❗️Russia’s large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine will take place tonight.

5 Tu-160M strategic bombers have departed from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East and are flying west to their launch lines in western Vologda Oblast, which they are expected to reach in around 6 hours. It will take a little under 2 more hours after that for the missiles to enter Ukrainian airspace.

Communications between Olenya Airbase and strategic command and control in Moscow on combat frequencies have also been recorded. It’s expected that up to 10 Tu-95MS strategic bombers will depart from Olenya Airbase in around 4.5 hours from now. Not all of these aircraft will launch Kh-101 cruise missiles, as some will be conducting training missions alongside the ones actually launching missiles. They will probably conduct launch maneuvers at around the same time as the Tu-160s.

As I mentioned before, the highest threat is to the western regions of Ukraine, where energy infrastructure will likely be targeted by Kh-101 cruise missiles. This especially includes Rivne Oblast, Volyn Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast, and Lviv Oblast. It’s like that the eastern half of Ukraine will be targeted by ground-launched missiles (ballistics, Zircons, and Oniks) beforehand. Kalibr cruise missiles will also likely be launched from the Black Sea or Caspian Sea at some point.

The U.S. Air Force is carrying out new airstrikes against Iranian surface-to-air missile launchers on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier, repeated air defence activity was reported from the island, with the IRGC claiming that two U.S. MQM-170 and one MQ-9 "Reaper" drones were shot down. American airstrikes are probably targeting the same surface-to-air missile launchers used to target these drones.

Air defence activity is also reported at Omidiyeh Airbase in southwestern Iran.

This is not a resumption of the regional war btw.

That will happen after the midterms - in my opinion, later this month.

Three Russian Geran-5 K5-K jet-drones struck Cherkasy City a few minutes ago.

They impacted approximately in the area shown on the map.

The IRGC is attacking vessels in the Strait of Hormuz with anti-ship cruise missiles or drones.

Explosions were heard southwest of Qeshm Island.

Ahead of the missile attack, Russia has launched yet another large-scale attack on Ukraine using Geran-2 drones and Geran-4/5 jet-drones. Over 250 drones have been launched in the last 8 hours, over two-thirds of which were Geran-2 drones.

The primary target has been energy infrastructure, which will be hit even harder once the missiles start flying later tonight. Among the targets hit were the Dnіstrovska Hydroelectric Power Plant and Chernivtsi 330 kV electrical substation in Chernivtsi Oblast, as well as the Zhytomyr 330 kV substation - both in western Ukraine. Widespread power outages have affected both Zhytomyr and Chernivtsi Oblasts, with most of Zhytomyr City being left without electricity.

During this attack (which is still ongoing), explosions were heard in/near the following locations:

- Nadvirna, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast
- Kitsman, Chernivtsi Oblast
- Novodnistrovs'k, Chernivtsi Oblast
- Khmelnytskyi City
- Sharhorod, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Kryzhopil, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Vinnytsia City
- Tal'ne, Cherkasy Oblast
- Kaniv, Cherkasy Oblast
- Cherkasy City
- Kyiv City
- Pukhivka, Kyiv Oblast
- Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Hlevakha, Kyiv Oblast
- Luhyny, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Zhytomyr City
- Manevychi, Volyn Oblast
- Poltava City
- Shakhtarske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Troyandy, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Vilnyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Nyzy, Sumy Oblast
- Sumy City

According to available information, ballistic missiles and other ground launched systems will be used in 1-2 hours from now, approximately between 1:30-2:30am local time.

Up to 30 missiles (RM-48U, Iskander-M, Oniks-M, & Zircon) could be used in total. The highest threat is to Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, and Poltava Oblast.

There is also the possibility of up to 10 Kn-23 ballistic missiles being launched from near Liski, Voronezh Oblast, in around this same timeframe.

Currently, approximately 40 Geran-2/4/5 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

Sorry, got the timing wrong on the strategic bombers. The Tu-95MS are expected to take off from Olenya Airbase in around an hour.

Some of the Tu-95MS strategic bombers are already airborne from Olenya Airbase, having taken off a few minutes ago.

They are flying south to their launch lines in western Vologda Oblast, which they will reach in around 1.5 hours. The 5 Tu-160M strategic bombers are expected to reach these same launch lines at around the same time.

From there, it will take a little under 2 hours for the Kh-101 cruise missiles to enter Ukrainian airspace. Up to 70 missiles will be launched in waves towards Ukraine.

At least 6 Tu-95MS are airborne.

Approximate flight routes of the Russian Tu-95MS and Tu-160M strategic bombers airborne right now.

They will reach the launch lines in western Vologda Oblast in around 90 minutes, and launch 50-70 Kh-101 cruise missiles towards Ukraine (Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts) in several waves.

For the next hour, there is an increased threat of ground-launched missile strikes against Ukraine.

Russia may launch up to 30 Iskander-M and RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles; as well as Zircon hypersonic and Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles. Up to 10 Kn-23 ballistic missiles could also be launched alongside this.

Additionally, there is a possibility of 8-24 Kalibr cruise missiles being launched from either the Black Sea (Novorossiysk Naval base) or the Caspian Sea (Kaspiysk Naval Base) during this period, although they may be timed to enter Ukrainian airspace alongside the Kh-101 cruise missiles.