Gold Analysis: Now Is The Time To Pay Attention
Gold may be slipping under the 4,365 to 4,382 support shelf after what looks like to be topping out at 4,449.
Worth noting where it turned. The 200-day sits near 4,495, so price rejected about 1% beneath it. That average has capped this market all year and it did its job again. This reads as resistance holding rather than a trend breaking.
The macro is getting progressively stronger for Gold. Payrolls contracted 23,000 with heavy revisions, CPI slowed to 3.4%, PPI came in unchanged with the annual rate down to 4.7% from 5.5%, and front-end yields have broken their war-era uptrend. Rate projections have gone from two and a half hikes to roughly one.
The 0.382, the 0.5, and the 0.618 fib levels sit below. I'm watching them closely!
Just like you can overpay for a house or a car, you can overpay in trading. I'd rather re-enter at a relative discount.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold may be slipping under the 4,365 to 4,382 support shelf after what looks like to be topping out at 4,449.
Worth noting where it turned. The 200-day sits near 4,495, so price rejected about 1% beneath it. That average has capped this market all year and it did its job again. This reads as resistance holding rather than a trend breaking.
The macro is getting progressively stronger for Gold. Payrolls contracted 23,000 with heavy revisions, CPI slowed to 3.4%, PPI came in unchanged with the annual rate down to 4.7% from 5.5%, and front-end yields have broken their war-era uptrend. Rate projections have gone from two and a half hikes to roughly one.
The 0.382, the 0.5, and the 0.618 fib levels sit below. I'm watching them closely!
Just like you can overpay for a house or a car, you can overpay in trading. I'd rather re-enter at a relative discount.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Real yields rose sharply this quarter. Why would this pressure high-growth, non-profitable tech stocks more than value stocks?
Real yields rose sharply this quarter. Why would this pressure high-growth, non-profitable tech stocks more than value stocks?
Anonymous Quiz
24%
Growth valuations lean on distant cash flows — but real yields only affect bonds
11%
Growth valuations lean on distant cash flows — though this only holds in recessions
21%
Growth valuations lean on distant cash flows — but growth/value react identically
43%
Growth valuations lean on distant cash flows — more sensitive to the discount rate
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NZDUSD Now Bounces as the Fed's Hawkish Case Weakens
NZDUSD is bouncing off of key support.
What makes this pair clean is the divergence. The RBNZ is one of the last hawkish central banks, while the Fed is drifting the other way. Markets price about 85% odds of an RBNZ hike to 2.75% in September, and the bank keeps flagging the need to make policy less stimulative. July manufacturing expanded again.
The Fed side is the opposite story. Retail sales fell 0.6% today against 0.1% expected, the fourth straight miss after cooling CPI, cooling PPI, and a contracting jobs report. Rate pricing has gone from two and a half hikes earlier this year to one at most. Front-end yields are lower again.
One central bank leaning toward a hike, the other toward a hold. Those polar opposites make what could be a clean setup. Kiwi is the strongest currency today on the currency relative strength chart.
read the full article here.
— Alan
NZDUSD is bouncing off of key support.
What makes this pair clean is the divergence. The RBNZ is one of the last hawkish central banks, while the Fed is drifting the other way. Markets price about 85% odds of an RBNZ hike to 2.75% in September, and the bank keeps flagging the need to make policy less stimulative. July manufacturing expanded again.
The Fed side is the opposite story. Retail sales fell 0.6% today against 0.1% expected, the fourth straight miss after cooling CPI, cooling PPI, and a contracting jobs report. Rate pricing has gone from two and a half hikes earlier this year to one at most. Front-end yields are lower again.
One central bank leaning toward a hike, the other toward a hold. Those polar opposites make what could be a clean setup. Kiwi is the strongest currency today on the currency relative strength chart.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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DXY Analysis: The Fed Is Running Out of Options
DXY is at 99.515, sitting on support with the 200-day SMA just beneath at roughly 99.20.
Two paths and both end lower. Either this support holds and price rallies into the 100.20 to 100.60 resistance band before sellers take it from there, or the shelf gives way, the 200-day goes with it, and the flush continues. With the Fed's rate hike case weakening, I think the destination for DXY is lower, it's just a matter of which path it takes.
Retail sales are the fourth consecutive miss. Sales fell 0.6% against 0.1% expected, the largest drop since May 2025. That follows payrolls contracting 23,000 with 103,000 of downward revisions, CPI slowing to 3.4%, and PPI coming in flat with the annual rate down to 4.7% from 5.5%. Front-end yields are lower again today.
The EdgeFinder currently reads Very Bearish on the dollar.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY is at 99.515, sitting on support with the 200-day SMA just beneath at roughly 99.20.
Two paths and both end lower. Either this support holds and price rallies into the 100.20 to 100.60 resistance band before sellers take it from there, or the shelf gives way, the 200-day goes with it, and the flush continues. With the Fed's rate hike case weakening, I think the destination for DXY is lower, it's just a matter of which path it takes.
Retail sales are the fourth consecutive miss. Sales fell 0.6% against 0.1% expected, the largest drop since May 2025. That follows payrolls contracting 23,000 with 103,000 of downward revisions, CPI slowing to 3.4%, and PPI coming in flat with the annual rate down to 4.7% from 5.5%. Front-end yields are lower again today.
