Explosion in Zaporizhzhia City

The Iskander-K cruise missile impacted somewhere here. This area was also targeted by Tornado-S rockets last week.

Approximate route of the Iskander-K cruise missile. It was launched from near Liski, Voronezh Oblast.

https://t.me/PubgWithoutSaving/887

Russian drone activity on Ukrainian logistics on the important Zaporizhzhia-Orikhiv highway in Komyshuvakha. No anti-drone nets have been installed on this stretch, if at all.

https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.636940&lng=35.636215&z=11&d=20563&c=1&l=0

The battle of Rai-Oleksandrivka has begun. This will be one of the most important battles for Spring 2026 as it paves the way for a further Russian advance to the outskirts of Slovyansk.

Currently, the first Russian soldiers have managed to enter the eastern-most houses of Rai-Oleksandrivka. However, the most important areas right now are on the flanks, where Russian progress has largely stalled.

Ukrainian forces are actively counterattacking on the southern (left) flank to the town, attempting to clear the villages of Lypivka, Nykyforivka, and Fedorivka Druha. Russia is trying to develop their offensive in the surrounding forested areas, and is utilising small groups of infiltrators along the Bakhmut - Slovyansk Highway up to the Siverskyi-Donets Canal.

On the northern (right) flank to the town, Russia firmly maintains the initiative, however is struggling to consolidate in the fields and forested areas south of Kryva Luka. Capturing Kryva Luka and the nearby tactical heights is crucial to supporting the assault on Rai-Oleksandrivka, as any stable Ukrainian positions being left along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, especially on the hills there, would threaten the entire Russian operation. However, due to recent successes in and around Kalenyky and Riznykivka, clearing operations in the fields surrounding Kryva Luka will now be less complicated.

Once Rai-Oleksandrivka falls, the path to the neighbouring city of Mykolaivka will be open. I expect we will see an intensification of attacks from the southern flank, utilising the tactical height ridgeline which the Siverskyi Donets Canal runs along all the way to Mykolaivka. Mykolaivka is effectively the "gateway" to Slovyansk itself.

Meanwhile, the neighbouring Lyman direction is also affecting this sector. Russian advances along the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River allows them to threaten fortified Ukrainian positions on the southern bank of the river that protect the northern (right) flank of Rai-Oleksandrivka. Ukraine is actively attempting to disrupt this by counterattacking east of Lyman and in and around Yampil-Ozerne.

UKMTO reports that another ship was attacked by the IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz, this time 8 nautical miles west of Iran. No damage or casualties are reported, and the vessel is currently stationary.

Unidentified missile from Belgorod to Kharkiv Oblast

Likely S-300 air defence working on Ukrainian UAVs

Around 30 minutes ago, another Russian cruise missile targeted Zaporizhzhia City. This time it was a Kh-59/69 cruise missile launched by a Su-35 north of Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The missile targeted something in the Sotsmisto District of the city, however the warhead failed to detonate upon impact.

Preparations for an upcoming large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine involving strategic aviation are underway.

Over the last 24 hours, 2 Tu-95MS strategic bombers were redeployed from Olenya Airbase to Engels-2 Airbase to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. 1 of these aircraft has since returned to Olenya Airbase after being equipped with missiles, where it will remain until the upcoming attack. The second one is still in the air right now, and will arrive at Engels-2 Airbase in the next couple of hours. We can expect additional redeployments and missile equipments in the far east to take place in the coming days too.

As I mentioned yesterday, there is a threat of an attack involving missiles not launched by Tu-95/160 bombers in the coming days, however as I stated in that post, there is a possibility that it will be combined with the next attack involving strategic aviation.

In addition to the Tu-95MS strategic bombers, after significant accumulation, Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Iskander-K cruise missiles have been delivered to various launch points surrounding Ukraine, including in Bryansk Oblast, Crimea, and Taganrog (Rostov Oblast). The scale of these deliveries is currently unknown, but it could be higher than usual.

Kalibr cruise missiles from either the Black Sea Fleet at Novorossiysk Naval Base (Krasnodar Krai), or Buyan-M corvettes at Kaspiysk Naval Base (Caspian Sea) are also likely to be used.

There is also a threat of Tu-22m3 strategic bombers from Olenya Airbase launching Kh-22/32 cruise missiles at the northern regions of Ukraine.

There is no information about potential usage of Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles or Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles as of now, but it is not ruled out.

