Approximate course. It is approaching Dnipro.

15 km from Dnipro

Approaching the city.
Altitude: 100 metres

Over the city

The missile circled past eastern Dnipro and is flying southeast.

It turned south towards Vilnyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Current location

Changed course to Zaporizhzhia. Approaching the city

Flew over the airport to the eastern suburbs

Turning south to the southern suburbs

Explosion in Zaporizhzhia City

The Iskander-K cruise missile impacted somewhere here. This area was also targeted by Tornado-S rockets last week.

Approximate route of the Iskander-K cruise missile. It was launched from near Liski, Voronezh Oblast.

https://t.me/PubgWithoutSaving/887

Russian drone activity on Ukrainian logistics on the important Zaporizhzhia-Orikhiv highway in Komyshuvakha. No anti-drone nets have been installed on this stretch, if at all.

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.636940&lng=35.636215&z=11&d=20563&c=1&l=0

The battle of Rai-Oleksandrivka has begun. This will be one of the most important battles for Spring 2026 as it paves the way for a further Russian advance to the outskirts of Slovyansk.

Currently, the first Russian soldiers have managed to enter the eastern-most houses of Rai-Oleksandrivka. However, the most important areas right now are on the flanks, where Russian progress has largely stalled.

Ukrainian forces are actively counterattacking on the southern (left) flank to the town, attempting to clear the villages of Lypivka, Nykyforivka, and Fedorivka Druha. Russia is trying to develop their offensive in the surrounding forested areas, and is utilising small groups of infiltrators along the Bakhmut - Slovyansk Highway up to the Siverskyi-Donets Canal.

On the northern (right) flank to the town, Russia firmly maintains the initiative, however is struggling to consolidate in the fields and forested areas south of Kryva Luka. Capturing Kryva Luka and the nearby tactical heights is crucial to supporting the assault on Rai-Oleksandrivka, as any stable Ukrainian positions being left along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, especially on the hills there, would threaten the entire Russian operation. However, due to recent successes in and around Kalenyky and Riznykivka, clearing operations in the fields surrounding Kryva Luka will now be less complicated.

Once Rai-Oleksandrivka falls, the path to the neighbouring city of Mykolaivka will be open. I expect we will see an intensification of attacks from the southern flank, utilising the tactical height ridgeline which the Siverskyi Donets Canal runs along all the way to Mykolaivka. Mykolaivka is effectively the "gateway" to Slovyansk itself.

Meanwhile, the neighbouring Lyman direction is also affecting this sector. Russian advances along the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River allows them to threaten fortified Ukrainian positions on the southern bank of the river that protect the northern (right) flank of Rai-Oleksandrivka. Ukraine is actively attempting to disrupt this by counterattacking east of Lyman and in and around Yampil-Ozerne.

UKMTO reports that another ship was attacked by the IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz, this time 8 nautical miles west of Iran. No damage or casualties are reported, and the vessel is currently stationary.

Unidentified missile from Belgorod to Kharkiv Oblast

Likely S-300 air defence working on Ukrainian UAVs

Around 30 minutes ago, another Russian cruise missile targeted Zaporizhzhia City. This time it was a Kh-59/69 cruise missile launched by a Su-35 north of Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The missile targeted something in the Sotsmisto District of the city, however the warhead failed to detonate upon impact.

Preparations for an upcoming large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine involving strategic aviation are underway.

Over the last 24 hours, 2 Tu-95MS strategic bombers were redeployed from Olenya Airbase to Engels-2 Airbase to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. 1 of these aircraft has since returned to Olenya Airbase after being equipped with missiles, where it will remain until the upcoming attack. The second one is still in the air right now, and will arrive at Engels-2 Airbase in the next couple of hours. We can expect additional redeployments and missile equipments in the far east to take place in the coming days too.

As I mentioned yesterday, there is a threat of an attack involving missiles not launched by Tu-95/160 bombers in the coming days, however as I stated in that post, there is a possibility that it will be combined with the next attack involving strategic aviation.

In addition to the Tu-95MS strategic bombers, after significant accumulation, Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Iskander-K cruise missiles have been delivered to various launch points surrounding Ukraine, including in Bryansk Oblast, Crimea, and Taganrog (Rostov Oblast). The scale of these deliveries is currently unknown, but it could be higher than usual.

Kalibr cruise missiles from either the Black Sea Fleet at Novorossiysk Naval Base (Krasnodar Krai), or Buyan-M corvettes at Kaspiysk Naval Base (Caspian Sea) are also likely to be used.

There is also a threat of Tu-22m3 strategic bombers from Olenya Airbase launching Kh-22/32 cruise missiles at the northern regions of Ukraine.

There is no information about potential usage of Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles or Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles as of now, but it is not ruled out.

Because it's unclear whether there will be two smaller attacks or one larger one, its difficult to put a more precise timeline for when the next attack will take place. But for now, we can say with decent confidence that it will take place anywhere from 12 hours to 5 days from now.