Geolocation of recently released footage by Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense showing an AN/MPQ-50 Pulse Acquisition Radar (PAR) belonging to the I-HAWK (MIM-23B) air defense system.

C: 18.289459, 42.792009
S: https://x.com/modgovksa/status/2115049045890904074

• @GEOIMINT •

OPSEC level: Saudi

The IRGC attacked an oil tanker travelling southeast through the Persian Gulf with two projectiles.

Russians hacked the official Ukraine alert map today

Russia's 48-hour-long massive Geran drone attack on Ukraine has finally concluded.

Over 1,400 Geran-4/5 jet-drones and Geran-2 drones were used in total, attacking dozens of different towns and cities across 22 out of 24 regions (excluding Kherson Oblast due to the ceasefire). Of these 1,400 drones, around 1,000 Geran-2/Gerberas and 400 Geran-4/5s were used.

The main targets were electrical substations and railway infrastructure, as well as some airbases used by the Ukrainian Air Force. Widespread power outages occurred across large parts of Ukraine, including the cities of Dnipro and Kyiv, and the implementation of rolling blackouts has been intensified.

In the second half of the attack (the last 24 hours), explosions were heard in/near the following locations:

- Lviv City
- Hlyniany, Lviv Oblast
- Kremenets, Ternopil Oblast
- Dubno, Rivne Oblast
- Kostopil, Rivne Oblast
- Hoshcha, Rivne Oblast
- Rivne City
- Manevychi, Volyn Oblast
- Netishyn, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Slavuta, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Horodok, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Letychiv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Derazhnya, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Khmelnytskyi City
- Chernivtsi City
- Mohyliv-Podil's'kyi, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Turbiv, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Kozyatyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Lypovets, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Illintsi, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Vinnytsia City
- Chudniv, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Rudnya-Horodyshche, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Ozerne, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Korostyshiv, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Zhytomyr City
- Uman, Cherkasy Oblast
- Cherkasy City
- Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast
- Fastiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Bucha, Kyiv Oblast
- Irpin, Kyiv Oblast
- Brovary, Kyiv Oblast
- Kalynivka, Kyiv Oblast
- Multiple different districts of Kyiv City
- Vylkove, Odesa Oblast
- Usatove, Odesa Oblast
- Mayaky, Odesa Oblast
- Odesa City
- Dolyns'ka, Kirovohrad Oblast
- Baburka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Rozumivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Vilnyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Oril'ka, Kharkiv Oblast
- Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast
- Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast
- Rohan, Kharkiv Oblast
- Vasyshcheve, Kharkiv Oblast
- Kharkiv City
- Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast
- Hlobyne, Poltava Oblast
- Putyvl, Sumy Oblast
- Konotop, Sumy Oblast
- Shostka, Sumy Oblast
- Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast
- Nosivka, Chernihiv Oblast

The first half (24 hours) of the attack involved a little over 600 Geran-2/4/5 drones, and focused primarily on targeting energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as well as railway and energy infrastructure across Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, and Ternopil Oblast. There were also a large number of strikes on Kyiv and its surroundings, and heavy attacks on Sumy City and its surroundings. Southern Ukraine (Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts) were largely spared from attacks.

The second half (24 hours) of the attack involved around 700 Geran-2/4/5 drones, and continued to focus on energy and railway infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine, although strikes on Ternopil Oblast were swapped for heavier attacks on the neighbouring Rivne Oblast. Kyiv and its surroundings continued to see a lot of activity, although this decreased compared to the first half. Odesa Oblast was struck this time, and there was also more activity seen in Zaporizhzhia Oblast too. Strikes on energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts decreased compared to the first half.

In my opinion, this is a prelude to the upcoming combined missile and drone attack involving strategic aviation, which will likely occur sometime this week. It has helped exhaust Ukrainian air defence and aviation capabilities, and put further strain on the power grid, which will be hit even harder once the missiles start flying. I will make a separate post about the preparations for this upcoming missile attack in the near future.

(Note: The attached map shows only the strikes from the second half of the attack. You can find the map of the first half in the quoted post)

I do find it funny, though, that this massive attack involving over 1,400 long-range drones, hundreds of successful strikes, and almost every region of Ukraine hit was almost entirely ignored in the information space in favour for two Russian refineries being hit by a few Ukrainian drones each.

❗️The next Russian large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine involving strategic bombers is expected to take place in the next 48 hours:

A record number of Russian Tu-160M modernised strategic bombers are now equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles, and will take part in this upcoming attack. A 5th Tu-160M strategic bomber was equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Engels-2 Airbase yesterday, and subsequently flew back to Ukrainka Airbase in the evening.

Additionally, up to 10 Tu-95MS strategic bombers were stationed at Ukrainka Airbase. It's likely that not all of these are equipped with missiles, but they may all be airborne for the attack as some carry out training missions alongside the ones actually launching missiles. At least three of these 10 aircraft were redeployed to Olenya Airbase overnight, landing a short time ago. The rest are likely to follow during the day.

As for ground-launched missiles, Russia has been actively accumulating Iskander-M, Kn-23, and RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles; as well as Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, at launch sites in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Voronezh Oblast, Rostov Oblast, and Crimea.

What missiles could be used?

- 50-70 Kh-101 cruise missiles - Up to 20 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles - Up to 10 Kn-23 ballistic missiles - Several Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles - Several Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles - 8-24 Kalibr cruise missiles
- Several Iskander-K or Kh-59/69 cruise missiles - Several S8000 Banderol cruise missiles - Hundreds of Geran-2/4/5 and Gerbera drones.

Not all of these missiles listed above are expected to be used. These are just the maximums. It's possible that the attack will involve minimal ground-based missiles, and that they will be used in a separate attack days afterwards.

In my opinion, the Kh-101 cruise missiles and drones will target energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine, while any other missiles would target the eastern half of Ukraine as usual. Drones will likely be used to target energy, warehouse and railway infrastructure.

Additionally, the fact that Russia has waited until the end of the localised ceasefire in Kherson Oblast suggests that they may intend to use Kalibr cruise missiles, and have them fly over Kherson Oblast as they enter Ukrainian airspace. As a part of the earlier ceasefire, neither side could use the airspace over Kherson Oblast for missile and drone overflights, regardless of if they were targeting Kherson Oblast itself or not.

Due to changing light levels as we approach Winter, the attacks with strategic bombers will probably take place after 6am local time, as the Kh-101 cruise missiles require light for more effective guidance. This means that the attack may be split into two halves, with ground-launched and sea-launched missiles being used after midnight, and the air-launched missiles being used during the early morning hours as the sun rises.

The primary targets will probably be energy and railway infrastructure.

In my opinion, the attack will likely take place tonight, although this will become clearer closer to the time.