🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
As an economy moves from early-cycle expansion into late-cycle growth, capital rotating from cyclicals into defensives typically happens only after a recession has been officially confirmed by the data.
As an economy moves from early-cycle expansion into late-cycle growth, capital rotating from cyclicals into defensives typically happens only after a recession has been officially confirmed by the data.
Anonymous Quiz
50%
True
50%
False
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❤9
DXY Now Tests the Line That Keeps the Trend Alive
DXY is mostly flat going into tomorrow's FOMC minutes, and sitting on a genuine inflection point.
Two things converge just below price. The 99.5 support shelf, and the 200-day SMA at roughly 99.22. The part that makes this significant is that the 200-day is also the 0.618 retracement of the whole war move, from the 97.628 low to the 101.801 high. Both land near 99.222.
That confluence is where dollar bulls defend if they are going to. Price is testing the deepest retracement that still keeps the larger uptrend alive. If bulls are able to hold it then a longer swing higher is on the table.
Lose the level and the 200-day together, and the last technical support is gone. Open room back toward the pre-war level near 97.6.
The macro leans bearish. A September hold is now near 70% after four soft prints.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY is mostly flat going into tomorrow's FOMC minutes, and sitting on a genuine inflection point.
Two things converge just below price. The 99.5 support shelf, and the 200-day SMA at roughly 99.22. The part that makes this significant is that the 200-day is also the 0.618 retracement of the whole war move, from the 97.628 low to the 101.801 high. Both land near 99.222.
That confluence is where dollar bulls defend if they are going to. Price is testing the deepest retracement that still keeps the larger uptrend alive. If bulls are able to hold it then a longer swing higher is on the table.
Lose the level and the 200-day together, and the last technical support is gone. Open room back toward the pre-war level near 97.6.
The macro leans bearish. A September hold is now near 70% after four soft prints.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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30 Year Now at 2008 Levels. Watch for this:
The US 30-year yield is at the the highest level since 2007. Levels seen right before the 2008 financial crisis.
In the short term, higher yields on both the front end and the long end can translate into some dollar bullishness. That is the normal relationship. High yields, strong dollar.
But here is the thing. A very elevated 30-year yield is a risk premium. That is the market pricing in that it needs more confidence to hold US debt. Barclays says the same, the move is less about inflation and more about the deficit, heavy AI-related issuance competing with Treasuries, and term premium.
Normally high yields equal a strong dollar. In this case, you could get higher 30-year yields translating into very strong gold. When there is pure uncertainty and fiat is not the way to go, gold becomes the meta.
And GLOBAL central banks are already there. They now hold more gold than US Treasuries, 24% against 21%.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The US 30-year yield is at the the highest level since 2007. Levels seen right before the 2008 financial crisis.
In the short term, higher yields on both the front end and the long end can translate into some dollar bullishness. That is the normal relationship. High yields, strong dollar.
But here is the thing. A very elevated 30-year yield is a risk premium. That is the market pricing in that it needs more confidence to hold US debt. Barclays says the same, the move is less about inflation and more about the deficit, heavy AI-related issuance competing with Treasuries, and term premium.
Normally high yields equal a strong dollar. In this case, you could get higher 30-year yields translating into very strong gold. When there is pure uncertainty and fiat is not the way to go, gold becomes the meta.
And GLOBAL central banks are already there. They now hold more gold than US Treasuries, 24% against 21%.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A rising term premium on long-term government bonds can reflect growing investor uncertainty about future inflation or fiscal sustainability, independent of near-term rate expectations.
A rising term premium on long-term government bonds can reflect growing investor uncertainty about future inflation or fiscal sustainability, independent of near-term rate expectations.
Anonymous Quiz
80%
True
20%
False
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DXY Now Breaks Critical Support as Treasury Steps In
DXY is at 98.885, and it broke the level. Yesterday the 200-day and the 0.618 retracement met at 99.22. Price is now below both. The pre-war scenario I laid out may be playing out sooner than I thought.
The catalyst this morning: Treasury is doubling its long-end buybacks, from a $2 billion cap to at least $4 billion per operation, on 10 to 30 year maturities. It starts September 9 and runs through November 4.
All week the 30-year carried a supply problem the Fed could not touch. Treasury just stepped in as the buyer instead. Buying bonds pushes prices up and yields down. The 10-year dropped from about 4.69% to 4.641%.
Lower yields, weaker dollar. The dollar is down 0.75%, USDCHF down 1.38%, USDJPY down 0.82%.
Below 99.22, the road opens toward the pre-war level near 97.6.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY is at 98.885, and it broke the level. Yesterday the 200-day and the 0.618 retracement met at 99.22. Price is now below both. The pre-war scenario I laid out may be playing out sooner than I thought.
The catalyst this morning: Treasury is doubling its long-end buybacks, from a $2 billion cap to at least $4 billion per operation, on 10 to 30 year maturities. It starts September 9 and runs through November 4.
