cooling from 5.1% to 4.8% kills the sticky-wages argument for a hike. The labor market is building slack, not overheating.
CAD is in limbo. The commodity bid is fading and there's no rate support to replace it. A peace deal is bearish for the loonie — counterintuitive, but that's just how it is.
- Alan
Canada lost 18,000 jobs in April vs +15,000 expected. Unemployment at 6.9%, a six-month high. 111,000 full-time jobs lost since January. Businesses aren't firing, they're frozen. Tariffs, the war, and unclear BoC direction created a hiring freeze.
Oil has been CAD's best friend since March — WTI surging from $67 to $120 pulled USD/CAD from 1.40 toward 1.36. But oil crashed 12% this week on peace deal headlines. If a deal lands and WTI trends toward $80–90, the loonie's biggest tailwind disappears.
The jobs miss gives the BoC every reason to hold at 2.25%. Wages cooling from 5.1% to 4.8% kills the sticky-wages argument for a hike. The labor market is building slack, not overheating.
CAD is in limbo. The commodity bid is fading and there's no rate support to replace it. A peace deal is bearish for the loonie — counterintuitive, but that's just how it is.
- Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The Treasury basis trade (long cash Treasuries, short futures) blew up in March 2020. What made it dangerous?
The Treasury basis trade (long cash Treasuries, short futures) blew up in March 2020. What made it dangerous?
Anonymous Quiz
8%
The trade was inherently unprofitable from the start
56%
Massive leverage amplified small dislocations — when liquidity vanished, forced unwinds cascaded
22%
The Fed caused the blowup by cutting rates to zero immediately
14%
Basis trades carry zero risk because Treasuries are risk-free assets
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Gold Analysis: The Inflation Story Continues Strong
Gold dropped 1% to $4,650 after Trump blasted Iran's peace proposal as "totally unacceptable." The counterintuitive move continues — escalation that should support gold is actually hurting it because of what it does to oil and inflation expectations.
The mechanism is simple. War escalates, oil surges, inflation fears rise, rate hike expectations firm up, yields stay elevated, and gold — a non-yielding asset — loses its appeal to bonds and cash that actually pay. Dollar strength adds another layer of pressure, making bullion more expensive for foreign buyers.
Gold is supposed to be the geopolitical hedge, but this war is producing the one outcome gold can't overcome — persistent inflation that keeps central banks hawkish and real yields elevated.
April CPI this week is the next catalyst. A hot print reinforces the higher-for-longer rate narrative and keeps gold capped. A softer read gives bulls room to breathe.
- Alan
Gold dropped 1% to $4,650 after Trump blasted Iran's peace proposal as "totally unacceptable." The counterintuitive move continues — escalation that should support gold is actually hurting it because of what it does to oil and inflation expectations.
The mechanism is simple. War escalates, oil surges, inflation fears rise, rate hike expectations firm up, yields stay elevated, and gold — a non-yielding asset — loses its appeal to bonds and cash that actually pay. Dollar strength adds another layer of pressure, making bullion more expensive for foreign buyers.
Gold is supposed to be the geopolitical hedge, but this war is producing the one outcome gold can't overcome — persistent inflation that keeps central banks hawkish and real yields elevated.
April CPI this week is the next catalyst. A hot print reinforces the higher-for-longer rate narrative and keeps gold capped. A softer read gives bulls room to breathe.
- Alan
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Bonds Analysis: Starting Off The Week With Yields Higher
The 10-year climbing back to 4.39% after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." The 30-year briefly topped 5% last week. Yields are being pulled higher by persistent inflation fears as oil stays elevated and the war drags on with no resolution in sight.
Friday's NFP beat — 115K vs 62K expected — reinforced the Fed's hold stance. Unemployment steady at 4.3%, wage growth soft at 0.2% MoM. The labor market isn't breaking, but it's not overheating either. Markets now price roughly a 40% chance of a hike by April 2027. Rate cuts are off the table entirely.
April CPI drops this week — the most important print in months. Traders need to see how surging oil is feeding through to broader prices. A hot number pushes yields higher and locks in the "higher for longer" narrative. A soft print gives the bond market room to breathe.
Until either oil drops or CPI cools, yields stay sticky near these levels.
