Situation on the Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast:
Over the last two weeks, Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive northeast of Lyman, making new advances towards and across the Zherebets River.
In the north, Ukrainian forces initiated new assault operations in Luhansk Oblast northwest of Makiivka, clearing two forested areas and some adjacent treelines. Other forces continued infiltrating eastwards further south, reaching the western outskirts of Makiivka and entering the southern streets.
In the south, the Ukrainians were finally able to push the Russians out of the village of Ivanivka, establishing full control over this section of the western bank of the Zherebets River. Small assault groups have since intensified their infiltrations across the Zherebets River, entering the villages of Terny and Novosadove, as well as the fields further east.
+ ~12.59 kmยฒ in favour of Ukraine.
Interactive map: amkmapping.com
#Ukrainemap
Over the last two weeks, Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive northeast of Lyman, making new advances towards and across the Zherebets River.
In the north, Ukrainian forces initiated new assault operations in Luhansk Oblast northwest of Makiivka, clearing two forested areas and some adjacent treelines. Other forces continued infiltrating eastwards further south, reaching the western outskirts of Makiivka and entering the southern streets.
In the south, the Ukrainians were finally able to push the Russians out of the village of Ivanivka, establishing full control over this section of the western bank of the Zherebets River. Small assault groups have since intensified their infiltrations across the Zherebets River, entering the villages of Terny and Novosadove, as well as the fields further east.
+ ~12.59 kmยฒ in favour of Ukraine.
Interactive map: amkmapping.com
#Ukrainemap
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Situation on the Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast:
Over the last two weeks, Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive east of Lyman, making new advances in the villages of Yampil and Zarichne towards the Zherebets River.
In the north, Ukrainian forces broke through Russian defences in the northern part of Zarichne after repeated unsuccessful attacks, entering the centre of the village. From the south, other Ukrainian assault groups improved their positions, reaching the centre of the settlement from this direction too, while some small infiltration groups managed to cross the Zherebets River and enter the village of Torske.
In the south, the Ukrainians continued their slow advance through Yampil and managed to establish control over the centre of the village and some of the eastern streets. Heavy fighting continues for the rest of the eastern part of Yampil. Other Ukrainian forces continue their attacks through the forests south of Zarichne, attempting to clear the remaining Russian positions west of the Zherebets River for further assaults northeast of Yampil towards the Serebryanske Forest.
+ ~4.70 kmยฒ in favour of Ukraine.
Interactive map: amkmapping.com
#Ukrainemap
Over the last two weeks, Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive east of Lyman, making new advances in the villages of Yampil and Zarichne towards the Zherebets River.
In the north, Ukrainian forces broke through Russian defences in the northern part of Zarichne after repeated unsuccessful attacks, entering the centre of the village. From the south, other Ukrainian assault groups improved their positions, reaching the centre of the settlement from this direction too, while some small infiltration groups managed to cross the Zherebets River and enter the village of Torske.
In the south, the Ukrainians continued their slow advance through Yampil and managed to establish control over the centre of the village and some of the eastern streets. Heavy fighting continues for the rest of the eastern part of Yampil. Other Ukrainian forces continue their attacks through the forests south of Zarichne, attempting to clear the remaining Russian positions west of the Zherebets River for further assaults northeast of Yampil towards the Serebryanske Forest.
+ ~4.70 kmยฒ in favour of Ukraine.
Interactive map: amkmapping.com
#Ukrainemap
โค77๐คฃ43๐34๐คฎ22๐18๐คฌ10๐5๐ซก5๐ฅ1
Situation on the Slovyansk & Kramatorsk directions, Donetsk Oblast:
Over the last two weeks, Ukrainian forces continued their counterattacks east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, making new progress in several different areas.
In the north, Ukrainian forces cleared the fortifications and forests southwest of Kryva Luka from earlier Russian re-infiltrations and began infiltrating east towards the village of Kalenyky. Russian forces continued attempts at dislodging Ukrainian soldiers from their positions in the northern streets of Kryva Luka.
To the south, the Ukrainians recaptured the village of Yurkivka and regained control over a series of treeline positions east of the Siverskyi Donets River. From there, small assault groups began infiltrations eastward into the villages of Lypivka, Dibrova, and Fedorivka Druha. Positional battles in Rai-Oleksandrivka continue, where neither side is able to gain the upper hand in the large grey-zone there.