All week the 30-year carried a supply problem the Fed could not touch. Treasury just stepped in as the buyer instead. Buying bonds pushes prices up and yields down. The 10-year dropped from about 4.69% to 4.641%.
Lower yields, weaker dollar. The dollar is down 0.75%, USDCHF down 1.38%, USDJPY down 0.82%.
Below 99.22, the road opens toward the pre-war level near 97.6.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Well That Was Totally Unexpected. What's Next For Gold?
Gold is at 4,484.82, up over 3%, and testing the 200-day for the first time this whole run. Every Gold markup this month called this average the first target. Price is here now.
This was totally unexpected and very bullish for gold. The Treasury buyback knocked down long-dated yields and the dollar, and lower yields plus a weaker dollar is exactly the fuel gold wants. The story just got a lot more supportive.
The question is the same as always. Where do you buy it? With this much momentum, the deeper retracements we talked about may not come.
So the new path is waiting for technical confirmation. Me personally, I am watching the 200-day for a break and retest. That is just as good as waiting for a pullback that holds. Nonetheless, I'm waiting for a technical confirmation.
FOMC Meeting Minutes drops soon, so expect some vol.
The 4,430 to 4,445 shelf is support now.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold is at 4,484.82, up over 3%, and testing the 200-day for the first time this whole run. Every Gold markup this month called this average the first target. Price is here now.
This was totally unexpected and very bullish for gold. The Treasury buyback knocked down long-dated yields and the dollar, and lower yields plus a weaker dollar is exactly the fuel gold wants. The story just got a lot more supportive.
The question is the same as always. Where do you buy it? With this much momentum, the deeper retracements we talked about may not come.
So the new path is waiting for technical confirmation. Me personally, I am watching the 200-day for a break and retest. That is just as good as waiting for a pullback that holds. Nonetheless, I'm waiting for a technical confirmation.
FOMC Meeting Minutes drops soon, so expect some vol.
The 4,430 to 4,445 shelf is support now.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Data shows retail-heavy positioning near a multi-year extreme in one direction. Why do some traders treat this as contrarian rather than confirming the trend?
Data shows retail-heavy positioning near a multi-year extreme in one direction. Why do some traders treat this as contrarian rather than confirming the trend?
Anonymous Quiz
20%
Limited fresh capital remains — but positioning only confirms trends, never signals reversals
10%
Limited fresh capital remains — though CFTC data works equally for both approaches
13%
Limited fresh capital remains — but retail positioning has no link to reversals
56%
Limited fresh capital remains to extend the move — increasing reversal risk
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❤16
US 10-Year Yield Now Erases the Entire Buyback Drop
The US 10-year is at 4.70%, back above where it sat before yesterday's buyback news.
Yesterday Treasury tried to tame the long end by boosting buybacks to at least $4 billion. The move was short-lived. The bond market says more is needed to change the direction for long-end yields.
Today the yield erased most of yesterday's drop. Even Bessent floating a bigger buyback than $4 billion only briefly slowed the rise. When the market sells a liquidity injection this fast, it is telling you the problem is bigger than the fix.
Three things keep the long end elevated. Growing US debt, now over $40 trillion for the first time. The Middle East war. And diminishing confidence in the Fed.
Bessent even admitted it. He said pushing long yields down is not really the goal, the yields just do not reflect the fundamentals. PGIM said the same, actually lowering long-term yields is not a reasonable objective.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The US 10-year is at 4.70%, back above where it sat before yesterday's buyback news.
Yesterday Treasury tried to tame the long end by boosting buybacks to at least $4 billion. The move was short-lived. The bond market says more is needed to change the direction for long-end yields.
Today the yield erased most of yesterday's drop. Even Bessent floating a bigger buyback than $4 billion only briefly slowed the rise. When the market sells a liquidity injection this fast, it is telling you the problem is bigger than the fix.
Three things keep the long end elevated. Growing US debt, now over $40 trillion for the first time. The Middle East war. And diminishing confidence in the Fed.
Bessent even admitted it. He said pushing long yields down is not really the goal, the yields just do not reflect the fundamentals. PGIM said the same, actually lowering long-term yields is not a reasonable objective.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Bitcoin Now Breaks Its 200-Day on the Treasury Buyback
Bitcoin is at 72,662 and back above the 200-day for the first time since May. I am no crypto expert, but I can tell you crypto responded immediately to the bond news.
Here is what happened. Crypto just posted one of its largest short squeezes on record, with over $3 billion in leveraged positions liquidated in 24 hours. Roughly 92% of that was shorts. Reports put the market cap gain near $280 billion in a day.
All of this hit right after the bond buyback headlines. People will point at other drivers, the White House crypto summit, new SEC rules. But the clear reason for the past two days is the prospect of lower long-end yields.
Here's why: The buyback hands bondholders liquidity, and they redeploy it into higher-yielding assets. Bitcoin is one of them.