Because it's unclear whether there will be two smaller attacks or one larger one, its difficult to put a more precise timeline for when the next attack will take place. But for now, we can say with decent confidence that it will take place anywhere from 12 hours to 5 days from now.

I keep seeing people ask me why I'm still Pro-Ukraine after being constantly harassed, doxxed, and insulted by other Pro-Ukrainians.

The reality is, those people aren't actually Pro-Ukraine. They don't give a shit about Ukraine or Ukrainians, and only care about how many Russians they get to see being killed on FPV drone kill-cams each day.

Do you ever wonder why these people (most of which aren't even Ukrainian) never post or talk about Ukrainian struggles with manpower and command issues and only ever amplify successes? It's because they would rather stay in their comfy little information echo-chamber where they cannot face realities. These people are NOT pro-Ukraine.

I've supported Ukraine since 2022, and haven't really changed much since then. Of course I know a lot more now compared to back then, but my opinions on the war and what I think Ukraine should do (tactically speaking) have ONLY adapted IN RESPONSE to changing realities. I separate my moral and analytical opinions so my judgement isn't clouded by emotion, which allows me to objectively analyse things and come to conclusions from there.

So while I personally haven't changed much (relative to how Ukraine is doing), these people who claim to support Ukraine HAVE changed since 2022, are now happy to continue seeing the destruction of entire generations of Ukrainians and their nation as a whole, just so they can hurt Russia a little more and see some more oil refineries go boom. That is NOT supporting Ukraine or Ukrainians.

Additionally, even if everyone (including true Pro-Ukrainians) hated me, I still wouldn't abandon my values. So with that being said, I hope this horrible war ends soon so all this death and destruction can come to an end. But unfortunately, what I want does not equal what will happen, and that's something most people seem to have failed to grasp.

The IRGC reports that their navy detained two container ships - the EPAMINODES and MSC-FRANCESCA - in the Strait of Hormuz, and transferred them to Iranian territorial waters.

They claim the ships - one of which is allegedly tied to Israel - were travelling without the necessary permits and were tampering with navigation systems.

Unidentified missile to Zaporizhzhia.

Kh-59/69 cruise missile from a Su-57 flying over southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

This was an R-37/77 air-to-air missile targeting Ukrainian tactical aircraft. Another one was launched, and an explosion was heard in the air following the first one.

A third attempt is being made now.

The EU has provisionally approved the 90 Billion Euro ($106 Billion USD) two-year military loan for Ukraine as well as the 20th EU sanctions package against Russia, with the agreement now awaiting confirmation.

Slovakia has decided not to block the aid package, with them, Hungary, and the Czech Republic being exempt from participating in the joint borrowing of money to lend to Ukraine. It's likely that the EU intends to use the 210 billion Euros of frozen Russian central bank assets for repayment.

This comes as Ukraine restarted oil pumping into Hungary and Slovakia, with the first oil expected to arrive by tomorrow.

This aid package is expected to cover around two-thirds of Ukraine's defence spending for the next two years. Ukraine will receive the first 45 Billion Euros in 2026, and the 45 Billion in 2027.

Hezbollah announced that in response to Israeli ceasefire violations, they carried out an attack on an Israeli artillery position in the town of Al-Bayada, southern Lebanon with a drone.

According to unconfirmed reports, about 25 military transport aircraft and aerial refuellers landed at Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv today.

In response to Russia's significantly intensified cross-border assault operations, Ukraine has redeployed elements of the 425th Assault Regiment "Skala" to the Krasnopillya direction of Sumy Oblast, likely either from the Pokrovs'ke direction or the Dobropillya direction.

In February 2026, 1-2 companies of the 253rd Assault Regiment "Arey" were redeployed for stabilising measures, however this task has become far too large for such a small force, especially since Russia has significantly expanded the width of their incursion zone.

Currently, forces of the 425th Assault Regiment "Skala" are counterattacking in the village of Taratutyne (which is entirely in the grey-zone), as well as in the forests north of the settlement. Their goal is to prevent the capture of the village by Russia and prevent Russian consolidation on the northern (right) flank.

Additionally, forces of the 253rd Assault Regiment "Arey" are carrying out smaller-scale counterattacks towards the forests south of Pokrovka.

The defence of this sector is largely being held by elements of the Ukrainian 105th, 116th, 119th, and 122nd Territorial Defence Brigades.