With these major Ukrainian advances in the Lyman & Slovyansk directions, monthly frontline km² changes are gonna look crazy for September.

Obviously, as I've always said, this is a war of attrition, where success is measured in attrition dealt to your enemy relative to his size. Km² advances on the side inflicting the higher levels of attrition (Russia) are typically a biproduct of that successful attrition.

But its undoubtable that Ukraine's successes here have been a mix of extreme incompetence by the Russian Zapad command, and a very well-planned and executed operation by the Ukrainian command, who has long evolved from the hard lessons learned during the 2023 counteroffensive and the Kursk operation.

These Ukrainian advances will delay the battle for Slovyansk by at least several months (and Kramatorsk by extension, as both cities would likely have to be taken simultaneously in my opinion), and will prevent Russia from re-entering Lyman (let alone capturing it) for some time, resulting in many more Russian casualties that will be suffered in the future. The southern Ukrainian bridgehead east of the Oskil River is also now safe from being cut off from the south, and Svyatohirsk has been re-established as a safe, rear logistical hub for the Lyman direction, as it is now around 25 km from the nearest Russian-controlled territory.

In turn, I think we can expect an intensification of Russian offensive operations towards Druzhkivka and Dobropillya, with the eventual goal of developing a large left flank to Kramatorsk, cutting off the main highways leading into the city from the west. I also advise you all to keep an eye out on Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast, and Chernihiv Oblast, the latter of which may see some cross-border incursions soon aimed at stretching limited Ukrainian manpower.

The Russian presence in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is at risk of disappearing. 🇺🇦🇷🇺
The blocking of Starlink and the shortage of troops in the Vostok Group (due to the redeployment of troops to other fronts) have led to a decline in Russian territorial control in that oblast from 420 square kilometers in early January to just 70 square kilometers by the end of September.
This has pushed the fighting back to the borders of the Donetsk front and even several kilometers further inland, jeopardizing positions captured by the Russians in the first half of 2025.
It would not be surprising if the Russian presence (understood as solid control) were to end soon. As I mentioned in June, the countermeasures to resolve the Starlink blockade would last until the end of the year, so there are at least three difficult months ahead for the Russian armed forces in the south (even despite the advances in Orikhiv).

Life goes on in the town of Novodonetske, Donetsk Oblast, as Russian FPV drones hover overhead.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump has rejected Iran's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and plans to resume his bombing campaign against Iran after the November midterms.

The Pentagon has quietly added 37 new injured personnel to their tally of casualties caused by the war with Iran today, increasing the total to 861.

The new casualties reported include 29 U.S. sailors and 8 Marines.

KAB glide-bombs to Mykolaiv Oblast.

Flying to Tsentralne. A reconnaissance drone is operating in the area, and will film and adjust the strikes.

They are flying further to Mykolaiv City. 5 km away.

Explosions were heard in Mykolaiv City.

Another Su-34 will likely launch KAB glide-bombs at Mykolaiv shortly.

Edit: More KABs are flying to Mykolaiv city now

Russian Geran-4 jet-drones struck three Ukrainian radars and one S-300 surface-to-air missile launcher in Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Kyiv Oblasts.

Four Russian KAB glide-bomb strikes on the city of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast.

NASA FIRMS data indicates that a large fire broke out at the "Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant" following Ukrainian drone strikes.

The Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant specialises in the production of high-precision optoelectronic, thermal imaging, and radar systems

Inside a supermarket in Ternopil, western Ukraine 🤣🤣