- Alan
The 10-year climbing back to 4.39% after Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." The 30-year briefly topped 5% last week. Yields are being pulled higher by persistent inflation fears as oil stays elevated and the war drags on with no resolution in sight.
Friday's NFP beat — 115K vs 62K expected — reinforced the Fed's hold stance. Unemployment steady at 4.3%, wage growth soft at 0.2% MoM. The labor market isn't breaking, but it's not overheating either. Markets now price roughly a 40% chance of a hike by April 2027. Rate cuts are off the table entirely.
April CPI drops this week — the most important print in months. Traders need to see how surging oil is feeding through to broader prices. A hot number pushes yields higher and locks in the "higher for longer" narrative. A soft print gives the bond market room to breathe.
Until either oil drops or CPI cools, yields stay sticky near these levels.
- Alan
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We put together a FREE Getting Funded Course that breaks down the prop firm process without the hype.
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You’ll also get insights directly from A1 analyst Marko, who’s been through the process himself and is a funded trader — sharing what actually matters (and what usually causes traders to fail).
What the free course covers:
- How prop firms really work (and when getting funded actually makes sense)
- The truth about “$100K funded accounts”
- A realistic timeline for getting funded
- Why most traders fail challenges — and what to do instead
- How to choose a legit prop firm (and avoid red flags)
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When the equity put/call ratio spikes to extreme highs, what does this typically signal?
When the equity put/call ratio spikes to extreme highs, what does this typically signal?
Anonymous Quiz
25%
The market is overwhelmingly bullish — calls are dominating
59%
Excessive fear and hedging demand — often a contrarian signal that a bounce is near
11%
Extreme put/call readings always produce a reversal within 24 hours without exception
5%
The ratio has no relationship to market sentiment or positioning
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DXY Analysis: The Fed Is Now Forzen With "Hike Risk"
April CPI came in hot — 3.8% YoY, highest since May 2023, above the 3.7% forecast. Core CPI hit 2.8%, also above expectations at 0.4% MoM. Energy accounted for over 40% of the total increase. Gasoline up 28.4% YoY. Inflation was 2.4% before the war started. It's now nearly doubled in two months.
The Fed's position just shifted. They were frozen — couldn't cut, wouldn't hike. Now they're frozen with hike risk. Traders raised hike odds to ~30% by year-end. Bank of America doesn't see a cut until second half of 2027. Real wages fell 0.5% in April — the first time in three years inflation is eating all wage gains.
The core print is what matters most. At 2.8% and accelerating, this isn't just an energy story anymore — price pressures are broadening into shelter, food, and airfares. That's the kind of inflation the Fed can't "look through."
- Alan
April CPI came in hot — 3.8% YoY, highest since May 2023, above the 3.7% forecast. Core CPI hit 2.8%, also above expectations at 0.4% MoM. Energy accounted for over 40% of the total increase. Gasoline up 28.4% YoY. Inflation was 2.4% before the war started. It's now nearly doubled in two months.
The Fed's position just shifted. They were frozen — couldn't cut, wouldn't hike. Now they're frozen with hike risk. Traders raised hike odds to ~30% by year-end. Bank of America doesn't see a cut until second half of 2027. Real wages fell 0.5% in April — the first time in three years inflation is eating all wage gains.
The core print is what matters most. At 2.8% and accelerating, this isn't just an energy story anymore — price pressures are broadening into shelter, food, and airfares. That's the kind of inflation the Fed can't "look through."
- Alan
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USD/JPY Analysis: The Intervention Is Now Fading Off
USD/JPY grinding back toward 158 after intervention dropped it from 160 to 155 just days ago. The effect is already fading — and today's CPI print explains why.
April CPI at 3.8% with core at 2.8% just made the Fed's hold even stickier. Hike odds rising to ~30% by year-end. The rate differential — 3.50–3.75% Fed vs 0.75% BoJ — is the gravity pulling this pair higher. If the Fed moves toward hiking while the BoJ stays cautious, that gap widens and no amount of intervention changes the math.
Japan's problem is structural. Intervention buys time but doesn't close a 300bp rate gap. Every spike lower gets bought because the carry trade is too attractive. Tokyo needs the BoJ to hike or the Fed to cut — neither is happening soon.
The intervention floor is real but temporary. The rate differential is permanent until policy changes. USD/JPY grinds higher until one central bank blinks.
