EURUSD Daily Chart
I'm liking this chart more and more now. Here's what I'm watching:
Euro side: relatively weak economy compared to U.S., and potentially worsening due to oil supply shocks.
Saudis told Europe oil refiners they’ll get no crude next month.
Match that with a Fed that was surprisingly hawkish and you have a clean setup. Also, US yields are recouping their gains with no signs of slowing down. This could cause DXY to break out of 100.5 and make a leg higher, thus bringing EUR/USD down.
EdgeFinder score is also very bearish on EUR/USD.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
I'm liking this chart more and more now. Here's what I'm watching:
Euro side: relatively weak economy compared to U.S., and potentially worsening due to oil supply shocks.
Saudis told Europe oil refiners they’ll get no crude next month.
Match that with a Fed that was surprisingly hawkish and you have a clean setup. Also, US yields are recouping their gains with no signs of slowing down. This could cause DXY to break out of 100.5 and make a leg higher, thus bringing EUR/USD down.
EdgeFinder score is also very bearish on EUR/USD.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
👍16❤12🔥2
The Bank of Japan is Hiking Rates
https://youtu.be/qJfZ_L4z38E
https://youtu.be/qJfZ_L4z38E
YouTube
The Bank of Japan Hiked Rates, and the Yen FELL?!
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A trader plans a 3:1 trade, but the market drifts and they enter late at a worse price. What happened to the trade's reward-to-risk?
A trader plans a 3:1 trade, but the market drifts and they enter late at a worse price. What happened to the trade's reward-to-risk?
Anonymous Quiz
7%
It improved — a later entry means less time exposed to risk
84%
It shrank — the same target and stop now sit closer to and further from entry, respectively
9%
It's unaffected as long as the stop wasn't moved
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Crude Oil Now Falls a 4th Day on Diplomacy & Supply
Oil continues its retreat today, a fourth down session, on new Middle East developments and a production ramp from Saudi Arabia. WTI is in the mid-90s.
The developments are nothing new. We see these often, and they tend to disappoint later. Trump floated meeting Iran's president at the UN and said the war will end soon, but Iran says it will only talk if the fighting and blockade end. Houthi attacks on Riyadh this weekend did not even move price.
Still, the follow-through today is strong, and it is physical. Hormuz flows hit a six-month high, averaging 17.1 million bpd. Saudi Aramco is loading 14 million barrels on seven VLCCs, ramping exports through the strait even with the East-West pipeline still down.
Unless the Iran war actually ends, I generally believe US oil stays bid above $80. The 200-day sits right there.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Oil continues its retreat today, a fourth down session, on new Middle East developments and a production ramp from Saudi Arabia. WTI is in the mid-90s.
The developments are nothing new. We see these often, and they tend to disappoint later. Trump floated meeting Iran's president at the UN and said the war will end soon, but Iran says it will only talk if the fighting and blockade end. Houthi attacks on Riyadh this weekend did not even move price.
Still, the follow-through today is strong, and it is physical. Hormuz flows hit a six-month high, averaging 17.1 million bpd. Saudi Aramco is loading 14 million barrels on seven VLCCs, ramping exports through the strait even with the East-West pipeline still down.
Unless the Iran war actually ends, I generally believe US oil stays bid above $80. The 200-day sits right there.
read the full article here.
— Alan
👍16❤7🔥4
Bitcoin Daily Chart
Bitcoin is waking up today! Up 5.50% today. Seems like bulls stepped in at the 38.2% fib retracement level and are breaking above that 83k level of resistance.
A retest looks quite interesting 👀
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
Bitcoin is waking up today! Up 5.50% today. Seems like bulls stepped in at the 38.2% fib retracement level and are breaking above that 83k level of resistance.
A retest looks quite interesting 👀
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
❤25🔥6
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When the Fed cuts rates, the dollar always weakens.
When the Fed cuts rates, the dollar always weakens.
Anonymous Quiz
40%
True
60%
False
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DXY Now Clears 100.5 as More Hikes Come Into View
The dollar index is breaking out this afternoon clearing the 100.5 resistance, the recent July high. And the breakout seems to have some follow-through.
The reason is the Fed positioned the market for more hikes. Personally I do not fully believe it, but you have to respect yields and history. History says a one-and-done hike rarely happens. A first hike after a prolonged hold or cut is usually followed by two or three more. Warsh's dot plot showed exactly that. The main exception was Greenspan's March 1997 "tap on the brakes", and even that got cut short by the Asian financial crisis.