One caution. Yields are already recouping their losses, so waiting for pullbacks and making sure they hold (if you're bullish) would be wise.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Bitcoin is at 72,662 and back above the 200-day for the first time since May. I am no crypto expert, but I can tell you crypto responded immediately to the bond news.
Here is what happened. Crypto just posted one of its largest short squeezes on record, with over $3 billion in leveraged positions liquidated in 24 hours. Roughly 92% of that was shorts. Reports put the market cap gain near $280 billion in a day.
All of this hit right after the bond buyback headlines. People will point at other drivers, the White House crypto summit, new SEC rules. But the clear reason for the past two days is the prospect of lower long-end yields.
Here's why: The buyback hands bondholders liquidity, and they redeploy it into higher-yielding assets. Bitcoin is one of them.
One caution. Yields are already recouping their losses, so waiting for pullbacks and making sure they hold (if you're bullish) would be wise.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is core PCE, not core CPI, even though both track similar trends. Why does this matter for interpreting Fed policy?
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is core PCE, not core CPI, even though both track similar trends. Why does this matter for interpreting Fed policy?
Anonymous Quiz
35%
PCE weights substitution differently — can run persistently lower than CPI
23%
PCE weights substitution differently — but PCE and CPI are identical by construction
25%
PCE weights substitution differently — though the Fed weighs CPI more heavily
17%
PCE weights substitution differently — but this only matters for forecasting
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This tool tracks the % of economic data tracked by EdgeFinder beating or missing expectations for the selected country.
A small dropdown has also been included, to allow customization and selection of multiple countries at once!
Thanks to all of our EdgeFinder users for continuing to share your feedback and support!
A macro / economic surprise index widget has been added to the asset scorecard tab.
What this tracks:
This tool tracks the % of economic data tracked by EdgeFinder beating or missing expectations for the selected country.
A small dropdown has also been included, to allow customization and selection of multiple countries at once!
Thanks to all of our EdgeFinder users for continuing to share your feedback and support!
🔥26❤9👍4
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❤7
USD/CHF Now Looking for a Pullback Into Key Fibs
Strong flush lower on USDCHF. Price is at 0.80153 after tagging 0.79491 and bouncing. The Swiss franc is at its highest in two months.
This is the same driver that moved everything this week. The Treasury buyback weakened the dollar, and that let the franc run. Eight days ago I flagged this pair as pointing lower, with the catch being that the franc is a haven and both legs can move together. The buyback took that complication off the table. The dollar leg broke, and the franc strength ran clean.
I am personally looking for pullback levels into the key fibs to continue lower. The 0.382 at 0.80248 is the first. Above it, the 0.5 at 0.80482 and the 0.618 at 0.80716. My target is the 200-day.
I am not chasing price. I want the retracement to give the entry.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Strong flush lower on USDCHF. Price is at 0.80153 after tagging 0.79491 and bouncing. The Swiss franc is at its highest in two months.
This is the same driver that moved everything this week. The Treasury buyback weakened the dollar, and that let the franc run. Eight days ago I flagged this pair as pointing lower, with the catch being that the franc is a haven and both legs can move together. The buyback took that complication off the table. The dollar leg broke, and the franc strength ran clean.
I am personally looking for pullback levels into the key fibs to continue lower. The 0.382 at 0.80248 is the first. Above it, the 0.5 at 0.80482 and the 0.618 at 0.80716. My target is the 200-day.
I am not chasing price. I want the retracement to give the entry.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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AUDUSD Now Eyes an 8th Straight Week as the Dollar Slides
AUDUSD is at 0.71618 and grinding higher, giving no pullbacks for swing traders. A resistance zone lies ahead at 0.7200 to 0.7277.
The Aussie is now headed for its eighth straight weekly gain, up nearly 4% from the June low.
Two things drive it. The dollar is broadly weak on growing worry that US debt and policy erode its purchasing power. And Australia is pulling capital in. A new 2038 bond sold with bids near five times the offer.
The RBA side is steady. Soft wages and jobs data have markets pricing just a 13% chance of a September hike, so a hold is expected. February 2027 is about 68% priced.
read the full article here.
— Alan
AUDUSD is at 0.71618 and grinding higher, giving no pullbacks for swing traders. A resistance zone lies ahead at 0.7200 to 0.7277.
The Aussie is now headed for its eighth straight weekly gain, up nearly 4% from the June low.
Two things drive it. The dollar is broadly weak on growing worry that US debt and policy erode its purchasing power. And Australia is pulling capital in. A new 2038 bond sold with bids near five times the offer.
The RBA side is steady. Soft wages and jobs data have markets pricing just a 13% chance of a September hike, so a hold is expected. February 2027 is about 68% priced.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
American-style options can only be exercised by the holder at expiration, never before.
American-style options can only be exercised by the holder at expiration, never before.
Anonymous Quiz
39%
True
61%
False
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