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AUD/USD Analysis: Now Testing Support Before Tonight's CPI
AUD/USD is down 1.10% today, pressing into the major support zone at 0.6850 where the 200-day SMA converges from below. This level held during the April lows and represents the structural floor.
Tonight's Australian CPI will confirm whether the drop continues or if buyers can justify stepping in to stop Aussie's bleeding. Headline is expected to rise to 4.4% from 4.2%, with core ticking up to 3.5% from 3.4% — both well above the RBA's target. Deputy Governor Hauser speaks on the inflation outlook after the release.
The RBA is expected to hold at 4.35% in August, with markets pricing a split chance of a hike to 4.60% by year-end. Meanwhile the Fed continues to lean hawkish, and the rate spread that once supported the Aussie has compressed materially.
A hot CPI tonight could revive August hike expectations and offer a bounce. A soft print would confirm the bearish structure and likely break the technical level.
read the full article here.
— Alan
AUD/USD is down 1.10% today, pressing into the major support zone at 0.6850 where the 200-day SMA converges from below. This level held during the April lows and represents the structural floor.
Tonight's Australian CPI will confirm whether the drop continues or if buyers can justify stepping in to stop Aussie's bleeding. Headline is expected to rise to 4.4% from 4.2%, with core ticking up to 3.5% from 3.4% — both well above the RBA's target. Deputy Governor Hauser speaks on the inflation outlook after the release.
The RBA is expected to hold at 4.35% in August, with markets pricing a split chance of a hike to 4.60% by year-end. Meanwhile the Fed continues to lean hawkish, and the rate spread that once supported the Aussie has compressed materially.
A hot CPI tonight could revive August hike expectations and offer a bounce. A soft print would confirm the bearish structure and likely break the technical level.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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EUR/USD Analysis: Now Breaking Through Critical Support
EUR/USD is breaking below the 1.1450 support zone that held through April and May.
Warsh's first FOMC last week reshaped the entire rate path. Fed July hike odds jumped from 8.5% to 34.2% in a single week. September hike odds surged from 29.1% to 69.5%. The dollar is at its highest level in over a year as markets reprice the trajectory.
ECB Chief Economist Lane signaled a "measured policy response" even with inflation expected to stay above target. Societe Generale's Juckes notes the rate differential could push EUR/USD through 1.14 — the US now has both a stronger economy and a hawkish rate market relative to Europe.
The structural divergence we've tracked since April has accelerated. Without a meaningful ECB shift or Fed dovishness, EUR/USD remains positioned lower. Support at 1.1300 is the next test.
read the full article here.
— Alan
EUR/USD is breaking below the 1.1450 support zone that held through April and May.
Warsh's first FOMC last week reshaped the entire rate path. Fed July hike odds jumped from 8.5% to 34.2% in a single week. September hike odds surged from 29.1% to 69.5%. The dollar is at its highest level in over a year as markets reprice the trajectory.
ECB Chief Economist Lane signaled a "measured policy response" even with inflation expected to stay above target. Societe Generale's Juckes notes the rate differential could push EUR/USD through 1.14 — the US now has both a stronger economy and a hawkish rate market relative to Europe.
The structural divergence we've tracked since April has accelerated. Without a meaningful ECB shift or Fed dovishness, EUR/USD remains positioned lower. Support at 1.1300 is the next test.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Floating $21,200 on my gold short position 👀
Gold trade update & gameplan from here:
(See image attached!)
Scenario 1: IF price bottoms, forming a higher low & breaking through resistance, I will take profits.
Scenario 2: If price respects resistance and continues lower, I will look for further lower highs to trail stops further into profits
Scenario 3: If price drops hard and breaks through support, I will trail stops more aggressively into profit.
All new trades and updates will be shared in our VIP signals service.
- Nick
Gold trade update & gameplan from here:
(See image attached!)
Scenario 1: IF price bottoms, forming a higher low & breaking through resistance, I will take profits.
