Forwarded from Ian's Intel
Forwarded from Walter Bloomberg
MOJTABA KHAMENEI IS ALIVE
Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency confirms that Mojtaba Khamenei — son of the late Supreme Leader and a top successor contender — survived a US-Israeli strike that killed several family members and sparked rumors of his death.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency confirms that Mojtaba Khamenei — son of the late Supreme Leader and a top successor contender — survived a US-Israeli strike that killed several family members and sparked rumors of his death.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Forwarded from infinityhedge
SUMMARY: DAY 4 OF STRIKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST: INFINITYHEDGE
Markets:
- Nasdaq 100 Futures extend drop to 2.5%, S&P 500 Futures fall 2%
- After Initial surge, Gold drops to $5,100
- Oil extends gain to 15%, DXY up 1%
- Brent Crude hits $85 — first time since July 2024
- EU gas prices surge by 90% following QatarEnergy halt
Military Action:
- Explosions/interceptions continued across Israel, Iran, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus and UAE, including at U.S. bases across the region — conflict getting closer to more energy facilities NOW
- Iran fired 1200+ drones and 300+ missiles
- Iran has launched 186 missiles and 812 drones at the UAE alone, To put it in context: in the entire 12-day Iran/Israel war, Iran fired 550 missiles & ~1k drones at Israel
- 6 Americans killed so far in action; additional losses expected
- Kuwait mistakenly shot down 3 American F-15 jets
- Strait of Hormuz effectively closed; 3k ships stuck in the region
- drones hit the US Embassy in Riyadh — Trump vowed retaliation
- Drones intercepted at UK military base in Cyprus
- Iran won't negotiate with the US, security chief said
- Macron says France will increase its arsenal of nuclear warheads
Numbers By Country:
- Kuwait: 178 ballistic missiles, 384 drones intercepted
- UAE: 169 of 182 missiles intercepted (rest landed in the sea); 645 drones intercepted, 44 hit within state territory
- Bahrain: 70 missiles, 76 drones intercepted
- Qatar: 101 of 104 missiles intercepted; 24 of 39 drones intercepted; 2 Iranian SU-24 bomber aircraft shot down
- Saudi Arabia: 8 drones intercepted near Riyadh & Al-Kharj; US Embassy hit by suspected Iranian drones
Cost Problem:
- Saturation attacks aim to overwhelm air defenses and drain interceptors — $20–50k Shahed drones vs. $4M interceptors put the US and partners on the wrong side of the cost curve
- Patriot missiles achieving over 90% interception rates — but at an unsustainable cost ratio
- Qatar's Patriot interceptor stocks will last just 4 days at current rate of use per BBG
- UAE has requested medium-range air defense assistance; Qatar seeking help countering drones specifically
- Both Iran & the US may run low on weapons within days or weeks — whoever lasts longer gains a serious advantage: infinity hedge
Energy Impact
- QatarEnergy, world's largest LNG producer halted production & also stopped downstream production including urea, polymers, methanol, and aluminum due to military attacks
- Saudi Aramco halted key Ras Tanura refinery after drones intercepted
- Aramco exploring plan to export oil via Red Sea to avoid Hormuz
- Russia's Rosatom stopped Operations in Iran
- Major fire at UAE's Fujairah oil-trading hub from falling drone debris
- Production suspended at Iraq's largest oil field, Shafaq
- The US has days — not weeks — to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; once trapped tankers fill up, regional oil producers will be forced to slow output, compounding the price spike (because their is no storage): infinityhedge
- IEA said ready to help stabilize oil market, noting that member countries hold over a billion barrels in emergency stockpiles
Diplomatic & Civilian:
- US State Department orders departure of non-emergency personnel and family members from Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE
- US also alert all Americans in 14 Middle East countries (including Israel) to leave, 300k people
- Emirates extends flight suspensions to and from Dubai until March 4; some travelers rerouting via Oman and Saudi Arabia
- Airlines globally have canceled 12,300+ flights as conflict spreads
Markets:
- Nasdaq 100 Futures extend drop to 2.5%, S&P 500 Futures fall 2%
- After Initial surge, Gold drops to $5,100
- Oil extends gain to 15%, DXY up 1%