So is one-and-done possible? Yes. But watch Fed speakers and yields. The short end is still elevated, EdgeFinder reads +4 bullish, and FedWatch still prices two to three hikes.
One note: oil is down five straight days, which helps the doves. Though it's crucial to take a holistic view and not cherry-pick.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The dollar index is breaking out this afternoon clearing the 100.5 resistance, the recent July high. And the breakout seems to have some follow-through.
The reason is the Fed positioned the market for more hikes. Personally I do not fully believe it, but you have to respect yields and history. History says a one-and-done hike rarely happens. A first hike after a prolonged hold or cut is usually followed by two or three more. Warsh's dot plot showed exactly that. The main exception was Greenspan's March 1997 "tap on the brakes", and even that got cut short by the Asian financial crisis.
So is one-and-done possible? Yes. But watch Fed speakers and yields. The short end is still elevated, EdgeFinder reads +4 bullish, and FedWatch still prices two to three hikes.
One note: oil is down five straight days, which helps the doves. Though it's crucial to take a holistic view and not cherry-pick.
read the full article here.
— Alan
👍21❤12
EURUSD Daily Chart
I recently went short the Euro. But we'll see if DXY continues the momentum to the upside.
Some things that support the trade:
US Yields elevated VS Europes, CME Fedwatch still showing potential hikes on the horizon, divergence in EUR vs USD on Eco Surprise Index, and of course an EdgeFinder bearish score of -7.
We have some EUR economic data early in the AM so stay tuned in the discord for any trade management updates.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
I recently went short the Euro. But we'll see if DXY continues the momentum to the upside.
Some things that support the trade:
US Yields elevated VS Europes, CME Fedwatch still showing potential hikes on the horizon, divergence in EUR vs USD on Eco Surprise Index, and of course an EdgeFinder bearish score of -7.
We have some EUR economic data early in the AM so stay tuned in the discord for any trade management updates.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
❤30🔥9👀3
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A stock is up 8% on the day and still climbing. A trader buys "before it runs further." What's the main risk?
A stock is up 8% on the day and still climbing. A trader buys "before it runs further." What's the main risk?
Anonymous Quiz
54%
Poor reward-to-risk
29%
The stock likely reverses after an 8% day
17%
High-volume days carry more slippage
❤10👍7
Guys and Gals, The 2-Year Is Pushing Toward 5%
The 2-year yield is jumping today, at 4.883% and getting close to the 4.9 handle. This is very interesting, because we may be about to see the 2-year at 5%.
A 2-year near 5% is a signal that Fed tightening is becoming a real possibility, not just something that may come. The 2-year tracks Fed policy directly, so it moving here is the market pricing an actual hiking path.
The reason for the jump: the 10-year is also back above 5%, its highest since 2007. Oil is rising. And the S&P services and manufacturing PMIs came in strong this morning. Barr said further tightening may be necessary to hit 2% sooner rather than later.
A rising 2-year adds to dollar strength, pressures metals, and could pressure equities. This is an important chart to watch the next few days.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The 2-year yield is jumping today, at 4.883% and getting close to the 4.9 handle. This is very interesting, because we may be about to see the 2-year at 5%.
A 2-year near 5% is a signal that Fed tightening is becoming a real possibility, not just something that may come. The 2-year tracks Fed policy directly, so it moving here is the market pricing an actual hiking path.
The reason for the jump: the 10-year is also back above 5%, its highest since 2007. Oil is rising. And the S&P services and manufacturing PMIs came in strong this morning. Barr said further tightening may be necessary to hit 2% sooner rather than later.
A rising 2-year adds to dollar strength, pressures metals, and could pressure equities. This is an important chart to watch the next few days.
read the full article here.
— Alan
👍27🔥9😱4
Russell 2000 (RTY) Daily Chart
The Russell, home to small-caps (companies with floating debt loads and heavy reliance on variable bank loans), is getting close to pivotal support and the 200-day SMA.
If it loses those key levels and yields stay elevated, companies in the Russell really start to hurt.
I don't like shorting equities but this looks clean.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
The Russell, home to small-caps (companies with floating debt loads and heavy reliance on variable bank loans), is getting close to pivotal support and the 200-day SMA.
If it loses those key levels and yields stay elevated, companies in the Russell really start to hurt.
I don't like shorting equities but this looks clean.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
❤15👍7🔥3
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Mortgage rates rise sharply over six months. Where does the pressure usually show up first?