To the southwest, Ukrainian forces initiated a new series of counterattacks along the Siverskyi-Donets Canal, building on their previous successes near Yurkivka and Zapovide. They were able to recapture several strongpoints along the western bank of the canal, threatening to cut off Malynivka. Other assault groups began pushing north from their earlier spearhead into Minkivka, recapturing the village of Tykhonivka and the surrounding treelines. Clearing operations against the remaining Russian positions in Malynivka are underway, which would effectively eliminate the Russian bridgehead west of the Siverskyi-Donets Canal.
+ ~17.30 kmยฒ in favour of Ukraine.
Interactive map: amkmapping.com
#Ukrainemap
Over the last two weeks, Ukrainian forces continued their counterattacks east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, making new progress in several different areas.
In the north, Ukrainian forces cleared the fortifications and forests southwest of Kryva Luka from earlier Russian re-infiltrations and began infiltrating east towards the village of Kalenyky. Russian forces continued attempts at dislodging Ukrainian soldiers from their positions in the northern streets of Kryva Luka.
To the south, the Ukrainians recaptured the village of Yurkivka and regained control over a series of treeline positions east of the Siverskyi Donets River. From there, small assault groups began infiltrations eastward into the villages of Lypivka, Dibrova, and Fedorivka Druha. Positional battles in Rai-Oleksandrivka continue, where neither side is able to gain the upper hand in the large grey-zone there.
To the southwest, Ukrainian forces initiated a new series of counterattacks along the Siverskyi-Donets Canal, building on their previous successes near Yurkivka and Zapovide. They were able to recapture several strongpoints along the western bank of the canal, threatening to cut off Malynivka. Other assault groups began pushing north from their earlier spearhead into Minkivka, recapturing the village of Tykhonivka and the surrounding treelines. Clearing operations against the remaining Russian positions in Malynivka are underway, which would effectively eliminate the Russian bridgehead west of the Siverskyi-Donets Canal.
+ ~17.30 kmยฒ in favour of Ukraine.
Interactive map: amkmapping.com
#Ukrainemap
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Situation on the Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast:
Over the last two weeks, Russian forces continued their offensive operations on the flanks of Kostyantynivka, making minor advances in a few different areas.
In the northeast, Russia restarted assault operations in the area of Maiske, capturing the majority of the village and a treeline to the north. They also managed to advance north from Molocharka, entrenching in the forests west of Stinky, and continuing their infiltrations towards the Popasne area. Clashes continue in the Mykolaivka area, where Russian forces continue attempts to dislodge the remaining Ukrainian soldiers from their positions west of Chasiv Yar.
To the southwest, Russian forces marginally advanced along the eastern bank of the chain of reservoirs west of Kostynatynivka, taking up new positions on the western outskirts of the city. Small assault groups continue sporadic attempts at infiltrating Oleksijevo-Druzhkivka, although the frequency of these attacks has slowed in recent weeks. Ukrainian forces continue their attempts at clearing Russian forces from the western part of the town. Ukrainian forces are also continuing their infiltrations into the northern part of Kostyantynivka, where they are trying to recapture positions along the eastern bank of the Kryvyi Torets River. Additionally, Russian forces managed to improve their positions west of Dovha Balka, recapturing a number of treeline positions there.
+ ~9.17 kmยฒ in favour of Russia.
Interactive map: amkmapping.com
#Ukrainemap
Over the last two weeks, Russian forces continued their offensive operations on the flanks of Kostyantynivka, making minor advances in a few different areas.
In the northeast, Russia restarted assault operations in the area of Maiske, capturing the majority of the village and a treeline to the north. They also managed to advance north from Molocharka, entrenching in the forests west of Stinky, and continuing their infiltrations towards the Popasne area. Clashes continue in the Mykolaivka area, where Russian forces continue attempts to dislodge the remaining Ukrainian soldiers from their positions west of Chasiv Yar.
To the southwest, Russian forces marginally advanced along the eastern bank of the chain of reservoirs west of Kostynatynivka, taking up new positions on the western outskirts of the city. Small assault groups continue sporadic attempts at infiltrating Oleksijevo-Druzhkivka, although the frequency of these attacks has slowed in recent weeks. Ukrainian forces continue their attempts at clearing Russian forces from the western part of the town. Ukrainian forces are also continuing their infiltrations into the northern part of Kostyantynivka, where they are trying to recapture positions along the eastern bank of the Kryvyi Torets River. Additionally, Russian forces managed to improve their positions west of Dovha Balka, recapturing a number of treeline positions there.
