(Part two) Ukrainian advances:

North of Lyman, Ukrainian forces intensified their assault operations, making significant progress in coordination with the main thrust from the north, with the goal of eliminating the Russian bridgehead west of the Nitrius River.

Ukrainian forces cleared the rest of the forest south of Drobysheve from Russian infiltrators and recaptured positions in the centre of the town. From there, they are now advancing northeast along the road to Stavky, while infiltrating towards Russian positions in the gulley west of Kolodyazi. West of the Nitrius River, assault operations also continued in the southern part of Novoselivka.

To the east, the Ukrainians linked up with their forces east of Stavky by recapturing some treeline positions, which allowed them to improve their positions in the forest plantations northwest of Zarichne. Meanwhile, the earlier Ukrainian infiltrations into northern Zarichne were eliminated, with Russian forces managing to clear the northwestern streets of the village.

On the northern flank, Ukrainian forces achieved a localised breakthrough over the past month, advancing south along the eastern bank of the Nitrius River towards Shandryholove. They were also able to clear the northwestern and eastern parts of Karpivka, re-establishing full control over the settlement, before breaking through east and uphill along several parallel forested gullies, recapturing treeline positions at the summit of the tactical heights east of the Nitrius River.

With a solid line of positions on the high ground now secured, the Ukrainians went on to penetrate even deeper into Russian-controlled territory, advancing downhill to the gulley to the east, where they entered the village of Lypove and the surrounding forests, while other forces secured most of the rest of southern Ridkodub on the left flank of this advance. From here, Ukrainian forces are launching assaults east by bypassing Nove from the south, and south to the northern outskirts of Zelena Dolnya. Some soldiers were able to enter the western part of Nove.

To the northeast, following the earlier failed mechanised assault, Ukrainian forces cleared the fields south of Novyi Myr, before pushing southeast to the rear of Nove, which they are currently trying to encircle in coordination with the assaults south of the village. Other assault groups are pushing even further east through the fields between Novomykhailivka and Katerynivka, and are attempting to capture a series of forested areas just west of the regional border with Luhansk Oblast.

+ ~45.46 km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~14.93 km² in favour of Russia.

(Part one is above)

Here's a closer-up view of the approximate situation in Lyman, showing the current Russian infiltration routes.

Right now, Russian soliders are operating within the city centre and most other districts of Lyman, and have established stable control over several blocks in the northern suburbs.

I warned about these increased Russian infiltrations a little over a week ago, and since then the situation for Ukraine has rapidly become critical. We may be witnessing a repeat of Kostyantynivka unfold, but it remains unclear as to how much Russia will be able to consolidate in these new areas.

Here's a closer-up view of the approximate situation north of Lyman, where Ukrainian forces are continuing their counterattacks aimed at eliminating the Russian bridgehead west of the Nitrius River.

Fierce battles continue for the areas of Zelena Dolnya, Nove, Lypove, Katerynivka, Shandryholove, Ridkodub, and Novomykhailivka. Because of these recent advances, this Russian bridgehead is now at serious risk of being cut off, especially considering that Russia is concentrating most of its assault forces to capture Lyman itself.

However, if Lyman falls before Ukraine can cut off the bridgehead, Russia may be able to advance north to rear of the Ukrainian forces who are attacking the salient from the south, in order to secure the bridgehead.

This is why I call it the "Russian gamble in Lyman".

Yet every time it turns out that the so-called "rumours" I map off are true, and then everyone forgets that they ever accused me of lying in the first place.

Dobropillya, Kupyansk, Pokrovs'ke, Stepnohirsk, and now Lyman. All areas where Ukraine counterattacked, people claimed I was lying or hyping, and then it turned out I was right. Pro-Ukrainians do the same thing when I report on Kostyantynivka, Sumy, Vovchansk, and Pokrovsk.

But let's be honest, people like this didn't stop paying attention to me because I was "caught spreading rumours". You stopped paying attention because my reports didn't reflect the narrative that you have bought into about Ukrainian counterattack capabilities and Russian offensive progress.

This kind of stuff is exactly what NAFO has done for the last 4 years, but we now get to see it from both sides 😁

Also, yes, for those wondering, Ukraine is doing another OPSEC operation for their counterattacks north of Lyman, just like what they did with their localised counteroffensive near Pokrovs'ke in February-March 2026.

Once Ukraine has consolidated a lot of their progress, we will see changes made on Deepstate, and some new "unexpected" geolocations come out as the release of footage is slowly authorised. You will also see Russian sources notice these geolocations, and map a "sudden 8 km Ukrainian breakthrough," when in reality, these gains occurred over several weeks.

