🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When a central bank raises interest rates, what is the intended effect?
When a central bank raises interest rates, what is the intended effect?
Anonymous Quiz
11%
Borrowing becomes more expensive — accelerating lending as banks earn higher margins
10%
Borrowing becomes more expensive — increasing purchasing power via a stronger currency
16%
Borrowing becomes more expensive — slowing spending to stimulate growth
64%
Borrowing becomes more expensive — slowing spending to cool inflation
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If you aren't tracking sentiment, you are really missing the full story.
Macro is important, price action is important, but POSITIONING is what creates uniquely asymmetric risk-reward setups.
Today's CPI, people were expecting a huge move lower in gold. That's what the data shows us. So, when it wasn't a disaster, the market rapidly moved to correct itself.
Macro is important, price action is important, but POSITIONING is what creates uniquely asymmetric risk-reward setups.
Today's CPI, people were expecting a huge move lower in gold. That's what the data shows us. So, when it wasn't a disaster, the market rapidly moved to correct itself.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The Australian and New Zealand dollars are considered "risk-on" currencies because:
The Australian and New Zealand dollars are considered "risk-on" currencies because:
Anonymous Quiz
36%
They're commodity-linked — they rise when investors seek safety
64%
They're commodity-linked — they rise when risk appetite increases
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DXY Now Gets Bid As The Market Flips Hawkish
The DXY is elevated today, though in the recent hour it is fading some gains. I have been gone a full week and before I left oil was getting elevated and yields were at key levels. I come back and oil is in the 100s, and the 10-year is just shy of 5%.
So the market is now pricing a hawkish rate hike versus the dovish path it leaned toward before. DXY is trading in a range. I have the levels marked in orange, resistance at 99.80 and support at 98.60. Tight, but that's likely the range going into FOMC.
A breakout is contingent on a few things.
Higher: a hawkish hike, oil higher, yields staying elevated, and Fed guidance signaling more hikes as inflation risk returns.
Lower: a dovish hike, oil retreating below $100, yields following down, and the Fed signaling it will wait this out.
A hike this week is almost certain near 90%.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The DXY is elevated today, though in the recent hour it is fading some gains. I have been gone a full week and before I left oil was getting elevated and yields were at key levels. I come back and oil is in the 100s, and the 10-year is just shy of 5%.
So the market is now pricing a hawkish rate hike versus the dovish path it leaned toward before. DXY is trading in a range. I have the levels marked in orange, resistance at 99.80 and support at 98.60. Tight, but that's likely the range going into FOMC.
A breakout is contingent on a few things.
Higher: a hawkish hike, oil higher, yields staying elevated, and Fed guidance signaling more hikes as inflation risk returns.
Lower: a dovish hike, oil retreating below $100, yields following down, and the Fed signaling it will wait this out.
A hike this week is almost certain near 90%.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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EURUSD Daily Chart
EUR/USD's upward trend is still technically in tact after tapping into the 50% fib and catching support. For bulls, the last level of support would be at the 61.8% fib.
Personally, I believe you can see Euro continue to trend higher if you continue to see oil and yields retreat from their relative highs.
Remember:
The Fed does NOT want to pivot into a hiking cycle. Though it seems they are at the mercy of yields and oil. If for some reason you see oil and yields retreat then you may get an "Insurance Hike," and the market takes that well.
An Insurance Hike would be a one-time hike, with the intent of holding rates until the path lower is clear. In that case, Dollar loses strength as the one-time hike is already priced in.
I'm looking to buy if I get the green light. As of now, EF is Bearish on this pair.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
EUR/USD's upward trend is still technically in tact after tapping into the 50% fib and catching support. For bulls, the last level of support would be at the 61.8% fib.
Personally, I believe you can see Euro continue to trend higher if you continue to see oil and yields retreat from their relative highs.
Remember:
The Fed does NOT want to pivot into a hiking cycle. Though it seems they are at the mercy of yields and oil. If for some reason you see oil and yields retreat then you may get an "Insurance Hike," and the market takes that well.
An Insurance Hike would be a one-time hike, with the intent of holding rates until the path lower is clear. In that case, Dollar loses strength as the one-time hike is already priced in.
I'm looking to buy if I get the green light. As of now, EF is Bearish on this pair.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
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Build stronger market conviction with these core tools:
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📈 Institutional positioning tracking via clean COT report visualizations
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❤6🔥4👀2
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Using a stop loss guarantees you will never lose more than your intended risk on a trade.
Using a stop loss guarantees you will never lose more than your intended risk on a trade.
Anonymous Quiz
61%
True
39%
False
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Crude Oil Now Breaks Out as a Second Supply Route Goes Down
Crude continues to advance, up 4.84% today, and things are not cooling down. Strikes suspended the infrastructure allocating roughly 7 million barrels per day of Saudi oil to the Red Sea. That was the alternative route around the Strait of Hormuz, and it is now halted. That is about 4% of global supply.
So take the roughly 20% of supply disrupted by Hormuz, add another 4%, and you have around 24% of the world's supply halted or disrupted in that region. That keeps oil bid, and it makes tomorrow harder.
If the Fed wants a one-time insurance hike and then to lower rates, these oil prices do not help them stay on that path. If oil keeps climbing and the geopolitics escalate, the Fed could get forced into a hiking cycle.