Mortgage rates rise sharply over six months. Where does the pressure usually show up first?
Anonymous Quiz
50%
Sales volume and new applications — affordability drops before prices adjust
22%
Home prices — they fall immediately to match the new rate
19%
Rents — landlords raise them the same week rates move
9%
Construction jobs — builders lay off crews before sales slow
❤7👍2😁2
Gold Now Holds Firm Even as the 2-Year Nears 5%
Gold this afternoon is reacting nicely to the 0.618 retracement at 4,242, the same positive reaction you saw on September 16 when Warsh was surprisingly hawkish. Even in that moment, which should have been super bearish for gold, buyers stepped in at the 0.618. It is happening again.
Gold is holding despite the 2-year and 10-year finishing up+ 3% yesterday, with the 2-year near 5% and the 10-year above 5%. That is real relative strength. Though important to note: the 0.618 is the last line of defense for the bulls.
US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased deal, Tehran reopening the strait in exchange for the US lifting the blockade. Iran floated a 60-day ceasefire road map. It is more substantive than past rounds, though neither side has conceded and the rhetoric is still hot.
This trade is on its last line of defense. Break the 0.618 and you likely see follow-through lower. Be careful :)
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold this afternoon is reacting nicely to the 0.618 retracement at 4,242, the same positive reaction you saw on September 16 when Warsh was surprisingly hawkish. Even in that moment, which should have been super bearish for gold, buyers stepped in at the 0.618. It is happening again.
Gold is holding despite the 2-year and 10-year finishing up+ 3% yesterday, with the 2-year near 5% and the 10-year above 5%. That is real relative strength. Though important to note: the 0.618 is the last line of defense for the bulls.
US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased deal, Tehran reopening the strait in exchange for the US lifting the blockade. Iran floated a 60-day ceasefire road map. It is more substantive than past rounds, though neither side has conceded and the rhetoric is still hot.
This trade is on its last line of defense. Break the 0.618 and you likely see follow-through lower. Be careful :)
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤23👍11🔥3
EURGBP Daily Chart
Classic previous support turned resistance. With a cherry on top being the 200 Day SMA acting as another layer of overhead resistance.
This trade to the short-side looks pretty clean, with the EdgeFinder's Eco Surprise Index currently supporting the GBP over the Euro.
EURGBP was getting a bearish reading earlier this week but is now in neutral territory. I'll be waiting for a little more premium and the greenlight from EdgeFinder before jumping in.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
Classic previous support turned resistance. With a cherry on top being the 200 Day SMA acting as another layer of overhead resistance.
This trade to the short-side looks pretty clean, with the EdgeFinder's Eco Surprise Index currently supporting the GBP over the Euro.
EURGBP was getting a bearish reading earlier this week but is now in neutral territory. I'll be waiting for a little more premium and the greenlight from EdgeFinder before jumping in.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
❤21👍7
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A country's currency strengthens 15% against its trading partners over a year. Which sector typically feels it first?
A country's currency strengthens 15% against its trading partners over a year. Which sector typically feels it first?
Anonymous Quiz
28%
Importers — stronger currency raises the cost of foreign goods
55%
Exporters — their goods become more expensive for foreign buyers
17%
Domestic retailers — consumers spend less when the currency rises
❤17👍3
The Yen Bounced Because Trump Flagged It, and Japan Validated it
USD/JPY is pulling back after the yen snaps a five-session losing streak. The catalyst: Japan's finance minister Katayama said Trump raised concerns about the weak yen directly with PM Takaichi at the UN summit, and Takaichi agreed an undervalued yen is a problem.
When a US president openly flags yen weakness, joint intervention gets much easier to justify. Tokyo already ran a rate check on September 18, often a precursor.
The rate gap is the other half. Fed hike bets and surging US yields keep the US-Japan differential wide, which is why the yen kept sliding into this. The pullback is likely intervention fear and profit taking.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USD/JPY is pulling back after the yen snaps a five-session losing streak. The catalyst: Japan's finance minister Katayama said Trump raised concerns about the weak yen directly with PM Takaichi at the UN summit, and Takaichi agreed an undervalued yen is a problem.
When a US president openly flags yen weakness, joint intervention gets much easier to justify. Tokyo already ran a rate check on September 18, often a precursor.
The rate gap is the other half. Fed hike bets and surging US yields keep the US-Japan differential wide, which is why the yen kept sliding into this. The pullback is likely intervention fear and profit taking.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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