+ ~9.17 kmยฒ in favour of Russia.
Interactive map: amkmapping.com
#Ukrainemap
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Forwarded from GEOIMINT (Aryan)
Geolocation of recently released footage by Saudi Arabiaโs Ministry of Defense showing an AN/MPQ-50 Pulse Acquisition Radar (PAR) belonging to the I-HAWK (MIM-23B) air defense system.
C: 18.289459, 42.792009
S: https://x.com/modgovksa/status/2115049045890904074
โข @GEOIMINT โข
C: 18.289459, 42.792009
S: https://x.com/modgovksa/status/2115049045890904074
โข @GEOIMINT โข
๐คฃ107โค13๐6๐3๐2๐คฌ1๐คฎ1
GEOIMINT (Aryan)
Geolocation of recently released footage by Saudi Arabiaโs Ministry of Defense showing an AN/MPQ-50 Pulse Acquisition Radar (PAR) belonging to the I-HAWK (MIM-23B) air defense system. C: 18.289459, 42.792009 S: https://x.com/modgovksa/status/2115049045890904074โฆ
OPSEC level: Saudi
๐คฃ126๐ญ11๐3โค1๐1
AMK Mapping
Russians hacked the official Ukraine alert map today
In response to the cyberattack, Ukrainians hacked the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations app, resulting in nuclear threats being spammed in all of their regional channels.
1๐คฃ301๐คฎ46๐ฅ14๐10
AMK Mapping
For the last 16 hours, Russia has been carrying out a large-scale attack on Ukraine using hundreds of Geran-2 drones and Geran-4/5 jet-drones. The primary target has been electrical substations and railway infrastructure. Explosions were heard in/near theโฆ
Russia's 48-hour-long massive Geran drone attack on Ukraine has finally concluded.
Over 1,400 Geran-4/5 jet-drones and Geran-2 drones were used in total, attacking dozens of different towns and cities across 22 out of 24 regions (excluding Kherson Oblast due to the ceasefire). Of these 1,400 drones, around 1,000 Geran-2/Gerberas and 400 Geran-4/5s were used.
The main targets were electrical substations and railway infrastructure, as well as some airbases used by the Ukrainian Air Force. Widespread power outages occurred across large parts of Ukraine, including the cities of Dnipro and Kyiv, and the implementation of rolling blackouts has been intensified.
In the second half of the attack (the last 24 hours), explosions were heard in/near the following locations:
- Lviv City
- Hlyniany, Lviv Oblast
- Kremenets, Ternopil Oblast
- Dubno, Rivne Oblast
- Kostopil, Rivne Oblast
- Hoshcha, Rivne Oblast
- Rivne City
- Manevychi, Volyn Oblast
- Netishyn, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Slavuta, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Horodok, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Letychiv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Derazhnya, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Khmelnytskyi City
- Chernivtsi City
- Mohyliv-Podil's'kyi, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Turbiv, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Kozyatyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Lypovets, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Illintsi, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Vinnytsia City
- Chudniv, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Rudnya-Horodyshche, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Ozerne, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Korostyshiv, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Zhytomyr City
- Uman, Cherkasy Oblast
- Cherkasy City
- Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast
- Fastiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Bucha, Kyiv Oblast
- Irpin, Kyiv Oblast
- Brovary, Kyiv Oblast
- Kalynivka, Kyiv Oblast
- Multiple different districts of Kyiv City
- Vylkove, Odesa Oblast
- Usatove, Odesa Oblast
- Mayaky, Odesa Oblast
- Odesa City
- Dolyns'ka, Kirovohrad Oblast
- Baburka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Rozumivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Vilnyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Oril'ka, Kharkiv Oblast
- Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast
- Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast
- Rohan, Kharkiv Oblast
- Vasyshcheve, Kharkiv Oblast
- Kharkiv City
- Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast
- Hlobyne, Poltava Oblast
- Putyvl, Sumy Oblast
- Konotop, Sumy Oblast
- Shostka, Sumy Oblast
- Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast
- Nosivka, Chernihiv Oblast
The first half (24 hours) of the attack involved a little over 600 Geran-2/4/5 drones, and focused primarily on targeting energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as well as railway and energy infrastructure across Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, and Ternopil Oblast. There were also a large number of strikes on Kyiv and its surroundings, and heavy attacks on Sumy City and its surroundings. Southern Ukraine (Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts) were largely spared from attacks.
