Russia's 48-hour-long massive Geran drone attack on Ukraine has finally concluded.

Over 1,400 Geran-4/5 jet-drones and Geran-2 drones were used in total, attacking dozens of different towns and cities across 22 out of 24 regions (excluding Kherson Oblast due to the ceasefire). Of these 1,400 drones, around 1,000 Geran-2/Gerberas and 400 Geran-4/5s were used.

The main targets were electrical substations and railway infrastructure, as well as some airbases used by the Ukrainian Air Force. Widespread power outages occurred across large parts of Ukraine, including the cities of Dnipro and Kyiv, and the implementation of rolling blackouts has been intensified.

In the second half of the attack (the last 24 hours), explosions were heard in/near the following locations:

- Lviv City
- Hlyniany, Lviv Oblast
- Kremenets, Ternopil Oblast
- Dubno, Rivne Oblast
- Kostopil, Rivne Oblast
- Hoshcha, Rivne Oblast
- Rivne City
- Manevychi, Volyn Oblast
- Netishyn, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Slavuta, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Horodok, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Letychiv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Derazhnya, Khmelnytskyi Oblast
- Khmelnytskyi City
- Chernivtsi City
- Mohyliv-Podil's'kyi, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Turbiv, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Kozyatyn, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Lypovets, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Illintsi, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Vinnytsia City
- Chudniv, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Rudnya-Horodyshche, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Ozerne, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Korostyshiv, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Zhytomyr City
- Uman, Cherkasy Oblast
- Cherkasy City
- Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast
- Fastiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Bucha, Kyiv Oblast
- Irpin, Kyiv Oblast
- Brovary, Kyiv Oblast
- Kalynivka, Kyiv Oblast
- Multiple different districts of Kyiv City
- Vylkove, Odesa Oblast
- Usatove, Odesa Oblast
- Mayaky, Odesa Oblast
- Odesa City
- Dolyns'ka, Kirovohrad Oblast
- Baburka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Rozumivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Vilnyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Oril'ka, Kharkiv Oblast
- Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast
- Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast
- Rohan, Kharkiv Oblast
- Vasyshcheve, Kharkiv Oblast
- Kharkiv City
- Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast
- Hlobyne, Poltava Oblast
- Putyvl, Sumy Oblast
- Konotop, Sumy Oblast
- Shostka, Sumy Oblast
- Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast
- Nosivka, Chernihiv Oblast

The first half (24 hours) of the attack involved a little over 600 Geran-2/4/5 drones, and focused primarily on targeting energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as well as railway and energy infrastructure across Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, and Ternopil Oblast. There were also a large number of strikes on Kyiv and its surroundings, and heavy attacks on Sumy City and its surroundings. Southern Ukraine (Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts) were largely spared from attacks.

The second half (24 hours) of the attack involved around 700 Geran-2/4/5 drones, and continued to focus on energy and railway infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine, although strikes on Ternopil Oblast were swapped for heavier attacks on the neighbouring Rivne Oblast. Kyiv and its surroundings continued to see a lot of activity, although this decreased compared to the first half. Odesa Oblast was struck this time, and there was also more activity seen in Zaporizhzhia Oblast too. Strikes on energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts decreased compared to the first half.

In my opinion, this is a prelude to the upcoming combined missile and drone attack involving strategic aviation, which will likely occur sometime this week. It has helped exhaust Ukrainian air defence and aviation capabilities, and put further strain on the power grid, which will be hit even harder once the missiles start flying. I will make a separate post about the preparations for this upcoming missile attack in the near future.

(Note: The attached map shows only the strikes from the second half of the attack. You can find the map of the first half in the quoted post)

I do find it funny, though, that this massive attack involving over 1,400 long-range drones, hundreds of successful strikes, and almost every region of Ukraine hit was almost entirely ignored in the information space in favour for two Russian refineries being hit by a few Ukrainian drones each.

❗️The next Russian large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine involving strategic bombers is expected to take place in the next 48 hours:

A record number of Russian Tu-160M modernised strategic bombers are now equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles, and will take part in this upcoming attack. A 5th Tu-160M strategic bomber was equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Engels-2 Airbase yesterday, and subsequently flew back to Ukrainka Airbase in the evening.