Scenario 2: If price respects resistance and continues lower, I will look for further lower highs to trail stops further into profits
Scenario 3: If price drops hard and breaks through support, I will trail stops more aggressively into profit.
All new trades and updates will be shared in our VIP signals service.
- Nick
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When market makers who sold call options are forced to buy the underlying asset to hedge, what dynamic can this create?
When market makers who sold call options are forced to buy the underlying asset to hedge, what dynamic can this create?
Anonymous Quiz
55%
Hedging pushes price higher — triggering more calls ITM — forcing more buying: self-reinforcing loop
9%
Hedging pushes price higher — but the effect is contained to a single session every time
12%
Hedging pushes price higher — though gamma squeezes only occur in penny stocks
24%
Hedging pushes price higher — but market makers always pre-hedge, preventing any squeeze
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Gold Analysis: Price Is Now In Freefall
Gold slips below $4,000 — the lowest level since November 2025. The 200-day SMA at $4,469 is now overhead resistance. Until that level is reclaimed, the structural bias is firmly lower.
The decline is now $1,600 from the January record peak of $5,594 — a 28% drawdown. Gold is down 5% year-to-date and 20% from its high, despite the most active geopolitical environment in decades. The safe-haven thesis has failed because the dominant macro driver has been the yield environment.
Fed September hike odds have surged to 68% from 29% a week ago. The dollar is at 13-month highs. The opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset is at multi-year extremes. ING cut its Q3 forecast to $4,300 and Q4 to $4,600.
Next support sits at $3,400. Until then it's free-fall territory. The $3,900 area may offer tactical relief given central bank purchases. PCE Thursday is the next catalyst.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold slips below $4,000 — the lowest level since November 2025. The 200-day SMA at $4,469 is now overhead resistance. Until that level is reclaimed, the structural bias is firmly lower.
The decline is now $1,600 from the January record peak of $5,594 — a 28% drawdown. Gold is down 5% year-to-date and 20% from its high, despite the most active geopolitical environment in decades. The safe-haven thesis has failed because the dominant macro driver has been the yield environment.
Fed September hike odds have surged to 68% from 29% a week ago. The dollar is at 13-month highs. The opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset is at multi-year extremes. ING cut its Q3 forecast to $4,300 and Q4 to $4,600.
Next support sits at $3,400. Until then it's free-fall territory. The $3,900 area may offer tactical relief given central bank purchases. PCE Thursday is the next catalyst.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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US 10Y Now Breaks War Trendline as Oil Plummets
The US 10Y is breaking down below a support level that defines its upward trend.
The trendline break is the most significant technical event for yields since the war began. Above the line, the bond market was pricing restrictive policy. Below it, the market is signaling that the energy-driven inflation impulse is fading and the Fed's tightening path may be peaking.
Oil drove this move. Brent retreated to pre-war levels on improving tanker transit through Hormuz. Trump confirmed Iran will not impose tolls on vessels. The Iran framework that markets doubted is now materially de-risking energy supply.
The 5-year breakeven has dropped to 2.20% from 2.74% in May — a massive disinflation signal. Yet September hike odds remain at 68%. The gap between bond market disinflation and Fed hike pricing is widening. PCE Thursday is the next test.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The US 10Y is breaking down below a support level that defines its upward trend.
The trendline break is the most significant technical event for yields since the war began. Above the line, the bond market was pricing restrictive policy. Below it, the market is signaling that the energy-driven inflation impulse is fading and the Fed's tightening path may be peaking.
Oil drove this move. Brent retreated to pre-war levels on improving tanker transit through Hormuz. Trump confirmed Iran will not impose tolls on vessels. The Iran framework that markets doubted is now materially de-risking energy supply.
The 5-year breakeven has dropped to 2.20% from 2.74% in May — a massive disinflation signal. Yet September hike odds remain at 68%. The gap between bond market disinflation and Fed hike pricing is widening. PCE Thursday is the next test.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The petrodollar system — oil priced and settled in USD — has underpinned dollar dominance for decades. What happens to USD demand if major producers begin accepting other currencies?
