Well, I can’t stay up all night monitoring this, but I’ll be with you all tomorrow.

While I probably won’t be able to post as much as usual tomorrow, I’ll keep an eye on this Oreshnik threat thing.

Goodnight!

No launch of Oreshnik IRBMs have been carried out yet, but the threat remains in place for tonight.

— 🇱🇧/🇸🇾/🇮🇱 NEW: In a meeting with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa urged Lebanon not to negotiate with Israel

He warned Salam of ‘repeating the same mistake as Syria’, which involved granting concessions without receiving guarantees and reciprocal compensation.

Al-Sharaa stated that Israel’s strategy is pushing you toward granting gradual concessions without providing any guarantees, while simultaneously keeping open margins that allow it to expand the scope of its future aggressions.

@Middle_East_Spectator

It only took Jolani 1.5 years to figure that out…

If he isn’t careful there might be a sudden coup in Damascus resulting in a coincidentally Pro-US and Pro-Israel Syrian president, before Jolani has a chance to consolidate power across Syria.

The Iranian Air Force carried out another patrol over western Iran today, near the border with Iraq.

It seems that they are intending to return to their nightly patrols which we saw during April and May.

According to my sources on the ground (ChatGPT) Ukraine has just achieved a decisive breakthrough at Kursk and will be in Moscow by tomorrow.

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In addition, Russian-controlled parts of Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk Oblasts, as well as the Taman Oil Terminal in Krasnodar Krai, are under attack.

The attached video shows attacks on Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Ukrainska Pravda reports:

The Ministry of Defense sets a goal for up to 50% of stormtrooper and infantry positions in the Ukrainian army to be held by foreigners.

Source: message from Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov

Direct speech: "We are opening the market for recruiting foreigners to strengthen combat units and save the lives of Ukrainian military personnel. Our goal is to fill up to 30–50% of stormtrooper and infantry positions with foreigners."

Following the localised collapse of Ukrainian defences in May that led to the current deteriorating situation in Kostyantynivka, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi dismissed the commanders of the 28th Mechanised Brigade and the 156th Mechanised Brigade.

According to @Thorkill65, the Commander of the 28th Brigade commanded the entire Kostyantynivka defence grouping, which includes all units currently fighting in the city.

On the other hand, the 156th brigade was responsible for holding the Illinivka area, which was where one of the 2 main breaches into Kostyantynivka occurred. Reportedly, this breach into the city occurred due to poorly organised reconnaissance drone operations and a lack of FPV drones allocated to the 156th brigade for strike operations. Additionally, the 156th reportedly had too many poorly trained soldiers that should've been assigned to older brigades, according to a company commander of the brigade.

Furthermore, the status of various positions and strongpoints in and around Kostyantynivka, as well as on neighbouring directions, is being checked, as it is suspected that yet another case of commanders lying to higher-ups about Ukraine holding certain areas taking place. This could explain why Deepstate's map is so behind in this sector.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive to save Lyman...

As many of you may have already seen, Ukrainian forces launched a series of coordinated counterattacks north of Lyman in the direction of the Zherebets River in Mid-May, in tandem with continued counterattacks southeast of Lyman.

The goal of these counterattacks appears to be to eliminate the Russian bridgehead west of the Nitrius River. This would alleviate pressure on Lyman from the north, re-secure Svyatohirsk as a logistical hub supplying the Drobysheve and Yarova fronts, push Russian artillery and drone operators away from the crossings over the southern section of the Oskil River, and lay the groundworks for further counterattacks east of the Nitrius River towards the main Russian defences on the tactical heights west of the Zherebets River.

The southern flank of Lyman being stabilised would in turn alleviate the threat to Slovyansk from the north. Together, the stabilisation of both the northern and southern flanks of Lyman would not only delay the capture of Lyman, but also decrease the intensity of Russian FPV drone strikes on the Slovyansk-Izyum Highway, which would help improve the difficult situation for Ukraine in the Rai-Oleksandrivka area east of Slovyansk. The reduction of strikes on the crossings over the southern Oskil River would help improve the situation in the Borova area north of Lyman.

Whether Ukraine will succeed in these counterattacks is currently unknown. They began this operation around 25 days ago, and have managed to recapture at least 35 km² of territory, while contesting (grey-zone) another ~33 km². Attacks are still ongoing, currently focused on capturing the fields south of Nove, consolidating in Lypove, and reaching Shandryholove and Zelena Dolnya from the north. Some limited counterattacks also occurred from the south in the area of Novoselivka.

Here's a zoomed out map showing the recent assault vectors from either side in comparison to the 4 dominant rivers in the region.

One thing I forgot to mention in the previous post that I talked about earlier this week is the recently intensified Russian infiltrations into large parts of Lyman, resulting in large parts of the city transitioning into grey-zones where both sides hold mixed and overlapping positions. This will likely affect the effectiveness of these coordinated Ukrainian counterattacks.

Russian Su-34s over the western Black Sea. They may launch cruise missiles and KABs at the Zatoka Bridge in Odesa Oblast.

Russian KAB glide-bombs struck Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast, this morning. Strong explosions were heard in the city.