The EdgeFinder currently reads Very Bearish on the dollar.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Try EdgeFinder free: https://bit.ly/4xrDjrQ
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
If the market begins pricing in an earlier and larger series of rate cuts, longer-duration bonds should generally outperform shorter-duration bonds, all else equal.
If the market begins pricing in an earlier and larger series of rate cuts, longer-duration bonds should generally outperform shorter-duration bonds, all else equal.
Anonymous Quiz
65%
True
35%
False
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Euro Now Hits a Two-Month High as ECB-Fed Gap Widens
EURUSD is near a two-month high. Price is creeping up towards the 200-day SMA that'll act as resistance unless proven otherwise.
The has been some real policy divergence lately fueling the bid. Markets have cut Fed hike bets to about one this year after four straight soft US prints. The ECB is the other way, with roughly 84% priced for a 25bp hike in September. One bank leaning to a hold, the other to a hike.
EURUSD sits under its 200-day while DXY sits on its 200-day. They're basically the same chart and they're at the same inflection point.
read the full article here.
— Alan
EURUSD is near a two-month high. Price is creeping up towards the 200-day SMA that'll act as resistance unless proven otherwise.
The has been some real policy divergence lately fueling the bid. Markets have cut Fed hike bets to about one this year after four straight soft US prints. The ECB is the other way, with roughly 84% priced for a 25bp hike in September. One bank leaning to a hold, the other to a hike.
EURUSD sits under its 200-day while DXY sits on its 200-day. They're basically the same chart and they're at the same inflection point.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Gold Now Sits Near Highs With Crowded Positioning
Gold is back near the 4,452 swing high. The 200-day sits above at roughly 4,490 to 4,500, still resistance. Price recovered almost the whole pullback from 4,331 without offering a deeper dip.
The macro for gold is still very strong. Four soft US prints in a row, cooler CPI, cooler PPI, a contracting jobs report, and weaker retail sales, have pushed Fed pricing toward a hold. Lower rates support a metal that pays nothing.
The problem is the entry.. Positioning looks crowded at these highs. A quick flush of that crowding could take Gold lower fast without breaking the macro backdrop. That potential flush could present an entry opportunity at solid price levels.
The retracements below are unfilled: The 0.382 at 4,286, the 0.5 at 4,235, and the 0.618 at 4,183.
Fed minutes Wednesday could also be a market moving catalyst.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold is back near the 4,452 swing high. The 200-day sits above at roughly 4,490 to 4,500, still resistance. Price recovered almost the whole pullback from 4,331 without offering a deeper dip.
The macro for gold is still very strong. Four soft US prints in a row, cooler CPI, cooler PPI, a contracting jobs report, and weaker retail sales, have pushed Fed pricing toward a hold. Lower rates support a metal that pays nothing.
The problem is the entry.. Positioning looks crowded at these highs. A quick flush of that crowding could take Gold lower fast without breaking the macro backdrop. That potential flush could present an entry opportunity at solid price levels.
The retracements below are unfilled: The 0.382 at 4,286, the 0.5 at 4,235, and the 0.618 at 4,183.
Fed minutes Wednesday could also be a market moving catalyst.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
As an economy moves from early-cycle expansion into late-cycle growth, capital rotating from cyclicals into defensives typically happens only after a recession has been officially confirmed by the data.
As an economy moves from early-cycle expansion into late-cycle growth, capital rotating from cyclicals into defensives typically happens only after a recession has been officially confirmed by the data.
Anonymous Quiz
50%
True
50%
False
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Eightcap is a fully regulated broker that keeps costs down with low trading fees. You will have access to a wide range of tradeable assets, including:
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DXY Now Tests the Line That Keeps the Trend Alive
DXY is mostly flat going into tomorrow's FOMC minutes, and sitting on a genuine inflection point.
Two things converge just below price. The 99.5 support shelf, and the 200-day SMA at roughly 99.22. The part that makes this significant is that the 200-day is also the 0.618 retracement of the whole war move, from the 97.628 low to the 101.801 high. Both land near 99.222.
That confluence is where dollar bulls defend if they are going to. Price is testing the deepest retracement that still keeps the larger uptrend alive. If bulls are able to hold it then a longer swing higher is on the table.
Lose the level and the 200-day together, and the last technical support is gone. Open room back toward the pre-war level near 97.6.
The macro leans bearish. A September hold is now near 70% after four soft prints.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY is mostly flat going into tomorrow's FOMC minutes, and sitting on a genuine inflection point.
Two things converge just below price. The 99.5 support shelf, and the 200-day SMA at roughly 99.22. The part that makes this significant is that the 200-day is also the 0.618 retracement of the whole war move, from the 97.628 low to the 101.801 high. Both land near 99.222.
That confluence is where dollar bulls defend if they are going to. Price is testing the deepest retracement that still keeps the larger uptrend alive. If bulls are able to hold it then a longer swing higher is on the table.
Lose the level and the 200-day together, and the last technical support is gone. Open room back toward the pre-war level near 97.6.
