Kh-22 is entering Kherson Oblast, flying past Stanislav.

Approximate flight route right now

Explosion in Mykolaiv City.

Around 25 minutes ago, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet entered airspace over Ukrainian-controlled territory for the first time in years, launched a Kh-59/69 cruise missile at Sumy City (which impacted), before returning safely to Kursk Oblast.

The Su-35 entered via the village of Turya, flew over the town of Uhroidy, Sumy Oblast, and made a sharp turn north, flying back past Sudzha, Kursk Oblast.

It's possible that it was testing for a Ukrainian air defence response. If so, there was none. And it appears that Russia is now fairly confident that Ukraine does not currently possess any PAC-2/3 interceptor missiles necessary to shoot down their aviation. Additionally, it was known that no Ukrainian tactical aircraft were airborne over Sumy Oblast at the time.

For reference, Russia usually launches Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and KAB glide-bombs from at least 45 km behind the frontline. Recently there were instances of Su-34s launching KABs from unusually close to the frontline in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts, including once where it flew within 7 km of the frontline.

However, this is beyond anything I have ever seen, and to my knowledge, hasn't occurred since 2022.

The Russian Ministry of Defence claims that a Russian fighter jet shot down a Ukrainian MiG-29 today.

Around 2 hours ago, I reported on an interception attempt carried out by a Russian Su-35 flying near Horlivka, using an R-37/77 air-to-air missile, against a Ukrainian tactical aircraft launching glide-bombs at Kostyantynivka from west of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast.

It is not known if this is the same event, and the claim made by the Russian MoD remains unconfirmed.

🇷🇺Russia launched 4 Banderol cruise missiles towards Chornomorsk port, Odesa region

~ 1 missile was shot down
~ 3 missiles hit the port area
~ 🔥Fire in the port area

During the day, Russia launched one of their largest ever jet-drone attacks on Ukraine, consisting of more than 75 Geran-4/5 jet-drones.

The main target was Kyiv Oblast, where ~75 drones attacked the region. While most of the drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defence, several impacts were recorded in the city of Brovary, resulting in large fires broke out. Additional Ukrainian air defence assets were deployed to the Brovary area in recent days in response to the repeated Russian attacks.

Additionally, one Geran-4 drone launched from Crimea flew for over 920 km to Rivne Oblast, before being shot down over the southern outskirts of Dubno, Rivne Oblast. This breaks the record for the longest Russian jet-drone flight so far during this war.

Multiple fires seen burning in Zaporizhzhia City this afternoon following a series of Russian Molniya FPV drone strikes.

Russian KAB glide-bombs struck the Kryvyi Rih Therrmal Power Plant in the city of Zelenodolsk, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, forcing the facility to temporarily suspend power generation.

Overnight, at least four Russian S8000 Banderol cruise missiles attacked Chornomorsk Port, Odesa Oblast.

One of them was shot down by Ukrainian air defence, while the rest impacted, resulting in fires breaking out.

Overnight, two Russian Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from near Liski, Voronezh Oblast, impacted the town of Krasnopavlivka, Kharkiv Oblast.

One of the two missiles was equipped with a cluster warhead.

Video credit: @falconintel.

❗️Preparations for the next large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine will be completed today. It will involve a mix of Kh-101 cruise missiles launched by strategic bombers, Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and likely Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.

6-7 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. They are all either stationed at Olenya Airbase, or are in the air right now, redeploying there from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East. 2-3 Tu-160M strategic bombers are also equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase.

Additionally, over 30 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles have been accumulated at launch sites in Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov Oblasts. Kn-23 ballistic missiles are ready at launch sites near Liski, Voronezh Oblast.

It is also expected that a large number of Geran-2 drones and Geran-4 jet-drones will be launched (likely more than 200).

The highest threat is to Kyiv City (especially the western, northwestern, northern, southeastern, and eastern districts), Kyiv Oblast (Brovary, Boryspil, and Fastiv), parts of Kharkiv City, parts of Poltava City, and parts of western Dnipro. Other cities may be hit too, however Russian reconnaissance drones have been the most active over Kyiv.

Presumably, the main targets will be defence industries and logistics warehouses. Unrelated military targets in the border regions will also probably be targeted under the cover of the large-scale attack.

In my opinion, the attack will either be carried out tonight or tomorrow night.

Russian Geran-4 jet-drones struck two more dry cargo ships in the western Black Sea, which the Russian Ministry of Defence claims were delivering equipment for the Ukrainian military.

Update: Preparations are complete now. All 6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers from the Far East have landed at Olenya Airbase.

The highest threat is for tonight, between 12am and 6am local time.

Based on recent Russian reconnaissance drone activity and previous targeting patterns, these are the areas of Kyiv Oblast at the highest risk for this upcoming combined Russian missile and drone attack.

But, in theory, any part of Kyiv Oblast could be hit. These are just the areas Russia has been most interested in scouting out, although its often difficult to differentiate between reconnaissance on potential targets and reconnaissance on potential air defence positions to find the optimal flight routes.

Presumably, the main targets will once again be defence industries and logistics warehouses.

Now that I think about it, there could be a threat to western Ukraine as well.

There’s a possibility that the single Geran-4 jet-drone which flew to Rivne Oblast yesterday was equipped with a camera for reconnaissance. And Kh-101 cruise missiles (which will be used in this upcoming attack) are frequently used for striking areas outside the range of Iskander-M ballistic missiles.