- Alan
USD/JPY grinding back toward 158 after intervention dropped it from 160 to 155 just days ago. The effect is already fading — and today's CPI print explains why.
April CPI at 3.8% with core at 2.8% just made the Fed's hold even stickier. Hike odds rising to ~30% by year-end. The rate differential — 3.50–3.75% Fed vs 0.75% BoJ — is the gravity pulling this pair higher. If the Fed moves toward hiking while the BoJ stays cautious, that gap widens and no amount of intervention changes the math.
Japan's problem is structural. Intervention buys time but doesn't close a 300bp rate gap. Every spike lower gets bought because the carry trade is too attractive. Tokyo needs the BoJ to hike or the Fed to cut — neither is happening soon.
The intervention floor is real but temporary. The rate differential is permanent until policy changes. USD/JPY grinds higher until one central bank blinks.
- Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
If you have a $10,000 account and take a 40% drawdown, how much do you need to gain to get back to breakeven?
If you have a $10,000 account and take a 40% drawdown, how much do you need to gain to get back to breakeven?
Anonymous Quiz
34%
40% — the same percentage you lost
42%
66.7% — losses require disproportionately larger gains to recover
9%
50% — exactly half more than the original loss percentage
15%
100% — any drawdown over 30% requires doubling your remaining capital
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NZD/USD Analysis: Rate Hike Bets Fade Amid Strong Dollar
NZD/USD at 0.5936, positioned above the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages — all providing dynamic support. The pair is rangebound between 0.5850 support and 0.6100 resistance, with price at the midpoint of this 250-pip range.
Gov. Breman's indication that core inflation remained within the RBNZ's target band during Q1 has tempered May rate hike expectations to roughly 35%. A July increase, however, remains fully priced as elevated energy costs from the Hormuz disruption continue feeding into broader prices.
Tuesday's US CPI at 3.8% and this morning's 6.0% PPI has compounded dollar strength, narrowing the window for NZD appreciation. The rate differential continues to favor the dollar as the Fed's policy stance shifts from frozen to hike-risk territory.
Near-term direction hinges on the May 28 NZ Budget and developments in Middle East negotiations. A sustained break below the 200-day SMA would tilt the technical picture to the downside.
— Alan
NZD/USD at 0.5936, positioned above the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages — all providing dynamic support. The pair is rangebound between 0.5850 support and 0.6100 resistance, with price at the midpoint of this 250-pip range.
Gov. Breman's indication that core inflation remained within the RBNZ's target band during Q1 has tempered May rate hike expectations to roughly 35%. A July increase, however, remains fully priced as elevated energy costs from the Hormuz disruption continue feeding into broader prices.
Tuesday's US CPI at 3.8% and this morning's 6.0% PPI has compounded dollar strength, narrowing the window for NZD appreciation. The rate differential continues to favor the dollar as the Fed's policy stance shifts from frozen to hike-risk territory.
Near-term direction hinges on the May 28 NZ Budget and developments in Middle East negotiations. A sustained break below the 200-day SMA would tilt the technical picture to the downside.
— Alan
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AUD/USD Analysis: RBA Hikes Meet a Resurgent US Dollar
AUD/USD is testing the 0.7200 level — a well-defined weekly resistance zone. A sustained hold above this threshold would constitute a break and retest, confirming a shift in the medium-term technical bias to the upside.
The fundamental case for AUD remains intact. The RBA hiked to 4.35% with markets now pricing an 80% probability of a further increase to 4.60% by August. Wage growth, while moderating slightly on an annual basis, remains consistent with persistent labor cost pressures that underpin the inflation trajectory.
The constraint on further AUD/USD upside is the US data. CPI at 3.8% yesterday and today's PPI at 1.4% MoM — the largest monthly increase since March 2022 — have materially strengthened the dollar.
The Aussie's strength is more visible on the crosses. AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, and AUD/NZD are reflecting the RBA's hawkish positioning more cleanly, where dollar strength is not offsetting the rate differential.
— Alan
AUD/USD is testing the 0.7200 level — a well-defined weekly resistance zone. A sustained hold above this threshold would constitute a break and retest, confirming a shift in the medium-term technical bias to the upside.
