Explosion in Kharkiv City. Tornado-S rocket strike.

Another Tornado-S from Belgorod to Kharkiv

Another explosion in Kharkiv

3rd Tornado-S rocket to Kharkiv.

Edit: Another explosion in Kharkiv

4th rocket flying now.

Edit: impacted Ruska Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast

4 Tornado-S rockets were launched in total, from near the eastern outskirts of Belgorod City.

3 rockets impacted 2-3 separate targets in the Solonytsivka area (yellow square), while 1 other rocket impacted the Ruska Lozova area (green square).

New high-resolution satellite imagery shows that Russia has completed the construction of additional open-air storage facilities for Geran-2 drones at Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast.

These areas are used to store drones during launches, which take place from four different static launch pads situated adjacent to the storage facilities, allowing for more rapid launches during large-scale combined attacks on Ukraine.

Image credit

CBS News reports that Iran retains far more military capabilities than the US government has claimed.

According to them, citing US intelligence, Iran still retains around half of their ballistic missile and missile launcher stockpiles, as well as approximately 60% of the IRGC naval forces (primarily smaller, asymmetric boats) and two-thirds of their air force. They also reported that Iran's conventional navy (separate to the IRGC Navy) has been destroyed.

The status of Lebanon is weird.

Israel has significantly limited its strikes, and has entirely refrained from striking Beirut or the Beqaa, but still carries out occasional shelling and assassinations.

Hezbollah, while previously ignoring these ‘minor’ ceasefire violations, is now responding to these violations with attacks on Israeli forces in Lebanon.

@Middle_East_Spectator

An Israeli drone strike on the city of Beit Lahiya, Northern Gaza, has killed at least 5 Palestinians, including 3 children.

U.S. fighter jets are currently trying to shoot down drones over the city of Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan. These drones were likely launched by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.

At least 2 interceptions have taken place so far.

Edit: only one drone was launched. It was shot down around 60 km east of Erbil.

—❗️🇮🇷/🇺🇸 WATCH: The IRGC Navy has released footage of seizing the ‘MSC FRANCESCA’ and ‘EPAMINONDAS’ container ships in the Strait of Hormuz earlier today

@Middle_East_Spectator

Explosion in Vilnyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Iskander-M ballistic missile strike. It seemingly impacted north of the city.

Russia likely plans to carry out a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine in the next 36 hours. It will involve Tu-95MS and Tu-160M strategic bombers, as well as other types of missiles.

I’m still clarifying some details, so I will make a full post on it later.

Regarding the upcoming combined Russian missile and drone attack:

The attack is most likely going to take place tonight between 11pm and 7am, although its possible that it doesn't occur until Sunday. Right now, Russia is carrying out a large-scale Geran-2/Gerbera drone attack aimed at exhausting Ukrainian air defence prior to the upcoming attack.

Recorded movements:

- 1 Tu-95MS strategic bomber redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase in the far east to Engels-2 Airbase, where it was equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

- 2 Tu-95MS flew from Ukrainka Airbase to Olenya Airbase after being equipped with missiles.

- Following this, 3 Tu-95MS redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase to Olenya Airbase, while another 3 flew there from Ukrainka Airbase.

Thus, there are now ~10 Tu-95MS stationed at Olenya Airbase, of which at least 8 are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. Another 3 Tu-95MS are stationed at Engels-2 Airbase, of which at least 2 are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

There are reports of additional Tu-95MS redeployments to Engels-2 Airbase this morning, however as of now this is unconfirmed.

Other weapons expected to be used:

- It is likely that 2 Tu-160M strategic bombers from Ukrainka Airbase will be used in the upcoming attack. They are not expected to carry out redeployments and will likely use Ukrainka Airbase as their staging base.

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles will be used. Over the last week, deliveries of Iskander-Ms took place to Bryansk Oblast, Crimea, Taganrog (Rostov Oblast), and possibly Kursk Oblast.

- Iskander-K and/or Kh-59/69 cruise missiles will most likely be used.

- Kalibr cruise missiles will likely be used, from either the Black Sea Fleet at Novorossiysk Naval Base (Krasnodar Krai), or Buyan-M corvettes at Kaspiysk Naval Base (Caspian Sea).

- Kh-22/32 cruise missiles form Tu-22m3 strategic bombers stationed at Olenya Airbase *could* be used.

- There is still no reliable information about potential usage of Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles or Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles as of now, but it is not ruled out.

Potential targets:

Ukrainian intelligence mentioned Kyiv (especially western and southeastern suburbs), Cherkasy City, Dnipro City, and Lviv City as high risk while Russia was transporting ballistic missiles. It's unclear if these potential targets carry over into threats from strategic aviation. More recent mentions also include Kirovohrad Oblast.

Hezbollah announced that they carried out a total of 6 operations against Israel and the IDF yesterday, which they say were in response to Israeli ceasefire violations.

They carried out a small-arms attack on Israeli soldiers in Taybeh, targeted Israeli soldiers in Taybeh with an FPV drone, shot down an Israeli reconnaissance drone over the town of Majdal Zoun, targeted Israeli forces in Bint Jbeil with artillery shells, struck an Israeli military bulldozer with an FPV drone while it was demolishing buildings in the town of Rachaf, and targeted the Israeli settlement of Shtula with rockets.

The IDF carried out an airstrike on a rocket launcher in southern Lebanon, which they say was used to attack the settlement of Shtula, Northern Israel, earlier.

They also claimed to have struck a second launcher reportedly loaded with rockets, as well as multiple buildings reportedly used by Hezbollah. They stated that the attacks on the buildings used by Hezbollah was in response to Hezbollah's rocket fire towards northern Israel.