Oleshky Ceasefire.

It's now been over 48 hours since the implementation of the ceasefire across Kherson Oblast, and no major violations have been recorded.

It has become apparent that one of the terms of the ceasefire is that Ukrainian and Russian drones are not allowed to cross the Dnieper River to the opposite banks, meaning that any reconnaissance of logistics from either side must be conducted from a significant distance.

Russia and Ukraine are both taking advantage of this to reinforce their positions in the region. Russian forces are bringing forward new reinforcements in trucks, and increasing their presence along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. According to unconfirmed reports, Russian forces are also constructing anti-drone netting over the industrial zone of Nova Kakhovka. Ukrainian forces are conducting rotations throughout the western bank of the river, evacuating the remaining injured and killed personnel, and bringing forward new supplies to frontline positions. Heavy demining operations continue on both banks of the river. One Ukrainian marine has already been killed by the detonation of unexploded ordinance.

On the islands in the river, there is practically no movements of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, as it's less clear where the ceasefire line is there. Ukrainian and Russian forces both continue to hold positions on the islands, including sometimes fairly close to one another. It's likely that neither side wants to be detected there so as not to give each other a reason to break the truce.

Russian channels claim that at least two Ukrainian FPV drones were shot down over the R-57 Highway southwest of Oleshky. It's unclear if these alleged drones were for reconnaissance or strike purposes. It's also claimed that several Ukrainian FPV drones attempted to approach the Tendrovska Spit, but were shot down. Ukrainian artillery shelling reportedly targeted Russian positions on the Kinburn Spit, however, because this is technically part of Mykolaiv Oblast, it's likely that the ceasefire does not extend to there.

Throughout the last day, Ukrainian channels sporadically reported drone detections over the suburbs of Kherson closest to the river, as well as over the river itself, opposite the port. It's unknown if these were Ukrainian drones or Russian drones. Likely a mix a both.

There is a general consensus in the information space that, because both sides are taking advantage of this ceasefire to bring forward heavy reinforcements and increase their presence on both sides of the river, the intensity of fighting will significantly increase after the end of the truce, as both sides will have a much higher strike capacity for some time.

The attached video shows the streets of western Kherson this evening, filled with more civilians than ever since 2022.

I’m out walking and there’s a car with a number plate “SBU”.

They’re watching me 😁

This is the kind of thing I should post before taking a break from reporting and going completely silent for a week with no explanation

The Russian Ministry of Defence claims to have struck a barge in the western Black Sea, which was allegedly transporting military cargo and dual-use goods to Odesa Port.

Russia continued their Geran-2/4 drone attacks against Kharkiv Oblast last night.

Targets were hit in Industrialnyi, Saltivskyi, Kholodnohirs'kyi, and Nemyshlianskyi Districts of Kharkiv City; the cities of Merefa and Zmiiv; and the town of Slobozhanske.

A large fire was seen burning in Kharkiv City following a strike on the Kholodnohirs'kyi District.

NASA FIRMS data indicates that a large fire is burning at Marinovka Airbase in Volgograd Oblast following overnight Ukrainian mid-range drone strikes.

Marinovka Airbase is home to Su-24 and Su-34 aircraft. It has been hit by Ukrainian drones in the past, damaging and destroying four Su-34s.

The Russian Ministry of Defence claims that 1,214 Ukrainian drones were shot down in a single night.

The IRGC attacked a vessel off the coast of Khasab, Oman, in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a fire breaking out onboard.

The IRGC claims to have shot down another U.S. MQ-1 drone, over the eastern part of the Strait of Hormuz, opposite Sirik.

They claim that this is the 14th MQ-1C drone to be shot down since the beginning of the war.

Ua losses updated their count, methodology and map on Ukrainian 🇺🇦 losses in the war, following KIA, MIA and POW

Ukrainian losses:
🔸29k losses in 2022
🔸31k losses in 2023
🔸47k losses in 2024
🔸51k losses in 2025
🔸30k losses in 2026

The database is very useful: we have multiple units, WIA and POW, a map of losses and the possibility to track key battles of the war. The recent data is much better than the Russian one and includes MIA, which is the main difference with Mediazona's count of Russian losses (it is also less conservative).

🔸 ~2k Ukrainian soldiers died during the Kostiantynivka battle, most of which are MIA
🔸~4k Ukrainian soldiers died during the Pokrovsk battle
🔸~1.2k Ukrainian soldiers died in Krinky, Kherson oblast
🔸~6k Ukrainian soldiers died in the Bakhmut battle
🔸~2k soldiers died in the Robotyne counter-offensive and ~1k in the Velika Novosilka counter-offensive
🔸~8k Ukrainian soldiers died during the Kursk operation (all length of it)

Check @LossesUA for details

https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2115717162455179686?a=pqM1Tu3YlRhcvW6jj_8&s=46

A good post summarizing the known casualties taken by both sides.

In my opinion, Russia and Ukraine have likely each suffered around 500,000-600,000 dead. Mediazona’s figures certainly seems to indicate this for Russia, and I’d imagine Ualosses has similar large delays for counting Ukrainian casualties, especially considering Ukraine struggles more with evacuating their killed, as Russia generally advances more and has overwhelming firepower + manpower on the front.

As for wounded, the heavy use of drones has likely made it so the 1:2 kia:wia ratio is no longer accurate. It’s likely closer to 1:1.5. This is because drones make evacuation wounded much more difficult, and they are very precise and deadly weapons being added to the battlefield that mostly kill upon direct impact.