The fundamental case for AUD remains intact. The RBA hiked to 4.35% with markets now pricing an 80% probability of a further increase to 4.60% by August. Wage growth, while moderating slightly on an annual basis, remains consistent with persistent labor cost pressures that underpin the inflation trajectory.
The constraint on further AUD/USD upside is the US data. CPI at 3.8% yesterday and today's PPI at 1.4% MoM — the largest monthly increase since March 2022 — have materially strengthened the dollar.
The Aussie's strength is more visible on the crosses. AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, and AUD/NZD are reflecting the RBA's hawkish positioning more cleanly, where dollar strength is not offsetting the rate differential.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The Phillips Curve suggests an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation. Why has this relationship weakened in recent decades?
The Phillips Curve suggests an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation. Why has this relationship weakened in recent decades?
Anonymous Quiz
10%
The relationship still holds perfectly — no breakdown has occurred
62%
Globalization, anchored expectations, and structural labor market shifts have flattened the curve
16%
Unemployment and inflation have moved in the same direction in every cycle since 1980
12%
The Phillips Curve was purely theoretical — it was never supported by any empirical data
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GBP/USD Analysis: Leadership Turmoil Caps Pound Growth
GBP/USD is trading below the 1.3550–1.3600 resistance zone that has defined the upper boundary of recent price action.
The political dimension has become a material factor. Health Secretary Streeting's resignation and anticipated leadership challenge against Starmer, combined with Labour's losses in last week's local elections, has introduced a layer of domestic uncertainty weighing on sterling.
The economic data presents a counterweight. Q1 GDP expanded 0.6% with annual growth reaching 1.1% — above expectations. BoE's Breeden indicated rate hikes could wait until later this year, characterizing the Middle East conflict as less inflationary than 2022.
Sterling is caught between resilient growth and political instability. The 1.3550–1.3600 resistance zone remains the technical inflection point — reclaiming it likely requires resolution of the political overhang.
read the full article here.
— Alan
GBP/USD is trading below the 1.3550–1.3600 resistance zone that has defined the upper boundary of recent price action.
The political dimension has become a material factor. Health Secretary Streeting's resignation and anticipated leadership challenge against Starmer, combined with Labour's losses in last week's local elections, has introduced a layer of domestic uncertainty weighing on sterling.
The economic data presents a counterweight. Q1 GDP expanded 0.6% with annual growth reaching 1.1% — above expectations. BoE's Breeden indicated rate hikes could wait until later this year, characterizing the Middle East conflict as less inflationary than 2022.
Sterling is caught between resilient growth and political instability. The 1.3550–1.3600 resistance zone remains the technical inflection point — reclaiming it likely requires resolution of the political overhang.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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U.S. Dollar Analysis: The Fed Is Now Frozen With "Hike Risk"
DXY at 98.60, fourth consecutive session of gains — the longest streak since late March. Price has reclaimed the 200-day SMA, with 98.00 confirming as support. The next target for bulls is 99.50, the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range.
This week's data has reinforced the Fed's hold. CPI at 3.8%, PPI at 6.0% annually, and import prices at 1.9% — nearly double consensus — have eliminated rate cut expectations for 2026. Hike probability is building as inflation broadens beyond energy into services and trade.
Warsh's Senate confirmation as Fed chair adds a forward-looking variable. The transition is unlikely to shift near-term policy, but markets will begin pricing his communication style and priorities in the coming weeks.
The critical variable remains the Middle East. If a resolution materializes — lower oil, declining yields, easing inflation — the rate repricing supporting the dollar reverses.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY at 98.60, fourth consecutive session of gains — the longest streak since late March. Price has reclaimed the 200-day SMA, with 98.00 confirming as support. The next target for bulls is 99.50, the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range.
This week's data has reinforced the Fed's hold. CPI at 3.8%, PPI at 6.0% annually, and import prices at 1.9% — nearly double consensus — have eliminated rate cut expectations for 2026. Hike probability is building as inflation broadens beyond energy into services and trade.
Warsh's Senate confirmation as Fed chair adds a forward-looking variable. The transition is unlikely to shift near-term policy, but markets will begin pricing his communication style and priorities in the coming weeks.
The critical variable remains the Middle East. If a resolution materializes — lower oil, declining yields, easing inflation — the rate repricing supporting the dollar reverses.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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