In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continued to expand their zone of control west of Zarichne, and have eliminated the salient recently formed there.

After outflanking Ukrainian strongpoints west of Zarichne from the north, Ukrainian forces began withdrawing to the west to prevent being encircled. The Russians have since captured the agricultural complex that served as one of Ukraine's main forward deployment points in this sector, and secured the rest of the surrounding forests, levelling the frontline to the west.

+ ~3.85 km² in favour of Russia.

Following reports of Hamas fighters opening fire on Israeli soldiers in Rafah and firing an anti-tank missile, the IDF has begun a series of airstrikes on targets across Gaza City and Rafah.

Explosions are currently sounding across the strip from the artillery shelling and airstrikes focusing on Gaza City. One airstrike targeted the courtyard of Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City; however no casualties were reported.

All those naive people when the war and genocide starts again will be so confused why the "peace president" couldn't stop it.

It's almost as if Trump's plan was terribly laid out and had very few guarantees for Hamas (let alone the other Palestinian factions and movements in Gaza).

I honestly think the goal was to make a peace plan that was borderline acceptable for Hamas, but just slightly too far outside of what they could feasibly agree too, in order to portray them as unwilling to end the war and rebuild some justification for the IDF to continue their operations.

Hamas actually accepting the deal surprised the US and Israel, so now they are relying on ceasefire violations to slowly swing back to a fighting stance.

This new round of attacks could only be temporary, but long-term the trend is obvious.

Today, in preparation for the next large-scale missile strike, 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to western Russia. 1 landed at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, and 3 landed at Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast.

Currently, there are 10 strategic bombers stationed near Ukraine - 13 if you include Diaghilev Airbase (Ryazan Oblast).

2 Tu-95MS strategic bombers have departed from Engels-2 Airbase and are redeploying to Olenya Airbase. They have been equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles and will take part in the next missile attack from Olenya.

Russian forces have captured the village of Dronivka, northern flank of Siversk, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~613.
Total land area: ~0.98 km².

Hamas denied responsibility for the attack on IDF soldiers in Rafah, southern Gaza, and emphasised its commitment to the ceasefire.

4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers landed at Olenya Airbase. They are all equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

Mutliple vessels of the Black Sea Fleet stationed at Novorossiysk Naval base, Krasnodar Krai, are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles.

Multiple OTRK installations have Iskander-M ballistic missiles ready to launch, especially from the north and northeastern directions.

2 MiG-31Ks are equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. Their usage in the next attack is likely, but not certain.

At least 4 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers stationed at Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, are equipped with Kh-22 cruise missiles. It is unclear if they will be used in the next attack.

1 Tu-95MS and 3 Tu-160s remain stationed at Engels-2 Airbase. Not all are equipped with missiles.

The next large-scale, combined missile attack on Ukraine is likely to take place tomorrow night. I will provide additional updates closer to the time.

I think we may be seeing the last days of the battle for Pokrovsk.

Get ready

Tonight, there is a high probability of a large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack being carried out on Ukraine. Here's what we know so far:

There are currently 7 Tu-95MS stationed at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast. 6-7 of these are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles and are expected to take part in any combat sorties.

At Engels-2 Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, there are 2-3 Tu-160 strategic bombers equipped with Kh-101s. They are likely to take part in any combat sorties. The Tu-95MS and 1 other Tu-160 stationed there are there for training purposes.

1 frigate of the "Admiral Makarov" type, 1 frigate of the "Admiral Essen" type, and 1 submarine of the "Varshavyanka" type are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, and stationed at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai. They are likely going to take part in any missile attacks.

3-4 MiG-31Ks stationed at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, are equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles. They may take part in any combat sorties. The 2 other MiG-31Ks equipped with missiles stationed at Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast, are not expected to take part.

At least four Iskander OTRK installations have received deliveries of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and/or Iskander-K cruise missiles. These are in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Voronezh Oblast, and Rostov Oblast. Their usage tonight is possible but not confirmed.

After weeks of accumulation, there are over 500 Geran-2, Geran-3, and Gerbera drones ready to launch from 10-11 different directions surrounding Ukraine.

The chances of a missile attack taking place tonight is not 100%, but it is likely (~75%).

So far, launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded from:

Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast (x2).
Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.
Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.

The first drones are entering Ukrainian airspace via Sumy, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~9 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

The situation in the Pokrovsk direction has reached a catastrophic point for Ukraine. Ukrainian formations in Myrnohrad, eastern Pokrovsk, and the surrounding villages are now operationally encircled.

Russian troops broke through to the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk, leaving only a 2km-wide corridor of open fields to escape encirclement. The coming days will be decisive.

A Russian flag was raised over the Pokrovsk plaque on the northwestern outskirts of the city. This is the same plaque that Zelensky visited around a year ago.

Activity on Russian combat-related strategic aviation frequencies is recorded. We will likely see departures of Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya Airbase to launch missiles in the near future.

Combat-related radio activity has resumed after a brief pause.

Update on Geran launches:

So far, 8 launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded. These are from:

Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast (x2).
Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast (x2).
Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.
Kacha Airbase, Crimea.
Cape Chauda, Crimea.

It's currently 9:46 pm in Kyiv. No departures of Tu-95MS have been recorded yet.