Luckily, through shreds of information, satellite imagery, and other data, I have been able to make a fairly accurately map of what has occurred so far. I am very confident with the accuracy of my map in this sector.

One of the reasons why it took me a month to post this update on Lyman is because I spent so long verifying the extent, nature, and level of success of these Ukrainian counterattack, which is always more difficult when the Ukrainian command is trying to actively conceal the presence of the counterattacks, especially with how complicated the "frontline" is nowadays.

Maksym Lavrynenko, the owner of Ukraine's largest Telegram channel network "Truexa" announced that he was tracked down by 5 members of the TCC (territorial recruitment) on the personal orders of Ukrainian Defence Minister Fedorov, after attempting to investigate corruption in Ukraine's defence sector.

He accused the Ukrainian government of trying to silence them on a story that could become "one of the biggest corruption scandals since the beginning of the war".

Maksym Lavrynenko's Truexa network is also well known for being the largest publisher of videos of Russian strikes, and in the past has been accused of leaking air defence positions.

Additionally, in 2023, one of the largest Russian bloggers Rybar accidentally leaked his Telegram DMs during a livestream, which showed his most recent message being from Lavrynenko, who was conversating with Rybar in a friendly manner about the ongoing Ukrainian summer counteroffensive.

Personally, I'm surprised he wasn't apprehended sooner. I doubt he has any ill intentions towards Ukraine with these controversies, but they certainly provide the Ukrainian government with "justification" for an arrest.

Keep in mind from a symbolic perspective. that these recent advances put the “Holy Mountain” or «Святые Горы» national park well and truly in reach for Russia.

This will be a large morale boost for Russian forces, to capture such a religiously significant area.

This forest is completely destroyed though. Sentinel imagery shows it fully blackened out now.

— Note that Iran has not made any commitment not to enrich uranium. The absence of this commitment from the MoU is very telling.

In fact, Trump made several comments today that implied Iran would be allowed to continue enrichment at low levels (likely 3.67% for civilian use).

That would be extremely embarassing for the United States, considering that the official position during the Araqchi-Witkoff negotiations was ‘zero enrichment’ for 10-20 years.

@Middle_East_Spectator

The IDF announced that a sergeant of the 36th Division was killed by a recent Hezbollah strike in southern Lebanon. Another 7 soldiers (4 reserve soldiers, 1 reserve officer, 1 non-commissioned officer, and 1 officer) were moderately and lightly injured.

In a separate statement, the IDF announced that 5 soldiers were injured (1 seriously, 2 moderately, 2 lightly) from a Hezbollah FPV drone strike in southern Lebanon.

The IDF claims that both of these strikes occurred after the beginning of the new ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah has not issued any statements on these attacks.

This brings the confirmed IDF death toll since the beginning of their invasion of Lebanon to 31.

The IDF released footage showing an airstrike on a loaded Hezbollah rocket launcher in southern Lebanon, which they say targeted IDF positions with several rockets.

Additionally, in a separate statement, the IDF claims that a Hezbollah drone was detected over southern Lebanon near IDF positions, and that an interceptor missile was launched from northern Israel towards it.

Hezbollah has not issued any statements claiming to have launched rockets or drones at Israeli forces.

Overnight, Russia carried out a series of missile strikes on Kyiv and Poltava.

4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations northwest of Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast, targeted something in the eastern part of Kyiv. 1 missile was intercepted by Patriot systems, which in total launched at least 7 interceptors during the attack.

4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles equipped with cluster warheads launched from near Novovoronezh, Voronezh Oblast, impacted the Ukrgazprombud facility on the northeastern outskirts of Poltava City, which is the construction and installation branch of Ukrtransgaz, and is involved in the construction, major repairs, and maintenance of main gas pipelines and gas transportation system facilities. These strikes also damaged the nearby "Promuzel" 110 kV electrical substation and "Zaturino" 110 kV electrical substation.

Additionally, 4 Banderol jet drones were launched from Kursk and Bryansk Oblast. 2 drones impacted the same target in eastern Kyiv that the Iskanders struck. 1 other targeted something northeast of Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast, and a 4th was likely shot down south of Kyiv.

On the map:
Red = Iskander-M flight routes.
Orange = Banderol jet drone flight routes.

The moment of 2 Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile impacts in southeastern Kyiv.

A Patriot interceptor missile is seen failing to intercept a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile. The Iskander-M impacts just next to where the Patriot interceptor self destructs.