DXY Now Soften as Soft Payrolls Cut Hike Bets
DXY at 100.75, pulling back 0.7% after today's soft NFP scaled back Fed hike bets. Price rejected the 102.00 resistance and is retracing into the 100.50 zone — former resistance the index broke above in June, now the first test of support.
The setup is a standstill with two paths. Buyers step in at 100.50 and the break-and-retest holds, resuming higher. Or the level fails, and a crowded dollar long unwinds toward the 99.00 handle where the 200-day SMA converges.
The macro still tilts toward the first option, until it doesn't.. Three straight NFP beats built the strong-labor narrative; a cooler print questions it. Oil below pre-war levels eases the inflation side of the Fed's mandate. If labor cracks while inflation cools, the Fed can prioritize employment — which pressures the dollar.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY at 100.75, pulling back 0.7% after today's soft NFP scaled back Fed hike bets. Price rejected the 102.00 resistance and is retracing into the 100.50 zone — former resistance the index broke above in June, now the first test of support.
The setup is a standstill with two paths. Buyers step in at 100.50 and the break-and-retest holds, resuming higher. Or the level fails, and a crowded dollar long unwinds toward the 99.00 handle where the 200-day SMA converges.
The macro still tilts toward the first option, until it doesn't.. Three straight NFP beats built the strong-labor narrative; a cooler print questions it. Oil below pre-war levels eases the inflation side of the Fed's mandate. If labor cracks while inflation cools, the Fed can prioritize employment — which pressures the dollar.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Is the DXY unwinding or is this another buy the dip?
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A series of candles with small upper wicks and long bodies closing near the high suggests:
A series of candles with small upper wicks and long bodies closing near the high suggests:
Anonymous Quiz
8%
Buyers are in control — but wick size has no connection to who's dominating the session
11%
Buyers are in control — though this pattern always reverses within three candles
72%
Buyers are in control — price is closing near its highs with minimal rejection from sellers
9%
Buyers are in control — but only on bullish candles, bearish candles show no wick information
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USD/JPY Now Near 40-Year High as Carry Trade Drives Yen
USD/JPY is back near a four-decade high after recovering roughly 170 pips to erase Friday's drop to 160.50. Price sits above the 160.00–160.50 intervention zone that capped rallies earlier this year.
The driver is the widening policy gap. The Fed stays relatively hawkish while the BoJ moves cautiously, and even after soft US jobs data, high dollar yields keep the carry trade attractive. Low G-7 FX volatility supports that flow. Markets price 30bps of Fed hikes this year.
Intervention risk remains the overhang. Japan holds roughly $1.3T in reserves; the last operation burned $75B and knocked 500 pips off the pair, all of which has since been reclaimed. A Japanese official floated raising rates more aggressively — a structural fix for yen weakness rather than a temporary one.
Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the catalyst. A hawkish read lifts the dollar toward 163. Support sits at 160.00, then 157.50.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USD/JPY is back near a four-decade high after recovering roughly 170 pips to erase Friday's drop to 160.50. Price sits above the 160.00–160.50 intervention zone that capped rallies earlier this year.
The driver is the widening policy gap. The Fed stays relatively hawkish while the BoJ moves cautiously, and even after soft US jobs data, high dollar yields keep the carry trade attractive. Low G-7 FX volatility supports that flow. Markets price 30bps of Fed hikes this year.
Intervention risk remains the overhang. Japan holds roughly $1.3T in reserves; the last operation burned $75B and knocked 500 pips off the pair, all of which has since been reclaimed. A Japanese official floated raising rates more aggressively — a structural fix for yen weakness rather than a temporary one.
Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the catalyst. A hawkish read lifts the dollar toward 163. Support sits at 160.00, then 157.50.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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DXY Is Now Flirting With An Important Level
DXY is edging up to start the week but holding near a three-week low after its largest weekly decline since April.
The soft June payrolls report drove last week's drop, scaling back Fed hike bets. September odds sit at 56%, down from 64% pre-NFP. Oil at pre-conflict levels continues to ease the inflation side.
The counterweight is growth. Societe Generale notes the US is the only G-10 economy where 2026 growth forecasts have risen since January — a backdrop that keeps inflation above target and limits the case for cuts. ISM Services came in at 54 this morning, in line.
