What appears to have been a Russian Kh-31P anti-radar missile just struck a target near the city of Merefa, Kharkiv Oblast, after being launched from Su-34/35 near the Luhansk-Belgorod border.

Two Russian Geran-2 drones struck a 150 kV electrical substation near the city of Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

⚡️🇮🇷🇺🇸🇱🇧 Al-Akhbar: Despite the U.S. naval blockade, Iranian commercial and oil tankers continue to enter and exit Iranian ports with only limited restrictions.

Tehran fears that extending the ceasefire without tangible results may give Washington time to build up its military forces and raise its demands.

Iran’s military remains on high alert for comprehensive defence.

A senior diplomatic source told Al‑Akhbar that Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz to the promised 15‑17 ships per day because Israel violated the Lebanon ceasefire, which was part of the Iran‑US truce.

Iran made clear that a new round of negotiations with the U.S. is conditional on Lebanon being back on the table. Iran informed its Lebanese allies of the truce before Trump’s call with Lebanese President Aoun.

@wfwitness

⚡️🇸🇾🇪🇺 Reuters: The European Union plans to deepen its engagement with Syria by relaunching formal political contacts and paving the way for closer economic and security ties.

The EU will fully resume its 1978 cooperation agreement with Syria and begin a High-Level Political Dialogue with the country’s transitional authorities on May 11.

The EU also said it would “reframe and adapt” its sanctions regime to maintain leverage while engaging with Syria’s leadership and targeting spoilers of the transition.

@wfwitness

The Western-backed Syria Project continues...

Ever since the Turkish-backed HTS-SNA rebel coalition overthrew Assad's government in December 2024, the US has abandoned the SDF, withdrawing from their military bases there and throwing their support behind the new Syrian Transitional Government. This is because the US, and the West in general, views the STG as stronger and more stable, with them being the only suitable option to rule Syria.

Syria being a western ally is extremely important to the US, obviously due to its strategic geographic location at the crossroads of the Middle East, but also to counter Russian influence in the region (which would likely to grow again once they win in Ukraine) and disrupt supply from Iran to Hezbollah, which is interesting timing considering the pressure being exerted on the Lebanese government to dismantle Hezbollah.

I expect that soon the SDF will complete its integration into the STG, and efforts at either integrating or destroying the Druze SMC group in Suweida will take place shortly afterwards. Unfortunately for the STG, attacking the SMC results in Israel immediately attacking them and expanding their buffer zone in southern Syria, so its more likely we will see attempts at integrating the SMC into the STG in order to eventually normalise ties with Israel. This is of course in the best interests of the US, as any confrontation between Israel and Turkiye could result in some complicated issues surrounding NATO article 5. Furthermore, Israel normalising ties with the STG would allow them to better focus on dismantling Hezbollah (possibly in coordination with the new US-aligned Lebanese government), which they can (and have already been) attack from their positions around Mount Hermon in Israeli-occupied southern Syria.

With Syria as a more stable western and Israel-aligned power, Lebanon largely united under a western-backed government following any dismantling of Hezbollah, and Turkish-Israel relations improved, the Iranian Axis of Resistance would be weakened even further, and we would see attention shift to Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. This appears to be the general plan of the Syria Project, but it remains to be seen if this would succeed. With the US-Israeli failure to achieve regime change in Iran, Iran will be able to retain significant influence over any actions and decisions that take place, which obviously complicates further progression of the project.

As a result of extensive Russian Geran-2 drone and Geran-3 jet-drone strikes today and overnight, The Chernihiv Thermal Power Plant has temporarily suspended all operations

An MQ-4C "Triton" reconnaissance drone of the U.S. Navy carried out a 12-hour reconnaissance flight off the coast of Cuba today, surveying large parts of the country before returning to the Jacksonville Naval Air Station in Florida.

A Ukrainian FPV drone of the 1st Centre of the Unmanned Systems Forces struck a Russian Pantsir-S1 medium-range surface-to-air missile system in the city of Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.

The trails of Russian Su-34s carrying out patrols near Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, are visible from southern Zaporizhzhia City for the first time.