The macro leans bearish. A September hold is now near 70% after four soft prints.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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30 Year Now at 2008 Levels. Watch for this:
The US 30-year yield is at the the highest level since 2007. Levels seen right before the 2008 financial crisis.
In the short term, higher yields on both the front end and the long end can translate into some dollar bullishness. That is the normal relationship. High yields, strong dollar.
But here is the thing. A very elevated 30-year yield is a risk premium. That is the market pricing in that it needs more confidence to hold US debt. Barclays says the same, the move is less about inflation and more about the deficit, heavy AI-related issuance competing with Treasuries, and term premium.
Normally high yields equal a strong dollar. In this case, you could get higher 30-year yields translating into very strong gold. When there is pure uncertainty and fiat is not the way to go, gold becomes the meta.
And GLOBAL central banks are already there. They now hold more gold than US Treasuries, 24% against 21%.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The US 30-year yield is at the the highest level since 2007. Levels seen right before the 2008 financial crisis.
In the short term, higher yields on both the front end and the long end can translate into some dollar bullishness. That is the normal relationship. High yields, strong dollar.
But here is the thing. A very elevated 30-year yield is a risk premium. That is the market pricing in that it needs more confidence to hold US debt. Barclays says the same, the move is less about inflation and more about the deficit, heavy AI-related issuance competing with Treasuries, and term premium.
Normally high yields equal a strong dollar. In this case, you could get higher 30-year yields translating into very strong gold. When there is pure uncertainty and fiat is not the way to go, gold becomes the meta.
And GLOBAL central banks are already there. They now hold more gold than US Treasuries, 24% against 21%.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A rising term premium on long-term government bonds can reflect growing investor uncertainty about future inflation or fiscal sustainability, independent of near-term rate expectations.
A rising term premium on long-term government bonds can reflect growing investor uncertainty about future inflation or fiscal sustainability, independent of near-term rate expectations.
Anonymous Quiz
80%
True
20%
False
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DXY Now Breaks Critical Support as Treasury Steps In
DXY is at 98.885, and it broke the level. Yesterday the 200-day and the 0.618 retracement met at 99.22. Price is now below both. The pre-war scenario I laid out may be playing out sooner than I thought.
The catalyst this morning: Treasury is doubling its long-end buybacks, from a $2 billion cap to at least $4 billion per operation, on 10 to 30 year maturities. It starts September 9 and runs through November 4.
All week the 30-year carried a supply problem the Fed could not touch. Treasury just stepped in as the buyer instead. Buying bonds pushes prices up and yields down. The 10-year dropped from about 4.69% to 4.641%.
Lower yields, weaker dollar. The dollar is down 0.75%, USDCHF down 1.38%, USDJPY down 0.82%.
Below 99.22, the road opens toward the pre-war level near 97.6.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY is at 98.885, and it broke the level. Yesterday the 200-day and the 0.618 retracement met at 99.22. Price is now below both. The pre-war scenario I laid out may be playing out sooner than I thought.
The catalyst this morning: Treasury is doubling its long-end buybacks, from a $2 billion cap to at least $4 billion per operation, on 10 to 30 year maturities. It starts September 9 and runs through November 4.
All week the 30-year carried a supply problem the Fed could not touch. Treasury just stepped in as the buyer instead. Buying bonds pushes prices up and yields down. The 10-year dropped from about 4.69% to 4.641%.
Lower yields, weaker dollar. The dollar is down 0.75%, USDCHF down 1.38%, USDJPY down 0.82%.
Below 99.22, the road opens toward the pre-war level near 97.6.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Well That Was Totally Unexpected. What's Next For Gold?
Gold is at 4,484.82, up over 3%, and testing the 200-day for the first time this whole run. Every Gold markup this month called this average the first target. Price is here now.
This was totally unexpected and very bullish for gold. The Treasury buyback knocked down long-dated yields and the dollar, and lower yields plus a weaker dollar is exactly the fuel gold wants. The story just got a lot more supportive.
The question is the same as always. Where do you buy it? With this much momentum, the deeper retracements we talked about may not come.
So the new path is waiting for technical confirmation. Me personally, I am watching the 200-day for a break and retest. That is just as good as waiting for a pullback that holds. Nonetheless, I'm waiting for a technical confirmation.
FOMC Meeting Minutes drops soon, so expect some vol.
The 4,430 to 4,445 shelf is support now.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold is at 4,484.82, up over 3%, and testing the 200-day for the first time this whole run. Every Gold markup this month called this average the first target. Price is here now.
This was totally unexpected and very bullish for gold. The Treasury buyback knocked down long-dated yields and the dollar, and lower yields plus a weaker dollar is exactly the fuel gold wants. The story just got a lot more supportive.
The question is the same as always. Where do you buy it? With this much momentum, the deeper retracements we talked about may not come.
So the new path is waiting for technical confirmation. Me personally, I am watching the 200-day for a break and retest. That is just as good as waiting for a pullback that holds. Nonetheless, I'm waiting for a technical confirmation.
FOMC Meeting Minutes drops soon, so expect some vol.
The 4,430 to 4,445 shelf is support now.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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