The petrodollar system — oil priced and settled in USD — has underpinned dollar dominance for decades. What happens to USD demand if major producers begin accepting other currencies?
Anonymous Quiz
65%
Structural dollar demand erodes — fewer transactions require USD, reducing the built-in bid
16%
Structural dollar demand erodes — but oil pricing has no link to reserve currency status
9%
Structural dollar demand erodes — though only commodity FX pairs are affected
10%
Structural dollar demand erodes — but the US can unilaterally prevent any repricing
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Oil Now Trades at Pre-War Lows as Supply Shock Ends
WTI is back to pre-war levels for the first time since the conflict began in late February.
Tankers are crossing Hormuz at the fastest wartime pace. Saudi shipments resume from Ras Tanura for the first time since March. The US waiver allows purchases of already-loaded Iranian oil. Energy Secretary Wright sees Iran exporting up to 2 million barrels per day.
The narrative has flipped from supply shock to supply surplus. Iraq is threatening to leave OPEC unless its quota is raised — a clear signal that producers are positioning for a 2026 oversupply environment. Cushing inventories sit below operational minimums at 19M barrels, providing tactical support but not a structural floor.
The 172M barrel reserve release is still proceeding. The macro consequences cascade: lower oil means lower yields, weaker dollar safe-haven bid, and a meaningful disinflation impulse.
read the full article here.
— Alan
WTI is back to pre-war levels for the first time since the conflict began in late February.
Tankers are crossing Hormuz at the fastest wartime pace. Saudi shipments resume from Ras Tanura for the first time since March. The US waiver allows purchases of already-loaded Iranian oil. Energy Secretary Wright sees Iran exporting up to 2 million barrels per day.
The narrative has flipped from supply shock to supply surplus. Iraq is threatening to leave OPEC unless its quota is raised — a clear signal that producers are positioning for a 2026 oversupply environment. Cushing inventories sit below operational minimums at 19M barrels, providing tactical support but not a structural floor.
The 172M barrel reserve release is still proceeding. The macro consequences cascade: lower oil means lower yields, weaker dollar safe-haven bid, and a meaningful disinflation impulse.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Silver Now To Overcome Critical Wedge Pattern
This morning's macro is providing modest support. PCE printed in line at 4.1% — hot but not hotter than expected. The dollar erased gains to turn lower. Treasury yields edged down. December Fed hike odds dropped slightly to 80% from 85% pre-release. Oil at pre-war levels is removing the inflation impulse that pressured precious metals throughout the war.
The decline from $121 to $58 represents a 52% drawdown — more than double gold's 28% loss. The amplitude reflects silver's industrial demand profile compounding the yield-driven selling. Slowing global growth has eroded the industrial bid that traditionally cushions silver during financial-demand weakness.
Silver is sitting near the lower boundary of a multi-month descending wedge. The white lower trendline is the immediate test. A defense here with softer yields and a weaker dollar would offer a recovery setup. A break below confirms the bearish continuation.
read the full article here.
— Alan
This morning's macro is providing modest support. PCE printed in line at 4.1% — hot but not hotter than expected. The dollar erased gains to turn lower. Treasury yields edged down. December Fed hike odds dropped slightly to 80% from 85% pre-release. Oil at pre-war levels is removing the inflation impulse that pressured precious metals throughout the war.
The decline from $121 to $58 represents a 52% drawdown — more than double gold's 28% loss. The amplitude reflects silver's industrial demand profile compounding the yield-driven selling. Slowing global growth has eroded the industrial bid that traditionally cushions silver during financial-demand weakness.
