EURUSD Daily Chart
I recently went short the Euro. But we'll see if DXY continues the momentum to the upside.
Some things that support the trade:
US Yields elevated VS Europes, CME Fedwatch still showing potential hikes on the horizon, divergence in EUR vs USD on Eco Surprise Index, and of course an EdgeFinder bearish score of -7.
We have some EUR economic data early in the AM so stay tuned in the discord for any trade management updates.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
I recently went short the Euro. But we'll see if DXY continues the momentum to the upside.
Some things that support the trade:
US Yields elevated VS Europes, CME Fedwatch still showing potential hikes on the horizon, divergence in EUR vs USD on Eco Surprise Index, and of course an EdgeFinder bearish score of -7.
We have some EUR economic data early in the AM so stay tuned in the discord for any trade management updates.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
❤30🔥9👀3
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A stock is up 8% on the day and still climbing. A trader buys "before it runs further." What's the main risk?
A stock is up 8% on the day and still climbing. A trader buys "before it runs further." What's the main risk?
Anonymous Quiz
54%
Poor reward-to-risk
29%
The stock likely reverses after an 8% day
17%
High-volume days carry more slippage
❤10👍7
Guys and Gals, The 2-Year Is Pushing Toward 5%
The 2-year yield is jumping today, at 4.883% and getting close to the 4.9 handle. This is very interesting, because we may be about to see the 2-year at 5%.
A 2-year near 5% is a signal that Fed tightening is becoming a real possibility, not just something that may come. The 2-year tracks Fed policy directly, so it moving here is the market pricing an actual hiking path.
The reason for the jump: the 10-year is also back above 5%, its highest since 2007. Oil is rising. And the S&P services and manufacturing PMIs came in strong this morning. Barr said further tightening may be necessary to hit 2% sooner rather than later.
A rising 2-year adds to dollar strength, pressures metals, and could pressure equities. This is an important chart to watch the next few days.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The 2-year yield is jumping today, at 4.883% and getting close to the 4.9 handle. This is very interesting, because we may be about to see the 2-year at 5%.
A 2-year near 5% is a signal that Fed tightening is becoming a real possibility, not just something that may come. The 2-year tracks Fed policy directly, so it moving here is the market pricing an actual hiking path.
The reason for the jump: the 10-year is also back above 5%, its highest since 2007. Oil is rising. And the S&P services and manufacturing PMIs came in strong this morning. Barr said further tightening may be necessary to hit 2% sooner rather than later.
A rising 2-year adds to dollar strength, pressures metals, and could pressure equities. This is an important chart to watch the next few days.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Russell 2000 (RTY) Daily Chart
The Russell, home to small-caps (companies with floating debt loads and heavy reliance on variable bank loans), is getting close to pivotal support and the 200-day SMA.
If it loses those key levels and yields stay elevated, companies in the Russell really start to hurt.
I don't like shorting equities but this looks clean.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
The Russell, home to small-caps (companies with floating debt loads and heavy reliance on variable bank loans), is getting close to pivotal support and the 200-day SMA.
If it loses those key levels and yields stay elevated, companies in the Russell really start to hurt.
I don't like shorting equities but this looks clean.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
❤15👍7🔥3
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Mortgage rates rise sharply over six months. Where does the pressure usually show up first?
Mortgage rates rise sharply over six months. Where does the pressure usually show up first?
Anonymous Quiz
50%
Sales volume and new applications — affordability drops before prices adjust
22%
Home prices — they fall immediately to match the new rate
19%
Rents — landlords raise them the same week rates move
9%
Construction jobs — builders lay off crews before sales slow
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Gold Now Holds Firm Even as the 2-Year Nears 5%
Gold this afternoon is reacting nicely to the 0.618 retracement at 4,242, the same positive reaction you saw on September 16 when Warsh was surprisingly hawkish. Even in that moment, which should have been super bearish for gold, buyers stepped in at the 0.618. It is happening again.
Gold is holding despite the 2-year and 10-year finishing up+ 3% yesterday, with the 2-year near 5% and the 10-year above 5%. That is real relative strength. Though important to note: the 0.618 is the last line of defense for the bulls.
US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased deal, Tehran reopening the strait in exchange for the US lifting the blockade. Iran floated a 60-day ceasefire road map. It is more substantive than past rounds, though neither side has conceded and the rhetoric is still hot.
This trade is on its last line of defense. Break the 0.618 and you likely see follow-through lower. Be careful :)
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold this afternoon is reacting nicely to the 0.618 retracement at 4,242, the same positive reaction you saw on September 16 when Warsh was surprisingly hawkish. Even in that moment, which should have been super bearish for gold, buyers stepped in at the 0.618. It is happening again.