The setup is a standstill at 100.50. A hold with buyers stepping in confirms the break-and-retest and points higher. A break opens the 99.00 handle at the 200-day SMA. FOMC minutes this week are the next catalyst.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY is edging up to start the week but holding near a three-week low after its largest weekly decline since April.
The soft June payrolls report drove last week's drop, scaling back Fed hike bets. September odds sit at 56%, down from 64% pre-NFP. Oil at pre-conflict levels continues to ease the inflation side.
The counterweight is growth. Societe Generale notes the US is the only G-10 economy where 2026 growth forecasts have risen since January — a backdrop that keeps inflation above target and limits the case for cuts. ISM Services came in at 54 this morning, in line.
The setup is a standstill at 100.50. A hold with buyers stepping in confirms the break-and-retest and points higher. A break opens the 99.00 handle at the 200-day SMA. FOMC minutes this week are the next catalyst.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why is the 200 EMA considered one of the most widely watched moving averages?
Why is the 200 EMA considered one of the most widely watched moving averages?
Anonymous Quiz
7%
Institutional and retail traders both use it — but it only works on forex pairs
10%
Institutional and retail traders both use it — though shorter EMAs are always more reliable
12%
Institutional and retail traders both use it — but price never reacts at the 200 in trending markets
71%
Institutional and retail traders both use it — widespread adoption makes it a self-fulfilling
❤12🫡5👍2
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US 10Y Now Climbs as Decisive Fed Minutes Near
The US 10Y is at a two-week high, as a renewed rise in oil revived inflation concerns. Oil gained more than 2% after an LNG carrier was struck exiting the Strait of Hormuz — a reminder the Gulf security risk is not fully priced out.
The move partly reverses last week's decline. Soft June payrolls and downward revisions had scaled back hike bets; the oil-driven inflation impulse now nudges them back up. September hike odds sit at 58%, up from 56%.
Last week's labor weakness argues for lower yields; this week's oil rebound argues for higher. Tomorrow's FOMC Minutes will help clarify the big question. Are rates lower or higher from here?
If yields rise after the minutes, it signals restrictive policy ahead — dollar-supportive, gold-negative. If they fall, the labor-driven easing narrative resumes — dollar-negative, gold-positive.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The US 10Y is at a two-week high, as a renewed rise in oil revived inflation concerns. Oil gained more than 2% after an LNG carrier was struck exiting the Strait of Hormuz — a reminder the Gulf security risk is not fully priced out.
The move partly reverses last week's decline. Soft June payrolls and downward revisions had scaled back hike bets; the oil-driven inflation impulse now nudges them back up. September hike odds sit at 58%, up from 56%.
Last week's labor weakness argues for lower yields; this week's oil rebound argues for higher. Tomorrow's FOMC Minutes will help clarify the big question. Are rates lower or higher from here?
If yields rise after the minutes, it signals restrictive policy ahead — dollar-supportive, gold-negative. If they fall, the labor-driven easing narrative resumes — dollar-negative, gold-positive.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Gold Now Consolidates as Crucial FOMC Minutes Loom
Gold is nearly flat today, consolidating rather than reversing after last week's bounce. Price holds near the $4,000–$4,100 area as traders wait on tomorrow's FOMC minutes before committing.
The driver stays real yields. September hike odds are back to 58%, and renewed Gulf tension is nudging oil higher — which lifts inflation concerns and reinforces the higher-for-longer stance that pressures non-yielding gold. Trump renewed threats against Iran; Tehran says peace talks stall unless those threats are dropped.
The offsetting bid is official demand. China's central bank posted its largest monthly gold-reserve increase in over two and a half years in June — steady sovereign accumulation that cushions the downside even as rates weigh.
Tomorrow's minutes are the catalyst. Focus falls on the Fed's read of inflation and labor, and any internal divergence. Support sits at $4,000, resistance at $4,400.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold is nearly flat today, consolidating rather than reversing after last week's bounce. Price holds near the $4,000–$4,100 area as traders wait on tomorrow's FOMC minutes before committing.
