Regarding the situation in Rai-Oleksandrivka.

I've had several people ask me about the status of this key town east of Slovyansk following the recent geolocations of Russian flag raises and the claim of its capture by the Russian Ministry of Defence.

As of now, I can confirm that claims of its capture by Russian troops are false. It is definitely contested, but the scale of Russian control is currently unknown. I'm working to confirm which streets Russia has been able to consolidate on, if any.

It is known that the first Russian soldiers were able to enter the town in mid-April, but were unable to ever consolidate due to the presence of several uncleared Ukrainian strongpoints east of the town. Since then, the number of Russian soldiers present in the eastern streets has steadily increased, but because there are areas up to 7 km east of Rai-Oleksandrivka not yet under Russian control, I personally doubt the Russian control in the town is more than 50%.

For now, I have extended the grey-zone from the eastern streets to include most of the town. I will subsequently add any control zones for Russia if/when I am able to determine their extent.

Locations where Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have been present in the last week.

As you can see, Ukraine continues to maintain a presence in numerous positions and strongpoints east of Rai-Oleksandrivka, while Russian forces carry out deep infiltrations to the west.

Prior to this claim by the Russian MOD, the only stable Russian positions close to Rai-Oleksandrivka were in the gullies directly east of the town, and the trenches southwest of Kalenyky.

The IRGC has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, in response to over 100 overnight Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon.

Reuters reports that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon that will begin at 4pm local time (2 mins from now).

The deal was reportedly reached with the help of Iran, as well as American and Qatari negotiators.

The fifth ceasefire this month?

This ceasefire will be the GREATEST CEASEFIRE EVER!

Thank you for your attention to this matter! WFW

Assuming Reuters' claim is correct, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah should begin now.

Israel is not going to adhere to a ceasefire after 4 of its soldiers, including a battalion commander, were killed.

Also, you can just look at the recent rhetoric from Israeli officials about how Trump has "betrayed" them. It is not in Israel's strategic interests to stop fighting now, especially as they are yet to capture the rest of the main Hezbollah strongholds near the forward operating line of their troops.

My prediction is that Israel will carry out some artillery shelling and limited drone strikes, Hezbollah will respond with FPV drone strikes on IDF vehicles, and the IDF will launch another airstrike campaign like we saw today.

Meanwhile, Trump:

An Israeli airstrike targeted the town of Nabatieh al-Fawqa, 5 minutes after the beginning of the ceasefire.

It's now quiet in southern Lebanon.

Reports of new airstrikes in the last 10 minutes are false.

New Israeli airstrikes on the Nabatieh area of southern Lebanon.

The IDF claims it carried out over 150 airstrikes against southern and eastern Lebanon over the last 16 hours.

Israeli artillery shelling is targeting the town of Jabal er Rafiaa. Drones and fighter jets continue to fly over southern Lebanon.

Repeated Israeli airstrikes on the city of Nabatieh, southern Lebanon.

Continued Israeli airstrikes on the city of Nabatieh, southern Lebanon.

— 🇮🇱/🇱🇧 Israeli Channel 12: ‘A ceasefire does not mean ceasing fire. It means not escalating the attacks.’

@Middle_East_Spectator