⚡🇾🇪🇸🇦 Reuters: Yemen’s Houthis vowed to continue attacking Saudi airports and oil facilities, describing them as legitimate targets in retaliation for Saudi strikes on Yemen.

The group said it targeted Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran, King Khalid International Airport and an Aramco refinery in Riyadh using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones. It urged civilians, workers and international airlines to evacuate Saudi airports and oil facilities.

The warning followed extensive damage to Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters, while the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted another ballistic missile launched toward Riyadh.

@wfwitness

The IRGC is once again conducting ballistic missile tests. This image shows the launch of a missile from Zanjan, northwestern Iran.

Earlier, there were ballistic missile launcher movements reported in the city of Marand, northwestern Iran.

Zelensky posted higher-resolution imagery showing the aftermath of Ukraine's Neptune cruise missile attacks on Borisoglebsk Airbase, Voronezh Oblast, that destroyed four Russian Su-34M aircraft and damaged at least one other.

He confirmed the usage of the modernised Neptune long-range cruise missiles in the attack, and claimed that four aircraft were destroyed while 2 others were damaged. The aircraft were reportedly equipped with KAB glide-bombs at the time of the Ukrainian attack, and ready for strikes against frontline regions of Ukraine.

He also claimed that long-range drones once again targeted the Tsumbulova Test Site in Oryol Oblast, which is used by Russia to launch Geran-2 drones and Geran-4/5 jet-drones, as well as an unspecified target in the Black Sea.

A few days ago, Ukrainian authorities expanded the zone of mandatory evacuations for civilian families with children in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, due to the deteriorating security situation, to include most of the rest of the city.

Now, effectively all residential areas east of the river, including the city centre, are under mandatory evacuation orders for families with children. Only the Old City and some of the western suburbs are not included.

Previously, this zone covered around 10% of Kramatorsk. Now, it covers over half of the city, and at least two-thirds of the residential areas.

Some of the Russian Geran-5 jet-drones used to target western Ukraine today were recorded flying at speeds of 700-800 km/h, indicating Russia may have upgraded them or is using a new type of drone-missile.

The Geran-5 previously had a max speed of 600 km/h. An increase to 800 km/h would effectively put it on par with some of Russia's air-launched cruise missiles.

Ansarallah air defence struck a Saudi Typhoon fighter jet over the Saada Governorate of Yemen, damaging it and forcing the aircraft to return to its home base.

Russia continued their large-scale Geran-2 drone and Geran-4/5 jet-drone strike campaign against Ukraine last night, targeting numerous different cities, primarily in the Western Regions and Kyiv Oblast.

Explosions were heard in/near the following locations:

- Yagodyn, Volyn Oblast.
- Kovel, Volyn Oblast.
- Lutsk, Volyn Oblast.
- Dubno, Rivne Oblast.
- Rivne City.
- Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
- Dunaivtsi, Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
- Kopychyntsi, Ternopil Oblast.
- Chortkiv, Ternopil Oblast.
- Ivano-Frankivsk City.
- Zviahel, Zhytomyr Oblast.
- Bar, Vinnytsia Oblast.
- Korosten, Zhytomyr Oblast.
- Moshchun, Kyiv Oblast.
- Sviatopetrivske, Kyiv Oblast.
- Hatne, Kyiv Oblast.
- Boyarka, Kyiv Oblast.
- Khotiv, Kyiv Oblast.
- Kozyn, Kyiv Oblast.
- At least 5 different districts of Kyiv City.
- Uman, Cherkasy Oblast.
- Orshanets, Cherkasy Oblast.
- Voznesens'k, Mykolaiv Oblast.
- Shostka, Sumy Oblast.
- Baburka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- Zaporizhzhia City.
- Natalivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- Vil'nyans'k, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast.
- Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast.

Here's an interesting fact about Russia's jet-drone usage.

Currently, at the time of writing, there are only Geran-4/5 jet-drones detected in Ukrainian airspace. Not a single Geran-2 drone is in the air right now.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier will arrive in the Middle East by the end of October, and the midterms will be over by November 3.

After that, the regional war will likely resume.

So, what is the current status of the axis of resistance?

While the axis has been severely degraded from the last three years of on-and-off regional war, Iran and Ansarallah have become very emboldened by their recent successes, and it appears that the informal alliance is beginning to make a comeback.