The driver stays real yields. September hike odds are back to 58%, and renewed Gulf tension is nudging oil higher — which lifts inflation concerns and reinforces the higher-for-longer stance that pressures non-yielding gold. Trump renewed threats against Iran; Tehran says peace talks stall unless those threats are dropped.
The offsetting bid is official demand. China's central bank posted its largest monthly gold-reserve increase in over two and a half years in June — steady sovereign accumulation that cushions the downside even as rates weigh.
Tomorrow's minutes are the catalyst. Focus falls on the Fed's read of inflation and labor, and any internal divergence. Support sits at $4,000, resistance at $4,400.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Take advantage of our Summer Sale to save up to $659 on the EdgeFinder! Use the options below to save on your copy:
1️⃣ Payment Plan (3 Months):
was:
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Both plans provide access to the complete EdgeFinder toolset:
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When a macro surprise index trends positive for weeks then suddenly flattens, what does this shift often precede?
When a macro surprise index trends positive for weeks then suddenly flattens, what does this shift often precede?
Anonymous Quiz
22%
Expectations have caught up to reality — but flattening surprise momentum has no forward signal
6%
Expectations have caught up to reality — but only FX responds to surprise momentum, not equities
72%
Expectations have caught up to reality — the tailwind fades and asset repricing stalls or reverses
❤8👍2
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NZD/USD Now Jumps as RBNZ Hikes for First Time Since 2023
NZD/USD at 0.5706 on the weekly, up 0.48% today after the RBNZ raised its cash rate 25bps to 2.50%, its first hike since mid-2023, and flagged more likely. The 200-week SMA caps price near 0.5830.
The rate story is the driver. The RBNZ called further hikes "likely at upcoming meetings" but stressed timing is uncertain. Two of six members saw upside inflation risk; the rest, including Governor Breman, saw balance. Markets price a 60% chance of a September move and ~38bps by year-end.
Capital Economics reads a hike roughly every other meeting until the OCR peaks near 3.25%. NZ 2-year swaps rose to 3.37%, 10-year yields to 4.54% — still just under Treasuries after outperforming for three months.
The bounce faces real overhead supply. Until price reclaims 0.5800–0.5850, the weekly structure stays bearish. Support sits below near 0.5650, then the 0.5550 zone.
read the full article here.
— Alan
NZD/USD at 0.5706 on the weekly, up 0.48% today after the RBNZ raised its cash rate 25bps to 2.50%, its first hike since mid-2023, and flagged more likely. The 200-week SMA caps price near 0.5830.
The rate story is the driver. The RBNZ called further hikes "likely at upcoming meetings" but stressed timing is uncertain. Two of six members saw upside inflation risk; the rest, including Governor Breman, saw balance. Markets price a 60% chance of a September move and ~38bps by year-end.
Capital Economics reads a hike roughly every other meeting until the OCR peaks near 3.25%. NZ 2-year swaps rose to 3.37%, 10-year yields to 4.54% — still just under Treasuries after outperforming for three months.
The bounce faces real overhead supply. Until price reclaims 0.5800–0.5850, the weekly structure stays bearish. Support sits below near 0.5650, then the 0.5550 zone.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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DXY Now: Fed Minutes Clash With a Fresh Oil Surge
DXY trades near 100.98 on confluence support: the ~100.5 demand zone and the rising trendline off the April–May lows. 200 MA near 99 is dynamic support below price.
June FOMC minutes read hawkish: easing bias dropped, 9 of 18 dots project a hike this year, a few argued to hike now. But they were written against Iran de-escalation and falling oil. This week flipped that — Trump called the ceasefire "over," oil is bid, the update reads stale.
The price action after the minutes: DXY softened, oil pared from +6% to ~+2%, yields eased. DXY–rate correlation near 0.88 makes the dollar a derivative of Fed pricing, which hinges on oil. EdgeFinder cooled to Neutral from Very Bullish.
Oil is the pivot. Hold 100.5 with oil/yields re-firming and DXY targets 101.5–102.0. Oil cools and June's playbook resumes.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY trades near 100.98 on confluence support: the ~100.5 demand zone and the rising trendline off the April–May lows. 200 MA near 99 is dynamic support below price.