- Brent Crude hits $85 — first time since July 2024
- EU gas prices surge by 90% following QatarEnergy halt
Military Action:
- Explosions/interceptions continued across Israel, Iran, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus and UAE, including at U.S. bases across the region — conflict getting closer to more energy facilities NOW
- Iran fired 1200+ drones and 300+ missiles
- Iran has launched 186 missiles and 812 drones at the UAE alone, To put it in context: in the entire 12-day Iran/Israel war, Iran fired 550 missiles & ~1k drones at Israel
- 6 Americans killed so far in action; additional losses expected
- Kuwait mistakenly shot down 3 American F-15 jets
- Strait of Hormuz effectively closed; 3k ships stuck in the region
- drones hit the US Embassy in Riyadh — Trump vowed retaliation
- Drones intercepted at UK military base in Cyprus
- Iran won't negotiate with the US, security chief said
- Macron says France will increase its arsenal of nuclear warheads
Numbers By Country:
- Kuwait: 178 ballistic missiles, 384 drones intercepted
- UAE: 169 of 182 missiles intercepted (rest landed in the sea); 645 drones intercepted, 44 hit within state territory
- Bahrain: 70 missiles, 76 drones intercepted
- Qatar: 101 of 104 missiles intercepted; 24 of 39 drones intercepted; 2 Iranian SU-24 bomber aircraft shot down
- Saudi Arabia: 8 drones intercepted near Riyadh & Al-Kharj; US Embassy hit by suspected Iranian drones
Cost Problem:
- Saturation attacks aim to overwhelm air defenses and drain interceptors — $20–50k Shahed drones vs. $4M interceptors put the US and partners on the wrong side of the cost curve
- Patriot missiles achieving over 90% interception rates — but at an unsustainable cost ratio
- Qatar's Patriot interceptor stocks will last just 4 days at current rate of use per BBG
- UAE has requested medium-range air defense assistance; Qatar seeking help countering drones specifically
- Both Iran & the US may run low on weapons within days or weeks — whoever lasts longer gains a serious advantage: infinity hedge
Energy Impact
- QatarEnergy, world's largest LNG producer halted production & also stopped downstream production including urea, polymers, methanol, and aluminum due to military attacks
- Saudi Aramco halted key Ras Tanura refinery after drones intercepted
- Aramco exploring plan to export oil via Red Sea to avoid Hormuz
- Russia's Rosatom stopped Operations in Iran
- Major fire at UAE's Fujairah oil-trading hub from falling drone debris
- Production suspended at Iraq's largest oil field, Shafaq
- The US has days — not weeks — to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; once trapped tankers fill up, regional oil producers will be forced to slow output, compounding the price spike (because their is no storage): infinityhedge
- IEA said ready to help stabilize oil market, noting that member countries hold over a billion barrels in emergency stockpiles
Diplomatic & Civilian:
- US State Department orders departure of non-emergency personnel and family members from Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE
- US also alert all Americans in 14 Middle East countries (including Israel) to leave, 300k people
- Emirates extends flight suspensions to and from Dubai until March 4; some travelers rerouting via Oman and Saudi Arabia
- Airlines globally have canceled 12,300+ flights as conflict spreads
Forwarded from 종명이의 딸깍
Forwarded from infinityhedge
SOUTH KOREA’S KOSPI INDEX CLOSES 12% LOWER, BIGGEST LOSS ON RECORD: INFINITYHEDGE
Forwarded from 카이에 de market
외인 대략 오후 2시 이후부터
- 코스피 선물 급격히 순매수 전환(최종 2조 대량 순매수)
- 코스피 풋옵션 대량(879억) 순매도
- 코스피, 코스닥 최종 순매수 종료
- 특히 파생시장만 놓고보면 '오늘 바닥이다'에 강한 베팅한 것처럼 보임
- 코스피 선물 급격히 순매수 전환(최종 2조 대량 순매수)
- 코스피 풋옵션 대량(879억) 순매도
- 코스피, 코스닥 최종 순매수 종료
- 특히 파생시장만 놓고보면 '오늘 바닥이다'에 강한 베팅한 것처럼 보임
Forwarded from Ian's Intel
Forwarded from 方程式新闻 BWEnews
Binance EN: Binance Will List Fabric Protocol (ROBO) with Seed Tag Applied
币安重要公告: 币安将上线 Fabric Protocol (ROBO)，并施加种子标签
$ROBO MarketCap: $104M
(Auto match could be wrong, 自动匹配可能不准确)
————————————
2026-03-04 21:13:14
source: https://cache.bwe-ws.com/bn-1026
币安重要公告: 币安将上线 Fabric Protocol (ROBO)，并施加种子标签
$ROBO MarketCap: $104M
(Auto match could be wrong, 自动匹配可能不准确)
————————————
2026-03-04 21:13:14
source: https://cache.bwe-ws.com/bn-1026
Forwarded from Walter Bloomberg
IRAN COULD DISRUPT HORMUZ FOR MONTHS
Iran could keep the Strait of Hormuz unstable for months using drones, even as its missile supplies face limits.