Great article by AviVector on Russian Tu-160 strategic bomber usage.

https://x.com/avivector/status/2044844137032114451

Interesting developments have been taking place in Kharkiv Oblast over the last week, which should not be ignored:

Ukraine is moving additional forces out of the Kupyansk sector, and this time are sending them to the Vovchansk area in response to increased Russian advances across the international border. Ukrainian forces are also carrying out counterattacks in this area, with some small groups managing to re-enter the southeastern streets of Vovchansk itself.

Meanwhile, the large concentration of Ukrainian forces in the Kupyansk area that was formed to carry out the counterattacks from October 2025 onwards continues to dissipate, as various units (including assault ones) get redeployed to other parts of the frontline, such as the Pokrovs'ke direction to take part in the recent localised counteroffensive in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

This deprioritisation of Kupyansk by the Ukrainian command and what is essentially an abandonment of the plan to clear the last remaining parts of west bank Kupyansk gives Russia additional prospects to make important advances in the this direction. Already, they have firmly regained the initiative along the eastern bank of the Oskil River, capturing crucial fortified areas such as the village of Pishchane, parts of Petropavlivka, and the fortifications west of Stepova Novosilka. They have also resumed attempts at sending new forces to the western part of Kupyansk, which is becoming easier due to lower numbers of Ukrainian manpower in this sector from these redeployments.

Keep an eye on Kupyansk (and the large neighbouring town of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi), as we may soon see a full collapse of the incredible strong and robust Ukrainian defence east of the Oskil River, and a subsequent renewed Russian offensive on the main part of Kupyansk from multiple directions.

NAFO or some other troll group raided the channel and channel chat, as I'm sure you're all aware. I've made both private while I clear out the bots.

If you get false banned please DM me through channel DMs

I don't think NAFO realises that botting my channel for making an analysis post wont help Ukraine liberate Kupyansk.

People are attacking AMK because of the latest post , but I have received confirmation that the Russians have advanced west of Kupiansk. Furthermore, the videos that have emerged in the last few hours are recent.

The bots are mostly gone now, so I have made the channel public again. The chat will remain private for the time being, so if you aren't already a member you will have to make a join request that I or one of my mods will accept. If any other raids happen (which is likely), the channel will be made private again for a period of time.

Unfortunately there are a lot of immature people who don't like news that hurts their feelings or goes against the preferred narrative, so they resort to childish tactics like this in an attempt at getting my channel taken down.

If you were mistakenly banned during the bot purge, let me know in channel DMs and I will unban you.

Ukrainian sources report that Russia has begun deploying large amounts of their new recently-formed interceptor drone units to the frontline. Here, they are providing cover for assault and mechanised forces by shooting down Ukrainian heavy bomber drones and reconnaissance UAVs.

Here are the rules for the channel chat. I'm writing them here so they are easier for people to find:

The following is disallowed, and will result in a mute/ban:

- Spam
- Excessive insults
- Slurs (Most common slurs, as well as terms like Katsap, Hohol, etc). Mild words like Retard are not included in this.
- Targeted hate against any group (Russians, Ukrainians, ethnic groups, religions, sexualities, etc).
- Glorification of violence
- Self-promotion with the goal of growing. Posting or linking your - own work is allowed for purposes other than growing.
- Impersonation
- Uncensored gore
- Nudity of any form
- Support or justification of war crimes of any form, including stuff not covered by the Geneva conventions such as killing of mercenary POWs.
- Harassment, including outside the chat
- Illegal material
- Doxxing
- Trolling
- Rage-baiting
- MAGA
- Fascism
- Posting the Ted Postol video about Patriot systems

Mods may mute you for reasons not listed here too, so just use common sense and be a decent person. *Most* political ideologies are allowed, but because this channel is focused around very controversial political topics, stronger rules are necessary to keep things calm.

The IRGC announced that they have closed the Strait of Hormuz again, citing the ongoing US blockade.

UKMTO reports that two IRGC gunboats fired on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, 20 Nautical Miles northeast of Oman. The tanker and crew are both safe.

Earlier, the IRGC announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed again due to the ongoing US naval blockade.

NAFO tried another bot raid on the channel chat today, but unfortunately for them, all the bots were auto-banned upon joining. If you were mistaken as a bot, please let me know via channel DMs.

Keep wasting your money NAFO. Another strategic AMK victory.