Silver is sitting near the lower boundary of a multi-month descending wedge. The white lower trendline is the immediate test. A defense here with softer yields and a weaker dollar would offer a recovery setup. A break below confirms the bearish continuation.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔥6❤2👀2
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are considered “risk-on” currencies because:
The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are considered “risk-on” currencies because:
Anonymous Quiz
56%
They’re commodity linked — they rise when risk appetite increases
16%
They’re commodity linked — they rise when investors seek safety
12%
They’re commodity linked — mostly through Asian trading hours
16%
They’re commodity linked — while also behaving as safe-havens
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S&P 500 Now Coils as War Fade Meets Inflation Lag
The S&P 500 is trading well above the 7,250 support zone.
The data this week told a mixed story. Consumer sentiment improved 10.5% off the worst reading in the survey's history but remains 12.5% below pre-war levels. PCE came in line at 4.1%. Oil at pre-war levels. The goods trade deficit widened 27.5% to $105.8B — significantly worse than expected — and exports fell 5.4%.
The constructive read: the war's direct shock is fading, sentiment is recovering, and inventory normalization could add roughly 1pp to Q2 GDP. The cautious read: inflation expectations remain sticky at 4.6% one-year ahead, December hike odds are still 80%, and the trade drag is meaningful.
Equities are holding because the directional catalyst (war ending) outweighs the residual drag (inflation lag). A test of the 7,260 zone with macro confirmation would be a constructive re-entry. A break below opens the path to 7,000.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The S&P 500 is trading well above the 7,250 support zone.
The data this week told a mixed story. Consumer sentiment improved 10.5% off the worst reading in the survey's history but remains 12.5% below pre-war levels. PCE came in line at 4.1%. Oil at pre-war levels. The goods trade deficit widened 27.5% to $105.8B — significantly worse than expected — and exports fell 5.4%.
The constructive read: the war's direct shock is fading, sentiment is recovering, and inventory normalization could add roughly 1pp to Q2 GDP. The cautious read: inflation expectations remain sticky at 4.6% one-year ahead, December hike odds are still 80%, and the trade drag is meaningful.
Equities are holding because the directional catalyst (war ending) outweighs the residual drag (inflation lag). A test of the 7,260 zone with macro confirmation would be a constructive re-entry. A break below opens the path to 7,000.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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EUR/USD Analysis: Now Testing Critical Fib Level
EUR/USD is pulling back into prior support could turn resistance. This is the cleanest setup for a defined-risk short re-entry — the Fib levels mark the structure. Short-term trend invalidates above 1.1550.
The fundamentals still lean lower. DXY is still on pace for its strongest monthly gain since March, and Warsh's hawkish FOMC framework remains intact. Markets are still pricing one Fed hike this year. The rate gap that pressured the euro continues to favor the dollar.
That said, the trade is mature. The dollar long story is increasingly crowded. Trading near the bottom end of EUR/USD's range rather than the top means re-entries deserve smaller size than the original setup. The risk-reward arithmetic has changed. Same direction but with smaller conviction.
A failure to pass above the prior support-turned-resistance zone confirms the break and retest. A clean reclaim above 1.1550 invalidates the bearish structure.
read the full article here.
— Alan
EUR/USD is pulling back into prior support could turn resistance. This is the cleanest setup for a defined-risk short re-entry — the Fib levels mark the structure. Short-term trend invalidates above 1.1550.
The fundamentals still lean lower. DXY is still on pace for its strongest monthly gain since March, and Warsh's hawkish FOMC framework remains intact. Markets are still pricing one Fed hike this year. The rate gap that pressured the euro continues to favor the dollar.
That said, the trade is mature. The dollar long story is increasingly crowded. Trading near the bottom end of EUR/USD's range rather than the top means re-entries deserve smaller size than the original setup. The risk-reward arithmetic has changed. Same direction but with smaller conviction.
A failure to pass above the prior support-turned-resistance zone confirms the break and retest. A clean reclaim above 1.1550 invalidates the bearish structure.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Have a nice weekend.
- Nick
https://www.a1trading.com/market-news/
Bro 🤝
Have a nice weekend.
- Nick
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