The FedWatch tool has shifted hawkish, now leaning toward two to four hikes by December 2027, when the market was priced for one. That is a completely different story.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Crude continues to advance, up 4.84% today, and things are not cooling down. Strikes suspended the infrastructure allocating roughly 7 million barrels per day of Saudi oil to the Red Sea. That was the alternative route around the Strait of Hormuz, and it is now halted. That is about 4% of global supply.
So take the roughly 20% of supply disrupted by Hormuz, add another 4%, and you have around 24% of the world's supply halted or disrupted in that region. That keeps oil bid, and it makes tomorrow harder.
If the Fed wants a one-time insurance hike and then to lower rates, these oil prices do not help them stay on that path. If oil keeps climbing and the geopolitics escalate, the Fed could get forced into a hiking cycle.
The FedWatch tool has shifted hawkish, now leaning toward two to four hikes by December 2027, when the market was priced for one. That is a completely different story.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Oil Daily Chart
Am I crazy for wanting to short this chart??
Piggybacking off of the chart markup above, oil definitely disrupts the Fed's preferred rate path. We know that already.
However, let's look past the obvious and discuss what could happen if oil hits that $117 recent high.
Taking a holistic view on the situation, I believe it is of best interest for both parties to end the war. On one side (Iran), you have serious economic bleeding and domestic instability. On the other (U.S.) you have mid-term elections, inflation risks, potential rate hike cycle, and the worries of what a higher rate environment could do to the AI trade and broader market.
Not to mention, the rest of the world is hurting (just look at global yields)
$117 was pricing the worst case scenario. We'd need something worse to take us past that. I personally don't think that's in the best interest of anybody.
I still need to build a trade around this idea. If price reaches $117, I'll share the position in the VIP discord.
— Alan
Am I crazy for wanting to short this chart??
Piggybacking off of the chart markup above, oil definitely disrupts the Fed's preferred rate path. We know that already.
However, let's look past the obvious and discuss what could happen if oil hits that $117 recent high.
Taking a holistic view on the situation, I believe it is of best interest for both parties to end the war. On one side (Iran), you have serious economic bleeding and domestic instability. On the other (U.S.) you have mid-term elections, inflation risks, potential rate hike cycle, and the worries of what a higher rate environment could do to the AI trade and broader market.
Not to mention, the rest of the world is hurting (just look at global yields)
$117 was pricing the worst case scenario. We'd need something worse to take us past that. I personally don't think that's in the best interest of anybody.
I still need to build a trade around this idea. If price reaches $117, I'll share the position in the VIP discord.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A trader with a 40% win rate can still be profitable if average winners are meaningfully larger than average losers.
A trader with a 40% win rate can still be profitable if average winners are meaningfully larger than average losers.
Anonymous Quiz
94%
True — profitability depends on win rate combined with reward-to-risk, not win rate alone
6%
False — a win rate below 50% guarantees a losing strategy over a large enough sample size
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Fed day gameplan:
- Personally, I think the fed is unlikely to conduct a hawkish hike. (A hike in which the dot plot also guides for more hikes than feared currently by the market.
- I am thinking a dovish hike is likely. This would be a scenario in which they do hike to maintain credibility within the bond market (which is suggesting a hike is necessary), while also limiting future rate hike expectations.
- The reason for this? Jobs data & economic growth metrics have been healthy, but showing some mixed signals recently. Meanwhile inflation is up - but largely due to oil prices (which the fed cannot control with their monetary policy tools).
My current trades:
- Reserved for VIP members. All new trades for today have just been shared here
- Join the action! If you have questions about the VIP group, please message here
- Nick
- Personally, I think the fed is unlikely to conduct a hawkish hike. (A hike in which the dot plot also guides for more hikes than feared currently by the market.
- I am thinking a dovish hike is likely. This would be a scenario in which they do hike to maintain credibility within the bond market (which is suggesting a hike is necessary), while also limiting future rate hike expectations.
- The reason for this? Jobs data & economic growth metrics have been healthy, but showing some mixed signals recently. Meanwhile inflation is up - but largely due to oil prices (which the fed cannot control with their monetary policy tools).
My current trades:
- Reserved for VIP members. All new trades for today have just been shared here
- Join the action! If you have questions about the VIP group, please message here
- Nick
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Fed hikes rates for the first increase since 2023, quarter point to a 3.75-4.00% range, 12-0. No dissents at all, which is itself hawkish. A month ago the debate was hike-versus-hold; today the whole committee agreed to move.
The dots project more.
The median end-2026 view is 3.8%, and 16 officials see at least one more hike this year.
The dots step up through 2027, with the near-term clusters sitting around 3.875% (next year) and 4.125% (next 2-3 years) per the median forecasts. Meaning, rates will stay pretty dang close to where we are now.
We'll see if Warsh commits to the hawkish narrative or walks some of it back.
The dots project more.
The median end-2026 view is 3.8%, and 16 officials see at least one more hike this year.
The dots step up through 2027, with the near-term clusters sitting around 3.875% (next year) and 4.125% (next 2-3 years) per the median forecasts. Meaning, rates will stay pretty dang close to where we are now.
We'll see if Warsh commits to the hawkish narrative or walks some of it back.
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