June FOMC minutes read hawkish: easing bias dropped, 9 of 18 dots project a hike this year, a few argued to hike now. But they were written against Iran de-escalation and falling oil. This week flipped that — Trump called the ceasefire "over," oil is bid, the update reads stale.
The price action after the minutes: DXY softened, oil pared from +6% to ~+2%, yields eased. DXY–rate correlation near 0.88 makes the dollar a derivative of Fed pricing, which hinges on oil. EdgeFinder cooled to Neutral from Very Bullish.
Oil is the pivot. Hold 100.5 with oil/yields re-firming and DXY targets 101.5–102.0. Oil cools and June's playbook resumes.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Oil surged 6% on the ceasefire collapse while gold fell 1.65%. Why would gold drop during a geopolitical escalation?
Oil surged 6% on the ceasefire collapse while gold fell 1.65%. Why would gold drop during a geopolitical escalation?
Anonymous Quiz
15%
Higher oil reignites rate hike expectations — but gold always rises during geopolitical conflict
14%
Higher oil reignites rate hike expectations — but the dollar weakened, which should support gold
7%
Higher oil ignites rate hike expectations — though gold only responds to physical supply disruptions
65%
Higher oil fuels rate hike expectations — rising yields increase the cost of holding gold
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USOIL Now Stalls at the 200-Day as Iran Risk Cools
USOIL is pressed on the rising 200-day SMA.
Crude jumped 4.4% yesterday (biggest since May) on renewed US–Iran hostilities, US strikes, retaliation on US bases, and Hormuz refocused. Today it slipped below 73. Disruption scale is unclear: flows largely continue on Iran-approved routes, the Omani corridor barely used.
VIX is also lower, rejecting yesterday's 200-day SMA touch. Duration beats the peak: a spike leaves disinflation intact; only a sustained Hormuz closure reprices the inflation and Fed path.
The 200-day near 72 is the line. Close above on a lasting disruption opens 84–88. Reject here as flows normalize and VIX falls with it, and the downtrend resumes toward 68.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USOIL is pressed on the rising 200-day SMA.
Crude jumped 4.4% yesterday (biggest since May) on renewed US–Iran hostilities, US strikes, retaliation on US bases, and Hormuz refocused. Today it slipped below 73. Disruption scale is unclear: flows largely continue on Iran-approved routes, the Omani corridor barely used.
VIX is also lower, rejecting yesterday's 200-day SMA touch. Duration beats the peak: a spike leaves disinflation intact; only a sustained Hormuz closure reprices the inflation and Fed path.
The 200-day near 72 is the line. Close above on a lasting disruption opens 84–88. Reject here as flows normalize and VIX falls with it, and the downtrend resumes toward 68.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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USD/CAD Analysis: Now Watching For Pullback Opportunities
USDCAD is easing slightly today. Just above the broken 1.408–1.413 shelf (former resistance, now support), the rising 200-day (~1.385) well below. Uptrend intact above the 200-day, but near the range top.
USD eased off the week's highs as US–Iran attacks resumed and the tape turned risk-on: oil, VIX and yields all lower. Wednesday's FOMC minutes kept a 2026 hike on the table, division only on timing. That Fed openness is the dollar's underpin.
Oil cuts both ways: a sustained rise lifts CAD via terms-of-trade but also the USD via the Fed channel — lately USD has led. MUFG's Hardman: sustained oil gains "could reinforce the dollar's recent upward momentum."
Bias is buy-the-dip while the uptrend holds. A shallow dip to 1.408–1.413 is risk-defined but thin up here; a deeper flush to 1.390 where the 200 Day lies is the cleaner setup.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USDCAD is easing slightly today. Just above the broken 1.408–1.413 shelf (former resistance, now support), the rising 200-day (~1.385) well below. Uptrend intact above the 200-day, but near the range top.
USD eased off the week's highs as US–Iran attacks resumed and the tape turned risk-on: oil, VIX and yields all lower. Wednesday's FOMC minutes kept a 2026 hike on the table, division only on timing. That Fed openness is the dollar's underpin.
