High threat of Iskander-M ballistic missile launched from Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

Iskander-M on Barvinkove, Kharkiv Oblast

Flying further to Savyntsi/Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast

2 missiles

Both missiles disappeared near Barvinkove, Kharkiv Oblast.

According to my information from both Russian and Ukrainian sources, there is a possibility of Russia carrying out a cross-border incursion from Bryansk Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast.

A large Russian build-up in Bryansk Oblast has been observed recently, with a mix of motorised and airborne units, as well as infrastructure necessary to support a cross-border operation. I can't go into details about the specific equipment being brought here, or the potential timeframes for such an operation (for obvious reasons), but more information may become available soon.

The Ukrainian command knows about this build-up, and is responding with various pre-emptive measures. Again, I can't go into specific details, but what can be said is that they appear to be preparing for an operation to take place at any point from now to the end of 2026. What can be said is that there are certain units that are being held in this general area specifically for countering any cross-border incursions - units that could be sent to other parts of the frontline.

In my opinion, any cross-border operation would be limited, and aimed mostly at drawing Ukrainian forces away from the east, overextending their limited manpower to create the conditions for additional advances in the east. Similar to what has been seen in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts for the last 2+years.

Note: This information comes from Russian and Ukrainian sources who I have spoken to. Both have given me permission to post this. Details which could be used by either Russia or Ukraine for targeting one another have been omitted. Everything mentioned here is already known by each side. Arrows shown on the map are illustrative.

UMPK-5 jet-powered glide-bomb to Kryvyi Rih

Approaching Apostolove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Flying further to Kryvyi Rih.

Explosions in Kryvyi Rih

Oreshnik IRBM threat from Kapustin Yar, Astrakhan Obalst

Sirens in all regions of Ukraine

Also Iskander-M threat from Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

NOTE: The Oreshnik IRBM CANNOT be detected by current Ukrainian radars.

If it is launched, it will only be detected on arrival.

Most likely, S-500 air defence systems are being tested at Kapustin Yar Testing Ground, which triggered an Oreshnik threat.

No threat to Ukraine.

S-500 missiles were launched as a part of a training exercise.

Scheduled launches of S-500 air defence systems are expected to occur at Kapustin Yar Testing Ground, Astrakhan Oblast, until August 27.

During this time, additional Oreshnik IRBM threats may be issued, with sirens sounding in all regions of Ukraine.