Footage showing the impact of a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile equipped with a cluster warhead in Kyiv.

Footage showing the impact of a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile equipped with a cluster warhead near Boryspil Airport, Kyiv Oblast.

Damage to a residential building in Boryspil, Kyiv Oblast, following the large-scale Russian missile attack.

The crater looks too small to be an Iskander or Zircon strike, so it's likely either an air defence missile malfunctioning, an intercepted drone or missile falling, or a Geran-4/S-400 strike.

Additional footage from the damaged residential building in Boryspil, Kyiv Oblast.

Judging by the blast wave, it's more likely that this was an RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missile strike, but we would need more footage during the daytime to say for certain.

Last night, Russia carried out one of their largest attacks on Odesa Oblast since the beginning of the war.

The following was launched:

~20 S8000 Banderol cruise missiles;
~10 KAB glide-bombs;
~2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles;
~76 Geran-2 drones;
~7 Geran-4 jet-drones.

Approximately 60 Geran-2 drones attacked port infrastructure and other targets throughout southern Odesa Oblast, including in the city of Izmail.

The rest of the missiles, drones, and KABs targeted Chornomorsk and Odesa Ports; the Odesa Thermal Power Plant; electrical substations, and various other targets in the region.

Ukraine recently deployed new surface-to-air missile systems to Odesa Oblast, allowing them to achieve a much higher interception rate. At least 8 KABs and 12 Banderols were shot down, while the rest impacted their targets. The interception rate against the drones is currently unknown.

In addition to this attack on Odesa Oblast, a massive attack was carried out on Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast using approximately 34 missiles of different types (~22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistics; ~8 Kalibrs; 4 Zircons), and Geran-4 jet-drones, of which only 2-3 Iskander-Ms and ~3 Kalibrs were shot down.

Map showing the approximate flight routes of the missiles used in tonight's Russian combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

At least 22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, 20 S-8000 Banderol cruise missiles, 8 Kalibr cruise missiles, 4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, and 2 Kh-31PD anti-radar missiles were used. 10 KAB glide-bombs also targeted Odesa Oblast.

Approximately 12 Banderols, 3 Kalibrs, and 2-3 Iskander-M/S-400s were shot down by Ukrainian air defence.

I will write up a full summary of this attack once I can identify the targets which were hit.

Note: the map does not show the flight routes of the S8000 Banderol cruise missiles.

New video with AMK mapping is now up!

https://youtu.be/HtrbAh6irxs?is=H32fr4i1pRMAoHXi

Did another podcast episode with Scott. Go check it out if you are interested.

2 Banderol cruise missiles are flying to Odesa Port.

Air defence is trying to shoot it down

Explosion in Odesa

Edit: this was an interception

Second Banderol is approaching

Another explosion in Odesa. This one impacted.

NASA FIRMS data indicates that large fires are burning throughout the Druzhkivka and Raiske areas as a result of increased Russian artillery shelling and KAB glide-bomb strikes over the last 48 hours.

During the last two ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, Ukraine launched at least 18 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, out of the "small package" of interceptors Zelensky said were delivered.

During the first attack, Ukraine launched 9 Patriots, intercepting 7 RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles. During the second attack, another 9 Patriots were launched, intercepting ~2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (one of the Patriot missiles malfunctioned after being launched).

Assuming the "small package" of Patriot interceptors is no larger than 20, Ukraine is effectively out of interceptor missiles once again, and the next Russian attack will likely achieve a 100% impact rate assuming no more are delivered between now and then. The smaller attack using 8 modified S-400 missiles last week, which had the aim of wasting these limited interceptors, worked in its goals.