The second half (24 hours) of the attack involved around 700 Geran-2/4/5 drones, and continued to focus on energy and railway infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine, although strikes on Ternopil Oblast were swapped for heavier attacks on the neighbouring Rivne Oblast. Kyiv and its surroundings continued to see a lot of activity, although this decreased compared to the first half. Odesa Oblast was struck this time, and there was also more activity seen in Zaporizhzhia Oblast too. Strikes on energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts decreased compared to the first half.
In my opinion, this is a prelude to the upcoming combined missile and drone attack involving strategic aviation, which will likely occur sometime this week. It has helped exhaust Ukrainian air defence and aviation capabilities, and put further strain on the power grid, which will be hit even harder once the missiles start flying. I will make a separate post about the preparations for this upcoming missile attack in the near future.
(Note: The attached map shows only the strikes from the second half of the attack. You can find the map of the first half in the quoted post)
Over 1,400 Geran-4/5 jet-drones and Geran-2 drones were used in total, attacking dozens of different towns and cities across 22 out of 24 regions (excluding Kherson Oblast due to the ceasefire). Of these 1,400 drones, around 1,000 Geran-2/Gerberas and 400 Geran-4/5s were used.
The main targets were electrical substations and railway infrastructure, as well as some airbases used by the Ukrainian Air Force. Widespread power outages occurred across large parts of Ukraine, including the cities of Dnipro and Kyiv, and the implementation of rolling blackouts has been intensified.
In the second half of the attack (the last 24 hours), explosions were heard in/near the following locations:
- Lviv City
- Hlyniany, Lviv Oblast
- Kremenets, Ternopil Oblast
- Dubno, Rivne Oblast
- Kostopil, Rivne Oblast
- Hoshcha, Rivne Oblast
- Rivne City
- Manevychi, Volyn Oblast
- Netishyn, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Slavuta, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Horodok, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Letychiv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Derazhnya, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Khmelnytskyi City
- Chernivtsi City
- Mohyliv-Podil's'kyi, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Turbiv, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Kozyatyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Lypovets, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Illintsi, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Vinnytsia City
- Chudniv, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Rudnya-Horodyshche, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Ozerne, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Korostyshiv, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Zhytomyr City
- Uman, Cherkasy Oblast
- Cherkasy City
- Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast
- Fastiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Bucha, Kyiv Oblast
- Irpin, Kyiv Oblast
- Brovary, Kyiv Oblast
- Kalynivka, Kyiv Oblast
- Multiple different districts of Kyiv City
- Vylkove, Odesa Oblast
- Usatove, Odesa Oblast
- Mayaky, Odesa Oblast
- Odesa City
- Dolyns'ka, Kirovohrad Oblast
- Baburka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Rozumivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Vilnyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Oril'ka, Kharkiv Oblast
- Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast
- Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast
- Rohan, Kharkiv Oblast
- Vasyshcheve, Kharkiv Oblast
- Kharkiv City
- Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast
- Hlobyne, Poltava Oblast
- Putyvl, Sumy Oblast
- Konotop, Sumy Oblast
- Shostka, Sumy Oblast
- Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast
- Nosivka, Chernihiv Oblast
The first half (24 hours) of the attack involved a little over 600 Geran-2/4/5 drones, and focused primarily on targeting energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as well as railway and energy infrastructure across Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, and Ternopil Oblast. There were also a large number of strikes on Kyiv and its surroundings, and heavy attacks on Sumy City and its surroundings. Southern Ukraine (Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts) were largely spared from attacks.
The second half (24 hours) of the attack involved around 700 Geran-2/4/5 drones, and continued to focus on energy and railway infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine, although strikes on Ternopil Oblast were swapped for heavier attacks on the neighbouring Rivne Oblast. Kyiv and its surroundings continued to see a lot of activity, although this decreased compared to the first half. Odesa Oblast was struck this time, and there was also more activity seen in Zaporizhzhia Oblast too. Strikes on energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts decreased compared to the first half.