Additionally, up to 10 Tu-95MS strategic bombers were stationed at Ukrainka Airbase. It's likely that not all of these are equipped with missiles, but they may all be airborne for the attack as some carry out training missions alongside the ones actually launching missiles. At least three of these 10 aircraft were redeployed to Olenya Airbase overnight, landing a short time ago. The rest are likely to follow during the day.

As for ground-launched missiles, Russia has been actively accumulating Iskander-M, Kn-23, and RM-48U modified S-400 ballistic missiles; as well as Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, at launch sites in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Voronezh Oblast, Rostov Oblast, and Crimea.

What missiles could be used?

- 50-70 Kh-101 cruise missiles - Up to 20 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles - Up to 10 Kn-23 ballistic missiles - Several Oniks-M supersonic cruise missiles - Several Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles - 8-24 Kalibr cruise missiles
- Several Iskander-K or Kh-59/69 cruise missiles - Several S8000 Banderol cruise missiles - Hundreds of Geran-2/4/5 and Gerbera drones.

Not all of these missiles listed above are expected to be used. These are just the maximums. It's possible that the attack will involve minimal ground-based missiles, and that they will be used in a separate attack days afterwards.

In my opinion, the Kh-101 cruise missiles and drones will target energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine, while any other missiles would target the eastern half of Ukraine as usual. Drones will likely be used to target energy, warehouse and railway infrastructure.

Additionally, the fact that Russia has waited until the end of the localised ceasefire in Kherson Oblast suggests that they may intend to use Kalibr cruise missiles, and have them fly over Kherson Oblast as they enter Ukrainian airspace. As a part of the earlier ceasefire, neither side could use the airspace over Kherson Oblast for missile and drone overflights, regardless of if they were targeting Kherson Oblast itself or not.

Due to changing light levels as we approach Winter, the attacks with strategic bombers will probably take place after 6am local time, as the Kh-101 cruise missiles require light for more effective guidance. This means that the attack may be split into two halves, with ground-launched and sea-launched missiles being used after midnight, and the air-launched missiles being used during the early morning hours as the sun rises.

The primary targets will probably be energy and railway infrastructure.

In my opinion, the attack will likely take place tonight, although this will become clearer closer to the time.

⚡️🇵🇸🇮🇱 TRT World: Israeli forces withdrew from Hebron after a 10-day siege, according to Governor Khaled Dudin, who said Palestinian security forces had taken control and displaced families could return.

Hebron Municipality said 4,969 Palestinians from 780 families were displaced and at least 15
homes and other structures demolished. Authorities also reported damage to infrastructure and disruption to education.

The operation began on October 23 following a shooting that killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded three others.

@wfwitness

A few seconds ago, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet tried to shoot down a Ukrainian Su-24/Mirage-2000 aircraft flying near Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast, with an R-37/77 air-to-air missile.

It's possible that the Ukrainian aircraft was going to launch Storm Shadow cruise missiles at border regions of Russia.

⚡️🇪🇹🇷🇺 Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has announced that Ethiopia has received 12 Russian-made Su-35 fighter jets, with four S-400 air defence systems expected to follow.

He described the delivery as a “first batch” and a milestone in strengthening national security and pre-emptive deterrence against aggression.

Abiy said President Vladimir Putin helped ensure delivery of the fourth-generation Su-35 jets a year ahead of schedule, under a prior agreement with the Russian government.

@wfwitness

⚡️🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israeli Army Radio: Political considerations have again shaped security decisions in Hebron, where a 10‑day operation described as a failure yielding only four weapons, with the political echelon refusing to withdraw before the elections and agreeing to do so only afterwards.

It described the 10‑day operation in Hebron, a city it called “full of weapons”, as a failure after only four weapons were seized.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz promised “the Jenin refugee camp model is coming to Hebron”, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the “successful and aggressive model” used in the refugee camps would be applied in Hebron.

@wfwitness

The IRGC is conducting ballistic missile test launches from near Hamedan, western Iran.

Small update on the upcoming combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine:

7 more Tu-95MS strategic bombers are redeploying from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East to Olenya and Engels-2 Airbases, supported by three IL-78 aerial refuelers. They will land at Olenya and Engels-2 Airbases in the next few hours. As I said earlier, all of these aircraft are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

5 Tu-160M strategic bombers remain ready at Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East. All five are equipped with 10-12 Kh-101 cruise missiles each. This, combined with the Tu-95s, could indicate over 70 Kh-101 cruise missiles will be launched.

