44 days later, my account on Twitter is no longer shadow banned.

Unfortunately my reach there is still throttled, and has remained so since November 2025. But this change is better than nothing I guess. It also conveniently occurred right after I stopped focusing on the Middle East 😁

Guys, make sure to join the channel group chat if you want to comment under posts, as I've had to make commenting member-only due to the constant bot raids. In the comments you can click "send request" and I or one of the mods will accept it.

Iran's central headquarters announced that they will retaliate against the U.S. attack and subsequent seizure on an Iranian Oil Tanker earlier today.

Aerial activity involving fighter jets and refuelling tankers is reported over several parts of Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan.

(Likely unrelated to any Iranian retaliatory attack)

Photo currently circulating on social media which appears to show a soldier with the Israel Defense Force striking and destroying a statue of Jesus Christ on the cross using a sledgehammer during recent operations in the Christian town of Debel in Southern Lebanon.

We investigated ourselves and found no wrongdoing

Additional Israeli fighter jet activity over southern Syria.

The situation for Ukraine is seriously deteriorating in the Vovchansk area. Russian forces have managed to seize a significant number of positions along the international border and nearby areas, entering multiple villages, including the village of Okhrimivka which is actually south of the Vovcha River.

While Russia is yet to consolidate in a lot of these areas, if Ukraine doesn't begin large-scale clearing operations soon, they could lose much of their advantagenous forward positions near the international border, which puts areas previously in the tactical rear at significant risk, and would contribute to Russia's further development of an offensive towards Bilyi Kolodyaz and Velykyi Burluk.

Luckily for Ukraine, they redeployed multiple units from the Kupyansk area early and may have the forces necessary to clear critical areas. Some small-scale counterattacks have already begun in a couple of places. However, movement across the Vovcha River will be difficult. It remains to be seen whether they will be successful at preventing Russian consolidation across the northern bank of the River.

No big arrows yet but this is the vulnerable area

I also expect we will see increased pushes from Kupyansk in the general direction of Shevchenkove in the Summer, as well as advances towards Staryi Saltiv from the north. This is a very "remote" area for the AFU, where all logistics run through the same few cities, and is quite far-flung from places like Kharkiv City. It's what I've been warning about for a long time.