In my opinion, this is a prelude to the upcoming combined missile and drone attack involving strategic aviation, which will likely occur sometime this week. It has helped exhaust Ukrainian air defence and aviation capabilities, and put further strain on the power grid, which will be hit even harder once the missiles start flying. I will make a separate post about the preparations for this upcoming missile attack in the near future.
(Note: The attached map shows only the strikes from the second half of the attack. You can find the map of the first half in the quoted post)
๐ฅ128โค36๐คฌ23๐12๐5๐คฎ3๐คฃ3
AMK Mapping
Russia's 48-hour-long massive Geran drone attack on Ukraine has finally concluded. Over 1,400 Geran-4/5 jet-drones and Geran-2 drones were used in total, attacking dozens of different towns and cities across 22 out of 24 regions (excluding Kherson Oblastโฆ
I do find it funny, though, that this massive attack involving over 1,400 long-range drones, hundreds of successful strikes, and almost every region of Ukraine hit was almost entirely ignored in the information space in favour for two Russian refineries being hit by a few Ukrainian drones each.
๐ฏ313๐37๐15โค9
โ๏ธThe next Russian large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine involving strategic bombers is expected to take place in the next 48 hours:
A record number of Russian Tu-160M modernised strategic bombers are now equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles, and will take part in this upcoming attack. A 5th Tu-160M strategic bomber was equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Engels-2 Airbase yesterday, and subsequently flew back to Ukrainka Airbase in the evening.
Additionally, up to 10 Tu-95MS strategic bombers were stationed at Ukrainka Airbase. It's likely that not all of these are equipped with missiles, but they may all be airborne for the attack as some carry out training missions alongside the ones actually launching missiles. At least three of these 10 aircraft were redeployed to Olenya Airbase overnight, landing a short time ago. The rest are likely to follow during the day.
As for ground-launched missiles, Russia has been actively accumulating Iskander-M, Kn-23, and RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles; as well as Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, at launch sites in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Voronezh Oblast, Rostov Oblast, and Crimea.
What missiles could be used?
- 50-70 Kh-101 cruise missiles - Up to 20 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles - Up to 10 Kn-23 ballistic missiles - Several Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles - Several Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles - 8-24 Kalibr cruise missiles
- Several Iskander-K or Kh-59/69 cruise missiles - Several S8000 Banderol cruise missiles - Hundreds of Geran-2/4/5 and Gerbera drones.
Not all of these missiles listed above are expected to be used. These are just the maximums. It's possible that the attack will involve minimal ground-based missiles, and that they will be used in a separate attack days afterwards.
In my opinion, the Kh-101 cruise missiles and drones will target energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine, while any other missiles would target the eastern half of Ukraine as usual. Drones will likely be used to target energy, warehouse and railway infrastructure.
Additionally, the fact that Russia has waited until the end of the localised ceasefire in Kherson Oblast suggests that they may intend to use Kalibr cruise missiles, and have them fly over Kherson Oblast as they enter Ukrainian airspace. As a part of the earlier ceasefire, neither side could use the airspace over Kherson Oblast for missile and drone overflights, regardless of if they were targeting Kherson Oblast itself or not.
Due to changing light levels as we approach Winter, the attacks with strategic bombers will probably take place after 6am local time, as the Kh-101 cruise missiles require light for more effective guidance. This means that the attack may be split into two halves, with ground-launched and sea-launched missiles being used after midnight, and the air-launched missiles being used during the early morning hours as the sun rises.
The primary targets will probably be energy and railway infrastructure.
In my opinion, the attack will likely take place tonight, although this will become clearer closer to the time.
A record number of Russian Tu-160M modernised strategic bombers are now equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles, and will take part in this upcoming attack. A 5th Tu-160M strategic bomber was equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Engels-2 Airbase yesterday, and subsequently flew back to Ukrainka Airbase in the evening.
Additionally, up to 10 Tu-95MS strategic bombers were stationed at Ukrainka Airbase. It's likely that not all of these are equipped with missiles, but they may all be airborne for the attack as some carry out training missions alongside the ones actually launching missiles. At least three of these 10 aircraft were redeployed to Olenya Airbase overnight, landing a short time ago. The rest are likely to follow during the day.
As for ground-launched missiles, Russia has been actively accumulating Iskander-M, Kn-23, and RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles; as well as Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, at launch sites in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Voronezh Oblast, Rostov Oblast, and Crimea.
