Aftermath of yesterday's Russian Zircon hypersonic cruise missile and Oniks supersonic cruise missile strikes on the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant in the city of Ukrainka, Kyiv Oblast.

Unfortunately, it is now October and my horrendous prediction has come back to bite me.

I originally predicted on the April 28th that Slovyansk would fall by October. I reiterated to AMK on June 4th that i still had this prediction.

I am, in fact, embarrassed.

The Russian Ministry of Defence issued a statement regarding their overnight strikes on Ukraine.

In Kyiv City, they claim to have struck a logistics centre where a workshop used to produce drone-boats was located.

In Odesa Oblast, the MoD claims that a data centre was hit, along with a barge allegedly used to transport military equipment and dual-purpose cargo at Chornomorsk Port.

NASA FIRMS data indicates that a large fire is burning at the Ostrava Recreation Centre on the Arabat Spit in Crimea, following overnight Ukrainian drone strikes.

This facility is reportedly used as a base by the Russian military.

@WarUnitObserver reports that Russia has expanded their 4th Motor Rifle Brigade into the new 84th Motor Rifle Division, as it's manpower levels exceed that of a brigade and pass even other divisions.

The newly restructured unit now reportedly consists of 4 Motor Rifle Battalions, 1 Rifle Battalion, 1 Territorial Defence Battalion, 1 Tank Battalion, 2 Assault Companies, 1 Assault Detachment, 1 Reconnaissance Company, 1 UAV unit, 1 Howitzer Self-Propelled Artillery Battalion, and 1 Anti-Aircraft Missile Battalion.

The 84th Division currently operates in Kostyantynivka and surrounding areas, and has remained in this general direction since early-mid 2023.

Credit: https://x.com/WarUnitObserver/status/2105529733794398316

Russian Geran-4 jet-drones struck four more dry cargo ships, including three in the western Black Sea and one at Chornomorsk Port in Odesa Oblast.

I think Russia has probably overtaken Ukraine's 40-day operation in the number of drone strikes on ships by now.

Two Russian Tu-160M strategic bombers departed from Ukrainka Airbase around 4 hours ago, and are currently flying west to the Caspian Sea.

It's likely that this is a training mission, but there is a small chance they launch Kh-101 cruise missiles in the next 2 hours.

There is also a threat of Kalibr cruise missile launches from Buyan-M corvettes in the Caspian Sea.

However, it's possible that this is all happening as a part of the "Centre-2026" exercises at the Chebarkulsky Training Ground.

2 MiG-31K fighter jets are also airborne. They took off from Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast, presumably also for the "Centre-2026" exercises.

There's also a Tu-22m3 strategic bomber airborne from Olenya Airbase, flying to Akhtubinsk for the same purpose.

❗️Russia may carry out a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight.

According to available information, Russia has accumulated at least 30 ground-based missiles of various types, including Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles, Kn-23 ballistic missiles, and Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles. About a third of these missiles are Kn-23 ballistics.

In Bryansk Oblast (Klintsy, Bryansk City, & Pochep), Iskander-Ms and RM-48Us are present.

In Kursk Oblast (Fatezh, Manturovo, & Zheleznogorsk), Oniks and Zircons are present.

In Voronezh Oblast (Liski & Novovornezh), Kn-23s are present.

In Rostov Oblast (Millerovo & Taganrog), Zircons and Iskander-Ms are present.

The highest threat is to Kyiv City, Dnipro, and Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast). Potential targets include thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants in Kyiv and Dnipro (CHP-4/5/6 TPPs, Trypillya TPP, Prydniprovska TPP, Kyiv HPP, Dniprodzerzhynsk HPP), as well as the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery and the Kremenchuk TPP.

If the attack does take place, Geran-4 and Geran-5 jet-drones will also be used.

There is also a possibility of Kalibr cruise missiles being launched from Buyan-M corvettes in the Caspian Sea, although this information may be related to the ongoing "Centre-2026" exercises, rather than a potential attack.

Strategic bombers will not partake in this attack.

The highest threat is from 11pm to 3:30am (Kyiv Time).

The information provided is preliminary and unconfirmed. There is no guarantee that an attack will indeed take place, just an increased threat.