Tehran has launched hundreds of missiles and over 1,000 drones, with the capacity to produce up to 10,000 drones monthly. While https://t.co/Vl0gQw3NQS
(@WalterBloomberg)
Iran could keep the Strait of Hormuz unstable for months using drones, even as its missile supplies face limits.
Tehran has launched hundreds of missiles and over 1,000 drones, with the capacity to produce up to 10,000 drones monthly. While https://t.co/Vl0gQw3NQS
(@WalterBloomberg)
Forwarded from Ian's Intel
ETF Flows: 04 Mar 2026
🟢 Bitcoin ETFs: $461.9M net inflows
🟢 Ethereum ETFs: $169.4M net inflows
🟢 Solana ETFs: $19.1M net inflows
🟢 Bitcoin ETFs: $461.9M net inflows
🟢 Ethereum ETFs: $169.4M net inflows
🟢 Solana ETFs: $19.1M net inflows
Forwarded from 도랏맨
이란은 휴전을 원한다
이란은 왜 이스라엘과 미군기지보다 UAE, 카타르, 쿠웨이트에 더 많은 미사일/드론을 발사했을까?
이란은 카타르 LNG 시설 피격, 바레인 공항 타격, UAE 두바이 화재, 쿠웨이트 유조선 폭발, 사우디 리야드 미 대사관 피격, 오만 유조선 공격, 요르단 영공 침범, 키프로스 영국 기지 타격, 아제르바이잔 공항 타격 등 수많은 공격을 한 이유가 무엇일까?
이란이 노리는 것은 혼란의 극대화를 통한 빠른 휴전이다
이란의 IRGC(이슬람 혁명수비대)는 이란 내에서 엄청난 이권을 가진 그룹이다. IRGC는 휴전으로 제재완화가 이어지면 엄청난 경제적이득을 얻을 수 있다.
그러나 역설적으로 IRGC가 존속할 수 있는 것은 '혁명수호'와 '하메네이에 대한 복수'때문이다. 그래서 IRGC는 절대로 항복을 할 수는 없다. 그래서 최대한 많은 주변국들을 자극하고, 호르무즈 해협에 대한 봉쇄를 이어나가고 있는 것이다.
하지만 오히려 호르무즈 해협에 기뢰를 깔거나, 해협을 막아버리지 않는 이유 역시 '빠른 휴전'을 원해서이다. (협상되면 바로 열어주기 위함)
결과적으로는 트럼프와 이란은 '핵무기화 불가능한 수준으로의 제한' 혹은 'JCPOA 2.0' + '탄도미사일 제한'정도로 협의하지 않을까? 이란과 IRGC도 트럼프가 '핵무기' 관련 이슈를 제외하고는 협상이 불가능하다는 것을 알고 있을 것이기 때문
트럼프는 하메네이 정권 축출 + 이란의 핵무기 해결 + 이란의 군사력 소진으로 이스라엘의 안전 보장(단기)를 얻을 수 있다.
이란과 IRGC는 최대한 많은 타격으로 인한 체면치레(하메네이 복수 성공) + 경제 제재 해소로 원유 디스카운트 해소(수익증가) + 동결 자산 (1천억달러 이상으로 추정)
이 시나리오대로면 생각보다 빠르게 마무리 될 수 있다고 본다.
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