These were the final preparations for the attack.

I still think it's likely that the attack will take place tonight, although this is not yet confirmed. I will update this again later on.

❗️Russia’s large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine will take place tonight.

5 Tu-160M strategic bombers have departed from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East and are flying west to their launch lines in western Vologda Oblast, which they are expected to reach in around 6 hours. It will take a little under 2 more hours after that for the missiles to enter Ukrainian airspace.

Communications between Olenya Airbase and strategic command and control in Moscow on combat frequencies have also been recorded. It’s expected that up to 10 Tu-95MS strategic bombers will depart from Olenya Airbase in around 4.5 hours from now. Not all of these aircraft will launch Kh-101 cruise missiles, as some will be conducting training missions alongside the ones actually launching missiles. They will probably conduct launch maneuvers at around the same time as the Tu-160s.

As I mentioned before, the highest threat is to the western regions of Ukraine, where energy infrastructure will likely be targeted by Kh-101 cruise missiles. This especially includes Rivne Oblast, Volyn Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast, and Lviv Oblast. It’s like that the eastern half of Ukraine will be targeted by ground-launched missiles (ballistics, Zircons, and Oniks) beforehand. Kalibr cruise missiles will also likely be launched from the Black Sea or Caspian Sea at some point.

The U.S. Air Force is carrying out new airstrikes against Iranian surface-to-air missile launchers on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier, repeated air defence activity was reported from the island, with the IRGC claiming that two U.S. MQM-170 and one MQ-9 "Reaper" drones were shot down. American airstrikes are probably targeting the same surface-to-air missile launchers used to target these drones.

Air defence activity is also reported at Omidiyeh Airbase in southwestern Iran.

This is not a resumption of the regional war btw.

That will happen after the midterms - in my opinion, later this month.

Three Russian Geran-5 K5-K jet-drones struck Cherkasy City a few minutes ago.

They impacted approximately in the area shown on the map.

The IRGC is attacking vessels in the Strait of Hormuz with anti-ship cruise missiles or drones.

Explosions were heard southwest of Qeshm Island.

Ahead of the missile attack, Russia has launched yet another large-scale attack on Ukraine using Geran-2 drones and Geran-4/5 jet-drones. Over 250 drones have been launched in the last 8 hours, over two-thirds of which were Geran-2 drones.

The primary target has been energy infrastructure, which will be hit even harder once the missiles start flying later tonight. Among the targets hit were the Dnіstrovska Hydroelectric Power Plant and Chernivtsi 330 kV electrical substation in Chernivtsi Oblast, as well as the Zhytomyr 330 kV substation - both in western Ukraine. Widespread power outages have affected both Zhytomyr and Chernivtsi Oblasts, with most of Zhytomyr City being left without electricity.

During this attack (which is still ongoing), explosions were heard in/near the following locations:

- Nadvirna, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast
- Kitsman, Chernivtsi Oblast
- Novodnistrovs'k, Chernivtsi Oblast
- Khmelnytskyi City
- Sharhorod, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Kryzhopil, Vinnytsia Oblast
- Vinnytsia City
- Tal'ne, Cherkasy Oblast
- Kaniv, Cherkasy Oblast
- Cherkasy City
- Kyiv City
- Pukhivka, Kyiv Oblast
- Vasylkiv, Kyiv Oblast
- Hlevakha, Kyiv Oblast
- Luhyny, Zhytomyr Oblast
- Zhytomyr City
- Manevychi, Volyn Oblast
- Poltava City
- Shakhtarske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Troyandy, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Vilnyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Nyzy, Sumy Oblast
- Sumy City

According to available information, ballistic missiles and other ground launched systems will be used in 1-2 hours from now, approximately between 1:30-2:30am local time.

Up to 30 missiles (RM-48U, Iskander-M, Oniks-M, & Zircon) could be used in total. The highest threat is to Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, and Poltava Oblast.

There is also the possibility of up to 10 Kn-23 ballistic missiles being launched from near Liski, Voronezh Oblast, in around this same timeframe.

Currently, approximately 40 Geran-2/4/5 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.