Gold is holding despite the 2-year and 10-year finishing up+ 3% yesterday, with the 2-year near 5% and the 10-year above 5%. That is real relative strength. Though important to note: the 0.618 is the last line of defense for the bulls.
US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased deal, Tehran reopening the strait in exchange for the US lifting the blockade. Iran floated a 60-day ceasefire road map. It is more substantive than past rounds, though neither side has conceded and the rhetoric is still hot.
This trade is on its last line of defense. Break the 0.618 and you likely see follow-through lower. Be careful :)
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤23👍11🔥3
EURGBP Daily Chart
Classic previous support turned resistance. With a cherry on top being the 200 Day SMA acting as another layer of overhead resistance.
This trade to the short-side looks pretty clean, with the EdgeFinder's Eco Surprise Index currently supporting the GBP over the Euro.
EURGBP was getting a bearish reading earlier this week but is now in neutral territory. I'll be waiting for a little more premium and the greenlight from EdgeFinder before jumping in.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
Classic previous support turned resistance. With a cherry on top being the 200 Day SMA acting as another layer of overhead resistance.
This trade to the short-side looks pretty clean, with the EdgeFinder's Eco Surprise Index currently supporting the GBP over the Euro.
EURGBP was getting a bearish reading earlier this week but is now in neutral territory. I'll be waiting for a little more premium and the greenlight from EdgeFinder before jumping in.
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
❤21👍7
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A country's currency strengthens 15% against its trading partners over a year. Which sector typically feels it first?
A country's currency strengthens 15% against its trading partners over a year. Which sector typically feels it first?
Anonymous Quiz
28%
Importers — stronger currency raises the cost of foreign goods
55%
Exporters — their goods become more expensive for foreign buyers
17%
Domestic retailers — consumers spend less when the currency rises
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The Yen Bounced Because Trump Flagged It, and Japan Validated it
USD/JPY is pulling back after the yen snaps a five-session losing streak. The catalyst: Japan's finance minister Katayama said Trump raised concerns about the weak yen directly with PM Takaichi at the UN summit, and Takaichi agreed an undervalued yen is a problem.
When a US president openly flags yen weakness, joint intervention gets much easier to justify. Tokyo already ran a rate check on September 18, often a precursor.
The rate gap is the other half. Fed hike bets and surging US yields keep the US-Japan differential wide, which is why the yen kept sliding into this. The pullback is likely intervention fear and profit taking.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USD/JPY is pulling back after the yen snaps a five-session losing streak. The catalyst: Japan's finance minister Katayama said Trump raised concerns about the weak yen directly with PM Takaichi at the UN summit, and Takaichi agreed an undervalued yen is a problem.
When a US president openly flags yen weakness, joint intervention gets much easier to justify. Tokyo already ran a rate check on September 18, often a precursor.
The rate gap is the other half. Fed hike bets and surging US yields keep the US-Japan differential wide, which is why the yen kept sliding into this. The pullback is likely intervention fear and profit taking.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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USD/JPY Daily Chart
Hoping we get an actual intervention out of this. I'm patiently waiting to start my USD/JPY long campaign!
There could be a world where the Fed outpaces BoJ in rate hikes. This would increase the carry trade trend and provide me larger positive swaps!
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
Hoping we get an actual intervention out of this. I'm patiently waiting to start my USD/JPY long campaign!
There could be a world where the Fed outpaces BoJ in rate hikes. This would increase the carry trade trend and provide me larger positive swaps!
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
👍22❤9
Chris & Nick had a really important discussion yesterday on the bond market.
Whether you trade currencies, commodities, or stocks - this is the one market to rule them all!
https://youtu.be/NyH6Y-gDfsM
Whether you trade currencies, commodities, or stocks - this is the one market to rule them all!
https://youtu.be/NyH6Y-gDfsM
YouTube
Warning: the Bond Market is Crashing
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👉 Join our Free Discord: https://bit.ly/4uokxQp
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❤9👍5
A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
Follow your trading system, not your gut. Gold shorts set up on Friday with a beautiful confirmation from EdgeFinder. Floating 5:1 already! Let's see where it goes - Nick
This gold trade signal was sent to our VIP members.
If you'd like to see all trades we take, message here for details on how to join
If you'd like to see all trades we take, message here for details on how to join
❤5
Gold Now Crashes 4% as the 0.618 Finally Breaks
What a horrendous start to the week for gold. It is down almost 4% on the first day, and we have a very volatile week ahead.