What missiles could be used?
- 50-70 Kh-101 cruise missiles - Up to 20 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles - Up to 10 Kn-23 ballistic missiles - Several Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles - Several Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles - 8-24 Kalibr cruise missiles
- Several Iskander-K or Kh-59/69 cruise missiles - Several S8000 Banderol cruise missiles - Hundreds of Geran-2/4/5 and Gerbera drones.
Not all of these missiles listed above are expected to be used. These are just the maximums. It's possible that the attack will involve minimal ground-based missiles, and that they will be used in a separate attack days afterwards.
In my opinion, the Kh-101 cruise missiles and drones will target energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine, while any other missiles would target the eastern half of Ukraine as usual. Drones will likely be used to target energy, warehouse and railway infrastructure.
Additionally, the fact that Russia has waited until the end of the localised ceasefire in Kherson Oblast suggests that they may intend to use Kalibr cruise missiles, and have them fly over Kherson Oblast as they enter Ukrainian airspace. As a part of the earlier ceasefire, neither side could use the airspace over Kherson Oblast for missile and drone overflights, regardless of if they were targeting Kherson Oblast itself or not.
Due to changing light levels as we approach Winter, the attacks with strategic bombers will probably take place after 6am local time, as the Kh-101 cruise missiles require light for more effective guidance. This means that the attack may be split into two halves, with ground-launched and sea-launched missiles being used after midnight, and the air-launched missiles being used during the early morning hours as the sun rises.
The primary targets will probably be energy and railway infrastructure.
In my opinion, the attack will likely take place tonight, although this will become clearer closer to the time.
โคโ๐ฅ103โค35
Forwarded from WarFront Witness (Meteor Sabra)
โก๏ธ๐ต๐ธ๐ฎ๐ฑ TRT World: Israeli forces withdrew from Hebron after a 10-day siege, according to Governor Khaled Dudin, who said Palestinian security forces had taken control and displaced families could return.
Hebron Municipality said 4,969 Palestinians from 780 families were displaced and at least 15
homes and other structures demolished. Authorities also reported damage to infrastructure and disruption to education.
The operation began on October 23 following a shooting that killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded three others.
@wfwitness
Hebron Municipality said 4,969 Palestinians from 780 families were displaced and at least 15
homes and other structures demolished. Authorities also reported damage to infrastructure and disruption to education.
The operation began on October 23 following a shooting that killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded three others.
@wfwitness
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A few seconds ago, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet tried to shoot down a Ukrainian Su-24/Mirage-2000 aircraft flying near Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast, with an R-37/77 air-to-air missile.
It's possible that the Ukrainian aircraft was going to launch Storm Shadow cruise missiles at border regions of Russia.
It's possible that the Ukrainian aircraft was going to launch Storm Shadow cruise missiles at border regions of Russia.
โค110๐29๐ฅ19
Forwarded from WarFront Witness (๐ค๐ค๐ค)
โก๏ธ๐ช๐น๐ท๐บ Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has announced that Ethiopia has received 12 Russian-made Su-35 fighter jets, with four S-400 air defence systems expected to follow.
He described the delivery as a โfirst batchโ and a milestone in strengthening national security and pre-emptive deterrence against aggression.
Abiy said President Vladimir Putin helped ensure delivery of the fourth-generation Su-35 jets a year ahead of schedule, under a prior agreement with the Russian government.
@wfwitness
He described the delivery as a โfirst batchโ and a milestone in strengthening national security and pre-emptive deterrence against aggression.
Abiy said President Vladimir Putin helped ensure delivery of the fourth-generation Su-35 jets a year ahead of schedule, under a prior agreement with the Russian government.
@wfwitness
โค126๐คฎ43๐25๐ซก10๐คฃ6๐ฅ5๐5๐ค4
Forwarded from WarFront Witness (๐ค๐ค๐ค)
โก๏ธ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ Israeli Army Radio: Political considerations have again shaped security decisions in Hebron, where a 10โday operation described as a failure yielding only four weapons, with the political echelon refusing to withdraw before the elections and agreeing to do so only afterwards.
It described the 10โday operation in Hebron, a city it called โfull of weaponsโ, as a failure after only four weapons were seized.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz promised โthe Jenin refugee camp model is coming to Hebronโ, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the โsuccessful and aggressive modelโ used in the refugee camps would be applied in Hebron.