- Iran likely has satellite intelligence being provided by Russia in response to American intelligence being provided to Ukraine, so the accuracy of their strikes and the value of their targets hit will be much higher. This, coupled with the critical U.S. interceptor missile shortages, is how Iran has established strong deterrence, and is why they are able to consistently strike ships in the Strait of Hormuz without any American retaliation, and even target U.S. bases without retaliation as we saw earlier this year.

- Ansarallah maintains a high capacity to launch ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at Saudi Arabia, even while actively fighting a large-scale ground war against the Saudi-backed PLC, which obviously takes up a lot of resources. They remain by far Iran's strongest ally in the region, and will be very useful to their war effort. Therefore, it's likely that Israel and the U.S. will resume strike operations against them, especially amid the major frontline advances being achieved by Ansarallah against the PLC in Yemen. I also think there will probably be a new PLC counteroffensive soon with Saudi air support in order to salvage the situation, potentially even pre-emptively due to a possible future threat to Aden by the Houthis. Such as operation could also involve American and Israeli air support if they don't suffer munition shortages from their strikes on Iran.

- Hezbollah is weakened, but has been able to consolidate control over the remaining parts of southern Lebanon in recent months following the end of the most recent phase of the war with Israel. They maintain the majority of their drone operators and FPV drone capacity, and still have a lot of long-range rockets in the Bekaa Valley. It's estimated that at least 2,000 elite Hezbollah Radwan operatives are still entrenched between the Israeli positions and the Litani River. Thousands more fighters are present throughout the Bekaa Valley and north of the Litani River. They will be weakened further if another war breaks out, but will remain largely a capable fighting force, unlike their various Palestinian militia allies in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

- With the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Iraqi territory, Iranian-backed militias are also emboldened, and retain significant capabilities to target Saudi Arabia, especially as they no longer have to focus much on targeting U.S. forces in Iraqi Kurdistan. As such, we will probably see a new wave of U.S. strikes on them if the war restarts

- Hamas, the PIJ, and other allied Palestinian groups will not take part in the next phase of the war, as they no longer remain a capable fighting force. Only some small decentralised Hamas and PIJ cells retain the neccesary combat capabilities, and with the complete dismantling of the post-war Hamas command structure by Israel in the last several months, and ongoing processes to replace Hamas' governance with a new Palestinian government friendly to Israel, it's unlikely that they will pose any major threat. It seems that after nearly 80 years, Palestinian armed resistance within Israel and the Palestinian territories can soon be considered dead.

As for the American-Israeli alliance, I believe there's a solid chance we will see the UAE get directly involved in striking Iran (if they haven't already in the most recent phase of the war), at least in some limited capacity. Saudi Arabia likely wont be, as they will be tied up in Yemen dealing with the Houthis. But, interceptor missiles remain a very big issue for this alliance, and with Iran and Ansarallah maintaining their strong missile capabilities, they will lose a lot more valuable infrastructure and will probably suffer additional casualties among personnel.

Israel will most likely be spared the majority of the damage, due to its long distance from Iran meaning only a small portion of Iranian missiles can reach them; their small size making air defence a lot easier to fully cover their airspace; and because they have one of the strongest air defence networks in the world. As we saw in the most recent phases of the war, in my opinion, Iran will once again likely not focus on targeting Israel, as it is less cost-effective, and will not result in much significant damage to their military infrastructure. The Gulf States will again bear the brunt of the attacks, along with U.S. forces stationed in the region, providing Israel with ample opportunity for a new intensified war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Well, well, well.

Russian Geran-4 jet-drone strikes on a warehouse, a fuel and lubricants plant, and two industrial enterprises.

Russian Geran-4 jet-drones struck three more dry cargo vessels in the western Black Sea, as well as a ship claimed to be used by Ukraine to launch drone-boats.

Explosions in Zaporizhzhia City. Russian KAB glide-bomb attack.

At least 3 strikes so far.

The city of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, has come under very heavy Russian attacks in the last 12 hours.

Overnight, at least 16 KAB glide-bombs struck the vicinity of the city centre. Another 11+ strong explosions were also heard in the city centre and surrounding suburbs throughout the early morning hours, although its unclear if this was from KABs or MLRS strikes.

The outskirts of Kramatorsk from both the eastern and southern directions also came under heavy shelling throughout the night.