For the next 12 hours, there is an increased threat of a large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine.
The threat specifically involves Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles, and Geran-2/Gerbera drones.
During the combined missile attack on April 25, only ~13 Iskander-M ballistic missiles were used. Upwards of 24 were delivered to OTRK installations surrounding Ukraine prior to that attack. Taking into account additional deliveries over the last five days, there more than 20 missiles concentrated near the launch sites, a portion of which could be used today.
Additionally, 6 MiG-31K fighters are stationed at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, under their concrete bunkers. 3 of them carried out a training mission yesterday afternoon, while a fourth conducted a training mission yesterday evening. It is possible that they will be used to launch Kinzhals today.
Furthermore, according to unconfirmed information, upwards of 80 Geran-2/Gerbera drones have been launched from various launch positions surrounding Ukraine. Some of these launches have been confirmed, with around 25 new drones currently detected in Ukrainian airspace.
The usage of other missile types (such as Iskander-K and Kh-59/69 cruise missiles) is not ruled out, however there is currently no threat of Tu-95MS/160 strategic bombers being used.
As of now, it is not confirmed that an attack will take place, so I will continue to monitor and provide further updates as more information comes in.
The threat specifically involves Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles, and Geran-2/Gerbera drones.
During the combined missile attack on April 25, only ~13 Iskander-M ballistic missiles were used. Upwards of 24 were delivered to OTRK installations surrounding Ukraine prior to that attack. Taking into account additional deliveries over the last five days, there more than 20 missiles concentrated near the launch sites, a portion of which could be used today.
Additionally, 6 MiG-31K fighters are stationed at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, under their concrete bunkers. 3 of them carried out a training mission yesterday afternoon, while a fourth conducted a training mission yesterday evening. It is possible that they will be used to launch Kinzhals today.
Furthermore, according to unconfirmed information, upwards of 80 Geran-2/Gerbera drones have been launched from various launch positions surrounding Ukraine. Some of these launches have been confirmed, with around 25 new drones currently detected in Ukrainian airspace.
The usage of other missile types (such as Iskander-K and Kh-59/69 cruise missiles) is not ruled out, however there is currently no threat of Tu-95MS/160 strategic bombers being used.
As of now, it is not confirmed that an attack will take place, so I will continue to monitor and provide further updates as more information comes in.
Right now, the number of reported Geran-2/Gerbera drone launches (from Kursk, Smolensk, Bryansk, Rostov, and Oryol Oblasts) is ~170. Not all of these are confirmed, only around 30 new drones are detected.
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Yesterday, Ukrainian sea-drones struck two Russian patrol ships operating in the Kerch Strait.
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A Russian firefighter films the scale of damage at the Tuapse Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai following repeated Ukrainian drone strikes.
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The Permnefteorgsintez Oil Refinery in Perm Krai came under attack from Ukrainian drones for the second day in a row, resulting in the fire increasing in size.
Yesterday, the AVT-4 oil processing unit was hit, resulting in damage to the neighbouring atmospheric rectification column. Additionally, at least 3 oil tanks have been destroyed and 2 others damaged.
As a result of the attacks, educational institutions in Perm city have been temporarily closed.
This oil refinery is nearly 1,500 km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Yesterday, the AVT-4 oil processing unit was hit, resulting in damage to the neighbouring atmospheric rectification column. Additionally, at least 3 oil tanks have been destroyed and 2 others damaged.
As a result of the attacks, educational institutions in Perm city have been temporarily closed.
This oil refinery is nearly 1,500 km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Last night, Russia carried out another massive Geran-2 drone attack on Odesa Oblast.
At least 45 drones were used in total. ~25 attacked the city of Izmail and ~20 attacked Odesa City.
The primary target in Izmail was once again port infrastructure, as seen in the first photo. Warehouses and docks were damaged.
In Odesa multiple targets in the city were hit. High-rise residential buildings were also struck, as seen in the second video. No civilians were injured or killed.
At least 45 drones were used in total. ~25 attacked the city of Izmail and ~20 attacked Odesa City.
The primary target in Izmail was once again port infrastructure, as seen in the first photo. Warehouses and docks were damaged.
In Odesa multiple targets in the city were hit. High-rise residential buildings were also struck, as seen in the second video. No civilians were injured or killed.
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At least 50 more Geran-2/Gerbera entered Ukrainian airspace, mostly via Sumy Oblast. Most of the original ones were Gerbera decoy drones, and have since disappeared. Air defence is working in Kherson and Sumy Oblasts to thin out the groups right now, ahead of any missiles to follow.
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Ukrainian intelligence certainly seems to think there will be an attack today. The highest threat is for Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast. New drones are constantly entering Sumy Oblast, and more are expected to follow.
Nothing is certain yet, though, as they have been incorrect in the past.
Nothing is certain yet, though, as they have been incorrect in the past.
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AMK Mapping
The first groups of drones are beginning to turn west towards Kyiv Oblast. The general routes of the ~80 drones are shown on the map.
Most of the Gerans/Gerberas in Kherson Oblast have been shot down. Ukraine brought in new air defence units to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts recently.
Helicopters are also actively working in Kherson Oblast.
Helicopters are also actively working in Kherson Oblast.
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2 Tu-95MS are airborne from Olenya Airbase and 1 Tu-160M is airborne from Ukrainka Airbase. They are likely carrying out a redeployment to Engels-2 Airbase, however they may conduct simulated launch maneuvers along the way.
There is no recorded activity on Russian combat frequencies right now, so the probability of Kh-101 cruise missiles being launched is low (but not ruled out).
There is no recorded activity on Russian combat frequencies right now, so the probability of Kh-101 cruise missiles being launched is low (but not ruled out).
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The Tu-160M strategic bomber from Ukrainka Airbase is currently flying southeast over Rostov Oblast towards its launch lines in the Caspian Sea.
The 2 Tu-95MS are flying south from Olenya Airbase.
The 2 Tu-95MS are flying south from Olenya Airbase.
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~60 (!) Geran-2 drones are flying west to Starokostyantyniv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. The first ones are about 20 km away.
AMK Mapping
~60 (!) Geran-2 drones are flying west to Starokostyantyniv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. The first ones are about 20 km away.
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No combined missile and drone attack was carried out on Ukraine. However, more than 400 Geran-2/Gerbera drones, as well as a few Geran-4/5 jet-drones were used, attacking targets across western Ukraine.
Targets were struck in Rivne City, Ternopil city, Dubno (Rivne Oblast), and Zhytomyr City. The hardest hit was Ternopil, which was attacked by more than 60 drones, making it the largest attack on the city since the beginning of the war.
Targets hit include electrical substations, industrial buildings, and an oil depot. The attached video shows a strike on Ternopil City.
Targets were struck in Rivne City, Ternopil city, Dubno (Rivne Oblast), and Zhytomyr City. The hardest hit was Ternopil, which was attacked by more than 60 drones, making it the largest attack on the city since the beginning of the war.
Targets hit include electrical substations, industrial buildings, and an oil depot. The attached video shows a strike on Ternopil City.
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