Today marks exactly 3 years since the October 7th attacks on Israel, and the subsequent Israeli invasion, genocide, and ethnic cleansing against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

~8 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are expected to take off from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, some time in the next 30 minutes.

They will then fly south to their launch lines in western Vologda Oblast, and launch Kh-101 cruise missiles towards Ukraine alongside the Tu-160M strategic bombers.

The flight from Olenya Airbase to their launch lines takes about 1.5 hours.

1 Tu-95MS strategic bomber departed from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast.

In the last 6 hours, Russian Geran-2/4/5 jet-drones have struck the following locations:

- Nalyvaikivka, Kyiv Oblast
- Lebedyn, Sumy Oblast
- Zhmerynka, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Kyiv City
- Zvyahel, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Kropyvnytskyi, Kirovohrad Oblast.
- Shakhtarske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Sumy City
- Kotsyubyns'ke, Kyiv Oblast
- Odesa City
- Obukhiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Tulchyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Snovsk, Chernihiv Oblast
- Mayaky, Odesa Oblast.

6-8 Tu-95MS strategic bombers took off from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast.

3 Tu-160M strategic bombers continue flying west to their launch lines in western Vologda Oblast.

They will reach them in around 90 minutes.

For the next 2 hours, there is a high threat of launches of Iskander-M, Kn-23 & RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles; Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles; and Zircon hypersonic ballistic missiles, towards Kyiv, Dnipro, and Kremenchuk.

Up to 30 could be launched

Missile Kyiv

Oniks-M

Oniks-M supersonic cruise missile launches from northern Kursk Oblast, flying southwest to Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast, with a likely further course to Kyiv.

Disappeared in Chernihiv Oblast.

No explosions were reported.

This was likely mixed up with Russian S-300 air defence trying to shoot down Ukrainian drones near the international border.

Or maybe it was long-range MLRS. It disappeared nearly 100 km deep inside Ukraine.

Iskander-M ballistic missile threat from Bryansk Oblast. High threat to Kyiv.

Kn-23/Oniks-M/Zircon missile threat from Kursk Oblast. High threat to Kyiv, Kremenchuk, and Dnipro.

Possible launches

Missiles to Kyiv

From Bryansk

2 missiles

Kn-23 threat from Voronezh