Oil cuts both ways: a sustained rise lifts CAD via terms-of-trade but also the USD via the Fed channel — lately USD has led. MUFG's Hardman: sustained oil gains "could reinforce the dollar's recent upward momentum."
Bias is buy-the-dip while the uptrend holds. A shallow dip to 1.408–1.413 is risk-defined but thin up here; a deeper flush to 1.390 where the 200 Day lies is the cleaner setup.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When volume drops significantly during a pullback within an uptrend, what does this suggest?
When volume drops significantly during a pullback within an uptrend, what does this suggest?
Anonymous Quiz
7%
Sellers lack conviction — but the uptrend is over once any pullback occurs regardless of volume
6%
Sellers lack conviction — though volume during pullbacks has no relevance to trend health
72%
Sellers lack conviction — the pullback is driven by profit-taking, not aggressive selling
14%
Sellers lack conviction — but low volume during pullbacks always leads to a trend reversal
❤15😱2👍1
EUR/USD Now Bounces Off Its One-Year Low Ahead of CPI
EURUSD is recovering from June's ~1.135 one-year low into the 1.140–1.145 demand zone — a second straight weekly gain.
The bid is partly real euro strength, not just a soft dollar. Markets price north of 30bps of further ECB tightening this year, a September hike in view plus a dollar easing on soft US jobs and lower oil/VIX/yields.
Cross-currents cut against it: a sustained oil bid is a euro headwind via Europe's energy imports, and French political risk (Le Pen's 2027 bid) adds noise. The main pivot would be US CPI Tuesday. A cool print fuels the rally, a hot one caps it.
The 1.140–1.145 zone is a risk-defined long off the range low, but 1.165 caps upside — a bounce, not a reversal, until reclaimed. Lose 1.140 on a hot CPI and firmer dollar, and ~1.135 returns.
read the full article here.
— Alan
EURUSD is recovering from June's ~1.135 one-year low into the 1.140–1.145 demand zone — a second straight weekly gain.
The bid is partly real euro strength, not just a soft dollar. Markets price north of 30bps of further ECB tightening this year, a September hike in view plus a dollar easing on soft US jobs and lower oil/VIX/yields.
Cross-currents cut against it: a sustained oil bid is a euro headwind via Europe's energy imports, and French political risk (Le Pen's 2027 bid) adds noise. The main pivot would be US CPI Tuesday. A cool print fuels the rally, a hot one caps it.
The 1.140–1.145 zone is a risk-defined long off the range low, but 1.165 caps upside — a bounce, not a reversal, until reclaimed. Lose 1.140 on a hot CPI and firmer dollar, and ~1.135 returns.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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USD/JPY Now: Is Forced Buying Enough to Prop The Yen?
USDJPY is easing a bit after tagging 40-year highs. Uptrend intact: the 200-day (~157) is well below price as dynamic support.
Today's bounce is real yen strength, not dollar weakness — broad-based (EURJPY, GBPJPY lower) while DXY barely moved. FinMin Katayama wants pension giants like the $1.8T GPIF to make "substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets."
But durability is the question. It's exploratory and there's no solidified no targets or timeline. The rate differential still drives the yen. US CPI Tuesday swings the USD leg.
Forced buying is sand against the carry unless it becomes sized, sustained flow and (or) BoJ rates move. Near 40-yr lows, chasing 162–163 is poor asymmetry; dips to 160 are the trend side. Break 160 on real reallocation and soft CPI; 158/155 open. Watch JGB yields.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USDJPY is easing a bit after tagging 40-year highs. Uptrend intact: the 200-day (~157) is well below price as dynamic support.
Today's bounce is real yen strength, not dollar weakness — broad-based (EURJPY, GBPJPY lower) while DXY barely moved. FinMin Katayama wants pension giants like the $1.8T GPIF to make "substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets."
But durability is the question. It's exploratory and there's no solidified no targets or timeline. The rate differential still drives the yen. US CPI Tuesday swings the USD leg.
Forced buying is sand against the carry unless it becomes sized, sustained flow and (or) BoJ rates move. Near 40-yr lows, chasing 162–163 is poor asymmetry; dips to 160 are the trend side. Break 160 on real reallocation and soft CPI; 158/155 open. Watch JGB yields.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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