@wfwitness
It described the 10โday operation in Hebron, a city it called โfull of weaponsโ, as a failure after only four weapons were seized.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz promised โthe Jenin refugee camp model is coming to Hebronโ, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the โsuccessful and aggressive modelโ used in the refugee camps would be applied in Hebron.
@wfwitness
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AMK Mapping
โ๏ธThe next Russian large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine involving strategic bombers is expected to take place in the next 48 hours: A record number of Russian Tu-160M modernised strategic bombers are now equipped with Kh-101 cruise missilesโฆ
Small update on the upcoming combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine:
7 more Tu-95MS strategic bombers are redeploying from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East to Olenya and Engels-2 Airbases, supported by three IL-78 aerial refuelers. They will land at Olenya and Engels-2 Airbases in the next few hours. As I said earlier, all of these aircraft are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.
5 Tu-160M strategic bombers remain ready at Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East. All five are equipped with 10-12 Kh-101 cruise missiles each. This, combined with the Tu-95s, could indicate over 70 Kh-101 cruise missiles will be launched.
These were the final preparations for the attack.
I still think it's likely that the attack will take place tonight, although this is not yet confirmed. I will update this again later on.
7 more Tu-95MS strategic bombers are redeploying from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East to Olenya and Engels-2 Airbases, supported by three IL-78 aerial refuelers. They will land at Olenya and Engels-2 Airbases in the next few hours. As I said earlier, all of these aircraft are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.
5 Tu-160M strategic bombers remain ready at Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East. All five are equipped with 10-12 Kh-101 cruise missiles each. This, combined with the Tu-95s, could indicate over 70 Kh-101 cruise missiles will be launched.
These were the final preparations for the attack.
I still think it's likely that the attack will take place tonight, although this is not yet confirmed. I will update this again later on.
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AMK Mapping
Small update on the upcoming combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine: 7 more Tu-95MS strategic bombers are redeploying from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East to Olenya and Engels-2 Airbases, supported by three IL-78 aerial refuelers. They will land atโฆ
โ๏ธRussiaโs large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine will take place tonight.
5 Tu-160M strategic bombers have departed from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East and are flying west to their launch lines in western Vologda Oblast, which they are expected to reach in around 6 hours. It will take a little under 2 more hours after that for the missiles to enter Ukrainian airspace.
Communications between Olenya Airbase and strategic command and control in Moscow on combat frequencies have also been recorded. Itโs expected that up to 10 Tu-95MS strategic bombers will depart from Olenya Airbase in around 4.5 hours from now. Not all of these aircraft will launch Kh-101 cruise missiles, as some will be conducting training missions alongside the ones actually launching missiles. They will probably conduct launch maneuvers at around the same time as the Tu-160s.
As I mentioned before, the highest threat is to the western regions of Ukraine, where energy infrastructure will likely be targeted by Kh-101 cruise missiles. This especially includes Rivne Oblast, Volyn Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast, and Lviv Oblast. Itโs like that the eastern half of Ukraine will be targeted by ground-launched missiles (ballistics, Zircons, and Oniks) beforehand. Kalibr cruise missiles will also likely be launched from the Black Sea or Caspian Sea at some point.
5 Tu-160M strategic bombers have departed from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East and are flying west to their launch lines in western Vologda Oblast, which they are expected to reach in around 6 hours. It will take a little under 2 more hours after that for the missiles to enter Ukrainian airspace.
Communications between Olenya Airbase and strategic command and control in Moscow on combat frequencies have also been recorded. Itโs expected that up to 10 Tu-95MS strategic bombers will depart from Olenya Airbase in around 4.5 hours from now. Not all of these aircraft will launch Kh-101 cruise missiles, as some will be conducting training missions alongside the ones actually launching missiles. They will probably conduct launch maneuvers at around the same time as the Tu-160s.
As I mentioned before, the highest threat is to the western regions of Ukraine, where energy infrastructure will likely be targeted by Kh-101 cruise missiles. This especially includes Rivne Oblast, Volyn Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast, and Lviv Oblast. Itโs like that the eastern half of Ukraine will be targeted by ground-launched missiles (ballistics, Zircons, and Oniks) beforehand. Kalibr cruise missiles will also likely be launched from the Black Sea or Caspian Sea at some point.
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