By tomorrow, I plan to be back to my usual posting schedule - once I have completed a number of unrelated tasks outside of my reported that I had lined up.

Tomorrow I plan to release a full series of much-needed frontline map updates from the last few weeks in Ukraine for each sector, and will likely go into some deeper tactical-level analysis on specific areas which need some more attention.

I'll also return to posting about each side's mid-to-long-range strikes on most days, and will probably begin talking more about the situation in the Middle East again, with a focus on the Gaza Strip, Yemen, the West Bank, and the Persian Gulf.

Thank you for your patience!

The ruins of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. October 2026.

3 battles and nearly 2 years of fighting since May 2022.

The most recent estimates indicate up to 1,600 civilians remain in the city, despite all the destruction and seemingly endless back-and-forth fighting.

A lot of people ask: why don't those civilians leave? Why are there still 1,600 civilians still in Lyman?

Well, some cant leave, but most, who have remained there for the 5 years of war, choose to stay there, either because they are waiting for the Russian Army as "liberators" or because they have lived in their house their whole lives and don't know anything else. By this stage of a battle, its usually a combination of both.

One quite striking example was, when earlier this year where the frontline looked something like what is shown on the map, some of the civilians in Shandryholove, which was under Russian control at the time, would simply walk down the road from the village, cross over the frontline, and enter Ukrainian-controlled Svyatohirsk to buy food and medicine from a shop there, and then simply return back across the frontline to their homes and basements in Shandryholove.

This is, of course, only able to occur due to the very small number of soldiers on each side actually concentrated along the frontline, and those who are there being hidden away to avoid being detected by drones.

Something similar occurred in the Vovchansk direction earlier this year, where civilians living in the villages of Lyman and Synelnykove would walk south to the village of Buhaivka to buy food and medicine from a store and then return across the frontline to their homes. In Kostyantynivka, some older civilians would drive to Druzhkivka (before the city was on the frontline) to collect their pensions, and then return to Kostyantynivka, where fighting was already taking place within the city at the time.

Ukrainian forces have re-established control over the village of Mykolaipillya, Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast (Kramatorsk District).

Pre-war population: ~483.
Total land area: ~0.93 km².

The battle for Mykolaipillya lasted approximately 1 month.

Note: Mykolaipillya was never under full Russian control, but it reached the criteria of being at least 50% contested for a post to be made about it.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured the village of Rozkishne, Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast (Kramatorsk District).

Pre-war population: ~152.
Total land area: ~0.21 km².

Ukrainian forces have recaptured the village of Novolyubivka, Lyman direction, Luhansk Oblast (Svatove District).

Pre-war population: ~99.
Total land area: ~0.78 km².

The second battle for Novolyubivka lasted approximately three weeks.

Russian forces have recaptured the village of Anyshchyne, Velykyi Burluk direction, Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk District).

Pre-war population: ~176.
Total land area: ~1.30 km².

The third battle for Anyshchyne lasted approximately three weeks.

Russian forces have recaptured the village of Vodyane, Velykyi Burluk direction, Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk District).

Pre-war population: ~124.
Total land area: ~2.30 km².

The second battle for Vodyane lasted approximately three weeks.

Luhansk Oblast holds

In case it wasn't already obvious, Trump's statement about an energy ceasefire is a lie.

Russian Geran-4/5 jet-drones have been attacking various energy facilities in Ukraine, including the TEC-5 Thermal Power Plant near Kharkiv, the 750 kV "Kyiv" Substation, and the 330 kV "Novokyivska" Substation, among others.

The situation for Russia in the Kramatorsk direction has deteriorated significantly in the last week. A lot of important areas on the tactical heights east of the city have been lost.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Arabia is suffering from a shortage of interceptor missiles and other air defence systems due to the recent heavy daily Ansarallah missile and drone attacks on its territory.

Saudi Arabia is reportedly struggling to defend its entire airspace with adequate air defence, and is redeploying air defence batteries around the country to protect key energy facilities, as well as its palaces. Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is reportedly carefully moving between “heavily guarded palaces equipped with bunkers” alongside handpicked security guards.

Yesterday, two Ansarallah cruise missiles managed to breach Saudi airspace for over 800 km, with one being intercepted over King Khalid International Airport and the other impacting.

Situation on the Hlukhiv direction, Sumy Oblast:

Over the last month, low-intensity fighting has persisted in the Hlukhiv direction, with Russian and Ukrainian forces each attempting to improve their positions.

In the north, Ukrainian forces cleared the surroundings of Bachivsk and Tovstodubove from earlier Russian infiltrations, and re-established control over most of Bachivsk. Other assault groups took up positions in the forests along the international border to the north, and carried out limited raiding actions into Bryansk Oblast towards the village of Troebortnoe. They also managed to recapture a number of treeline positions southeast of Bachivsk. Russian assault operations continue in the usual areas, including east and southeast of Bachivsk, and towards Tovstodubove from the border crossing.

In the south, Russian forces continued to gradually advance north from Bila Bereza towards Ulanove, capturing a number of new treeline positions between the two settlements. Some forward assault groups are now operating in Ulanove, attempting to gain a foothold there and push the Ukrainians out of the remaining houses. Ukrainian forces are actively counterattacking, attempting to block the Russian infiltrators within the village.

+ ~21.20 km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~2.12 km² in favour of Russia.

interactive map: amkmapping.com

Situation on the Khotin & Yunakivka directions, Sumy Oblast:

Over the last three weeks, Ukrainian forces carried out a series of clearing operations and counterattacks, primarily aimed at clearing the grey-zone in and around the forests north of Sumy City from earlier Russian infiltrations.

In the west, Ukrainian forces managed to push the Russians out of a number of positions south of Kindrativka and begin advancing east of the village, recapturing a series of treeline positions in the direction of the reservoir. Other forces are carrying out limited infiltrations into the western houses of Andriivka, where the grey-zone has been expanded.

To the southeast, the Ukrainians cleared the forest plantations north of Pysarivka and pushed the Russians back from the outskirts of Ivolzhanske and Kyyanytsya, allowing for them to subsequently recapture the villages of Korchakivka and Mala Korchakivka. Simultaneously, other forces recaptured the northern approaches to Nova Sich and the large forest further north, before re-entering the forested gulley in the direction of Varachyne.

To the east, Ukrainian forces cleared the approaches to Marine from earlier Russian infiltrations, and used the various treelines there as staging grounds to re-enter the town of Yunakivka, gaining a foothold in the southern streets, before beginning a push northwards the town centre. Other assault groups advanced northwest, reaching the highway west of Yunakivka, where fighting is underway.

+ ~41.40 km² in favour of Ukraine.

interactive map: amkmapping.com

Situation on the Krasnopillya direction, Sumy Oblast:

Low intensity fighting has continued over the last few weeks, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces carrying out limited assault operations in various different areas.

In the north, Russian forces improved their positions in the village of Stepok, taking up new positions towards the western outskirts, and established control over the nearby forest plantations. The process of consolidation is still being carried out, although they are suffering heavy casualties due to heavy Ukrainian FPV drone and artillery strikes.

To the south, Ukrainian forces launched a series of counterattacks towards Pokrovka, recapturing positions in the western part of the village, and continued to advance through the forests to the south. They also managed to regain control over the forested areas north of Novodmytrivka, allowng them to establish control over the northern part of the village. Russian assault groups have resumed their attacks in the southern part of Novodmytrivka, attempting to dislodge Ukrainian soldiers from their remaining positions there.

+ ~5.55 km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~1.57 km² in favour of Russia.

interactive map: amkmapping.com