On the open, yields are screaming higher and the chance for more rate hikes is becoming more of a reality. I think gold is now playing catch-up to what it should have been doing the past couple of weeks. Yields and oil have been higher, yet gold stayed stubbornly bid at the 0.618. Today it decided to realize what is going on, and it is catching up to the downside.
Oil spiked to Brent $107, and October hike odds jumped past 70%. We are now getting very close to the $4,000 higher-timeframe support.
If the rate-hike story keeps solidifying, gold's path really could continue lower. This may just be the beginning of a bigger unwind. PCE Wednesday, payrolls Friday.
read the full article here.
— Alan
What a horrendous start to the week for gold. It is down almost 4% on the first day, and we have a very volatile week ahead.
On the open, yields are screaming higher and the chance for more rate hikes is becoming more of a reality. I think gold is now playing catch-up to what it should have been doing the past couple of weeks. Yields and oil have been higher, yet gold stayed stubbornly bid at the 0.618. Today it decided to realize what is going on, and it is catching up to the downside.
Oil spiked to Brent $107, and October hike odds jumped past 70%. We are now getting very close to the $4,000 higher-timeframe support.
If the rate-hike story keeps solidifying, gold's path really could continue lower. This may just be the beginning of a bigger unwind. PCE Wednesday, payrolls Friday.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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Silver Daily Chart
Silver on the other hand is still at the 61.8% 👀
Like many others.. I myself am sat on the sideline of the Gold short trade. But, silver could be a nice catchup if you start to see a true meltdown.
EdgeFinder isn't bearish just yet..
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
Silver on the other hand is still at the 61.8% 👀
Like many others.. I myself am sat on the sideline of the Gold short trade. But, silver could be a nice catchup if you start to see a true meltdown.
EdgeFinder isn't bearish just yet..
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
👍23❤14
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A weak Treasury auction, with low demand relative to supply, can push yields higher across the curve.
A weak Treasury auction, with low demand relative to supply, can push yields higher across the curve.
Anonymous Quiz
67%
True
33%
False
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The Euro Now Hits a 16-Month Low
The euro is at its lowest since May 2025 as stalled Hormuz talks keep oil bid.
Although West Texas Intermediate is seeing relief, Brent is still above $100. All of that lands on the euro.
Here is the part worth understanding. The ECB is not dovish... Eurozone inflation is above 3% and could near 4% by year-end, Spain just printed 5%, and markets price up to four more ECB hikes over the next year. Yet the euro is still falling. Why? The Fed is out-hawking the ECB, and pretty much every other central bank for that matter. Lagarde said inflation has not created real second-round effects yet, so a measured response is appropriate, and the market heard fewer ECB hikes against a Fed already at 4% and pricing more.
Price is sitting on the 1.1350 support shelf that held since July and Trump just exposed that several EU member countries did not release as much oil and refined products from reserves as they promised... Ouch.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The euro is at its lowest since May 2025 as stalled Hormuz talks keep oil bid.
Although West Texas Intermediate is seeing relief, Brent is still above $100. All of that lands on the euro.
Here is the part worth understanding. The ECB is not dovish... Eurozone inflation is above 3% and could near 4% by year-end, Spain just printed 5%, and markets price up to four more ECB hikes over the next year. Yet the euro is still falling. Why? The Fed is out-hawking the ECB, and pretty much every other central bank for that matter. Lagarde said inflation has not created real second-round effects yet, so a measured response is appropriate, and the market heard fewer ECB hikes against a Fed already at 4% and pricing more.
Price is sitting on the 1.1350 support shelf that held since July and Trump just exposed that several EU member countries did not release as much oil and refined products from reserves as they promised... Ouch.
read the full article here.
— Alan
👍17❤8🔥8
GBP/USD Daily Chart
Not very often when you see a major currency pair at one of its extremes. Usually you trade the bounce, as currencies are mean-reverting.
But today you have a real case for continued dollar strength, which could cause GBP to break out of it's long range. If it does - perhaps a big move lies ahead.
Pound is getting a neutral reading on EdgeFinder right now. If it turns bearish I just might take it!
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
Not very often when you see a major currency pair at one of its extremes. Usually you trade the bounce, as currencies are mean-reverting.
But today you have a real case for continued dollar strength, which could cause GBP to break out of it's long range. If it does - perhaps a big move lies ahead.
Pound is getting a neutral reading on EdgeFinder right now. If it turns bearish I just might take it!
If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here! Today is the last day for 40% off.
— Alan
❤23👍11🔥4
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A weaker-than-expected jobs report can push stocks higher, even though it signals a softer economy.
A weaker-than-expected jobs report can push stocks higher, even though it signals a softer economy.
Anonymous Quiz
67%
True
33%
False
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