The Ukrainian counteroffensive to save Lyman...

As many of you may have already seen, Ukrainian forces launched a series of coordinated counterattacks north of Lyman in the direction of the Zherebets River in Mid-May, in tandem with continued counterattacks southeast of Lyman.

The goal of these counterattacks appears to be to eliminate the Russian bridgehead west of the Nitrius River. This would alleviate pressure on Lyman from the north, re-secure Svyatohirsk as a logistical hub supplying the Drobysheve and Yarova fronts, push Russian artillery and drone operators away from the crossings over the southern section of the Oskil River, and lay the groundworks for further counterattacks east of the Nitrius River towards the main Russian defences on the tactical heights west of the Zherebets River.

The southern flank of Lyman being stabilised would in turn alleviate the threat to Slovyansk from the north. Together, the stabilisation of both the northern and southern flanks of Lyman would not only delay the capture of Lyman, but also decrease the intensity of Russian FPV drone strikes on the Slovyansk-Izyum Highway, which would help improve the difficult situation for Ukraine in the Rai-Oleksandrivka area east of Slovyansk. The reduction of strikes on the crossings over the southern Oskil River would help improve the situation in the Borova area north of Lyman.

Whether Ukraine will succeed in these counterattacks is currently unknown. They began this operation around 25 days ago, and have managed to recapture at least 35 km² of territory, while contesting (grey-zone) another ~33 km². Attacks are still ongoing, currently focused on capturing the fields south of Nove, consolidating in Lypove, and reaching Shandryholove and Zelena Dolnya from the north. Some limited counterattacks also occurred from the south in the area of Novoselivka.

Here's a zoomed out map showing the recent assault vectors from either side in comparison to the 4 dominant rivers in the region.

One thing I forgot to mention in the previous post that I talked about earlier this week is the recently intensified Russian infiltrations into large parts of Lyman, resulting in large parts of the city transitioning into grey-zones where both sides hold mixed and overlapping positions. This will likely affect the effectiveness of these coordinated Ukrainian counterattacks.

Russian Su-34s over the western Black Sea. They may launch cruise missiles and KABs at the Zatoka Bridge in Odesa Oblast.

Russian KAB glide-bombs struck Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast, this morning. Strong explosions were heard in the city.