Multiple Ukrainian long-range drones struck the Slavneft-YANOS Oil Refinery in the city of Yaroslavl this morning, resulting in at least two large fires breaking out.

This has been the 8th attack on the Slavneft-YANOS so far in 2026.

As I mentioned two days ago, there is a high threat of Russia carrying out another large-scale ballistic missile attack on Kyiv, specifically for tonight between 11:30pm and 3:30am local time.

Russia's smaller attack on Kyiv two days ago only utilised modified S-400 missiles, which were used to deplete the newly-delivered Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles. 9 PAC-3 missiles were launched during that attack (shooting down 7/8 of the missiles), out of the "small" batch that Zelensky reported was delivered. Now Russia has the ability to carry out a larger attack with a much higher impact rate.

As of now, Russia has around 30-35 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and up to 12 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles ready for use in Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov Oblasts. Kn-23 ballistic missiles may also be launched from Voronezh Oblast, although there is no information about specific numbers for them. It is not known if Russia intends to launch all of these missiles in one attack, or split them up into two more medium-sized attacks. Presumably, S8000 Banderol cruise missiles and Geran-4 jet-drones will also be involved.

The highest threat is to the southeastern, eastern, southern, southwestern, and northwestern parts of Kyiv, as well as areas southwest and northeast of the city, and the cities of Boryspil and Brovary. Other regions being targeted is also not ruled out, although there is no specific up-to-date information regarding this.

The attached map shows the areas of Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast at the highest risk, based on recent Russian reconnaissance drone activity, previous targeting patterns, and other information. Although, in general, any part of the city could be struck.

Zelensky claims that a Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber has struck by an SBU long-range drone at Engels-2 Airbase today.

An attack on the airbase was observed overnight, although without any visually confirmed impacts. We will probably see high-resolution satellite imagery emerge soon to confirm whether this claim is true or not.

If true, this would be the second Tu-95MS damaged/destroyed in about a month and a half, with one previously being critically damaged during an attack on July 16.

On August 26, around a day before the Ukrainian drone attack, at least 3 Tu-160M and 1 Tu-95MS strategic bombers were visible at Engels-2 Airbase on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery.

The Tu-95MS was seen on the runway, likely either returning from or starting a training mission when the satellite image was taken. All the other Tu-95MS which are used for missile attacks on Ukraine were not present at the time of the attack, and were instead either stationary at Olenya Airbase or being equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukrainka Airbase.

Russian Geran-2 drones and Geran-4 jet-drones targeted several more valuable Ukrainian targets, including:

- The CHP-6 Combined Heat and Power Plant in Kyiv (2 strikes);
- A grain elevator;
- 5 logistics centres;
- A warehouse facility;
- A (claimed) technical maintenance and repair point for the Ukrainian military;
- 2 electrical substations;
- 2 warehouses reportedly storing drones;
- A petrol station.

If a ballistic missile attack on Kyiv does indeed take place tonight, launches will occur anywhere from 1 hour to 5 hours from now.

Reminder:

Russia has allocated around 25-35 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 8-12 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, and an unknown number of Kn-23 ballistic missiles at their launch sites in Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, and Rostov Oblasts for this next attack.

Presumably all will target Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast, although other regions being targeted is not ruled out.

NASA FIRMS data shows large fires burning at at least 4 different logistics warehouses southwest of Kyiv following two days of Russian Geran-4 jet-drone strikes.

@Exilenova_plus released high-resolution satellite imagery of the Tu-95MS strategic bomber struck by a Ukrainian drone last night.

The aircraft was seen sitting on the same runway, likely either returning from or going to a training mission. It was situated around 80 metres from where I geolocated it on Sentinel-2 imagery dated August 26 (2 days prior).

As I mentioned in my previous post, this Tu-95MS is not currently used by Russia for launching Kh-101 cruise missiles at Ukraine, and instead is a trainer aircraft for young crews. It's likely that it replaced the previous trainer Tu-95MS which received critical damage from the Ukrainian drone strike on July 16. However, this time, the aircraft received only light damage to one wing, and will presumably be repaired to return to service.

Coordinates from Exilenova imagery: 51.473589, 46.202989