NOTE: The Oreshnik IRBM CANNOT be detected by current Ukrainian radars.
If it is launched, it will only be detected on arrival.
If it is launched, it will only be detected on arrival.
Most likely, S-500 air defence systems are being tested at Kapustin Yar Testing Ground, which triggered an Oreshnik threat.
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No threat to Ukraine.
S-500 missiles were launched as a part of a training exercise.
S-500 missiles were launched as a part of a training exercise.
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Scheduled launches of S-500 air defence systems are expected to occur at Kapustin Yar Testing Ground, Astrakhan Oblast, until August 27.
During this time, additional Oreshnik IRBM threats may be issued, with sirens sounding in all regions of Ukraine.
During this time, additional Oreshnik IRBM threats may be issued, with sirens sounding in all regions of Ukraine.
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AMK Mapping
There is a high threat of a large-scale Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv from August 25 onwards. There will probably be no attack tonight.
Regarding the potential Russian ballistic missile attack on Ukraine that may take place tonight:
The highest threat is to the western, southwestern, northwestern, and southeastern districts of Kyiv, specifically the zones shown on the map. Other areas of the city may also be targeted. It's likely that military factories will be hit here.
In Kyiv Oblast, the highest threat is to Boryspil and areas west of Kyiv in the area of Vyshneve and Sviatopetrivske, where logistical warehouses may be hit.
Elsewhere in Ukraine, there is a threat to the cities of Poltava, Cherkasy, and Kremenchuk. In Kremenchuk, Russia may strike the oil refinery.
Between 20 and 30 Iskander-M ballistic missiles are expected to be used. Between 2 and 8 Kn-23 ballistic missiles *may* be launched. Between 6 and 12 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles are expected to be used. Launches will likely occur from Bryansk Oblast (Klintsy & Pochep), Kursk Oblast (Manturovo & Zheleznogorsk), Voronezh Oblast (Liski), and Rostov Oblast (Millerovo).
If the attack does indeed take place tonight, launches will presumably occur anywhere between 11:30pm and 2:30am.
The aforementioned information is preliminary and approximate. I plan to give another update in the morning after I get some sleep.
The highest threat is to the western, southwestern, northwestern, and southeastern districts of Kyiv, specifically the zones shown on the map. Other areas of the city may also be targeted. It's likely that military factories will be hit here.
In Kyiv Oblast, the highest threat is to Boryspil and areas west of Kyiv in the area of Vyshneve and Sviatopetrivske, where logistical warehouses may be hit.
Elsewhere in Ukraine, there is a threat to the cities of Poltava, Cherkasy, and Kremenchuk. In Kremenchuk, Russia may strike the oil refinery.
Between 20 and 30 Iskander-M ballistic missiles are expected to be used. Between 2 and 8 Kn-23 ballistic missiles *may* be launched. Between 6 and 12 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles are expected to be used. Launches will likely occur from Bryansk Oblast (Klintsy & Pochep), Kursk Oblast (Manturovo & Zheleznogorsk), Voronezh Oblast (Liski), and Rostov Oblast (Millerovo).
If the attack does indeed take place tonight, launches will presumably occur anywhere between 11:30pm and 2:30am.
The aforementioned information is preliminary and approximate. I plan to give another update in the morning after I get some sleep.
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Ahead of the upcoming ballistic missile attack on Kyiv, Zelensky announced that Ukraine has received a small batch of Patriot interceptor missiles.
AIM air-to-air missiles and Crotale short-range surface-to-air missile systems were also reportedly delivered in a new military aid package.
AIM air-to-air missiles and Crotale short-range surface-to-air missile systems were also reportedly delivered in a new military aid package.
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Forwarded from Playfra - Maps & Analyses
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkBnIxxdcSg
Foreign volunteers of Ukraine's 23rd Assault Regiment of the Corps "Khartiia" recaptured the blue area southwest of Dvorichna: 2 forests and the northern part of Zapadne, for a total of 7.5 km².
At the appropriate time, more will follow.
Work loves silence...
Foreign volunteers of Ukraine's 23rd Assault Regiment of the Corps "Khartiia" recaptured the blue area southwest of Dvorichna: 2 forests and the northern part of Zapadne, for a total of 7.5 km².
At the appropriate time, more will follow.
Work loves silence...
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Playfra - Maps & Analyses
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkBnIxxdcSg Foreign volunteers of Ukraine's 23rd Assault Regiment of the Corps "Khartiia" recaptured the blue area southwest of Dvorichna: 2 forests and the northern part of Zapadne, for a total of 7.5 km². At the appropriate…
These limited Ukrainian counterattacks north of Kupyansk occurred around a month ago, which is when I reported on them.
Deepstate has only updated their map now due to OPSEC.
Deepstate has only updated their map now due to OPSEC.
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It’s 2am here in New Zealand, and I’m thinking back to February 2024 when I made the decision of fully committing to reporting on the Ukraine war. At the time I was 17 years old doing geolocations for OSINTers, completely unknown in the information space, and had about 50 followers on Twitter.
2.5 years later, with over 225,000 followers and nearly 1 billion cumulative views across two platforms, I wonder how different things could’ve been for me if I chose not to pursue this path. It has been a focus for me ever since, with several thousand hours poured into my work.
It’s been incredible so far, and I’ve met so many amazing people. I only wish it was on a more positive topic. It’s been an honor to be able to post about this war to such a great audience and community, and I hope to continue well into the future. Although, the ideal outcome would be this horrible war ending as soon as possible.
A huge thanks to everyone who has supported me along the way, especially @kalibrated who helped me reach my first 1,000 followers at the beginning, which allowed me to grow so much further from there.
I am beyond grateful, and so incredibly lucky to be in this position.
2.5 years later, with over 225,000 followers and nearly 1 billion cumulative views across two platforms, I wonder how different things could’ve been for me if I chose not to pursue this path. It has been a focus for me ever since, with several thousand hours poured into my work.
It’s been incredible so far, and I’ve met so many amazing people. I only wish it was on a more positive topic. It’s been an honor to be able to post about this war to such a great audience and community, and I hope to continue well into the future. Although, the ideal outcome would be this horrible war ending as soon as possible.
A huge thanks to everyone who has supported me along the way, especially @kalibrated who helped me reach my first 1,000 followers at the beginning, which allowed me to grow so much further from there.
I am beyond grateful, and so incredibly lucky to be in this position.
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AMK Mapping
Iskander-M threat from Bryansk and Taganrog
High threat to Kyiv and Kremenchuk
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The threat from Bryansk is likely due to Russian S-300 air defence activity against Ukrainian drones.
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