Above 470 script will be in T+1 from 28/9/22☝🏻 @ALLiESFiN

#STOCKLENDING OFFER #GUJARATGAS #NSE RS 14 PER SHARE.
offer valid till Buyer available.
LEND YOUR IDLE STOCK & EARN DIVIDENDS AS WELL AS LENDING CREDITS.
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Mkt. Updates :

SGX Nifty +215 pts (17053) from last trade 16838 ,

Nikkei +243 pts ,
Hangseng +319 pts ,


Dow +548.75 pts ,Nsdq +222.13 pts, S&P
+71.75 pts , Bovespa +74 pts , Ftse +20 pts , Dax +43 pts , Cac +11 pts , Crude @ $81.71 brl (-0.44), Brent @ $89.32 brl (+0.00) , Gold @ 1664.90 (-5.10), Silver @ $18.845 (-0.03), Euro @ $0.9705, JPY @ $144.39, INR @ 81.405

US GOVT. 10-YEAR YIELD : 3.76%

Today's Corporate Action, 29 Sep Ex Date :

ALFAVIO
Dividend - Rs. - 0.0500
THAMBBI
E.G.M.


Today's Key Results/Board Meetings, 29-Sep-22 :

ANJANIFOODS
Stock Split
BSELINFRA
General
GOACARBON
Right Issue of Equity Shares;General
INDINFR
General
JAINCO
General
KAARYAFSL
General
MPL
General


SEC. IN F&O BAN FOR, 29 SEP, 2022 :

1. IDEA

ADDITION : NIL
DELETION : ZEEL

India Appoints New Defense Chief in Push to Modernize Military

• India Extends Free Food Plan for 3 Months, to Spend $5.5 Billion

• India August Steel Consumption Rose 13% on Year to 9.3M Tons

• India Needs to Invest $10 Billion in Battery Cells for EV Demand

• Indian Regulator Tightens Credit Enhancement Rating Norms

• Ontario Teachers’ Fund to Explore India Energy Storage Venture

• India to Allow 17,000 Tons/Yr of Areca Nut Import from Bhutan

• Global Funds Sell Net INR27.7B of India Stocks on Wednesday: NSE

o Domestic funds buy net 25.4b rupees of stocks

• Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR): Totalenergies not sure of keeping 20% stake

• Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL): Gets NTPC order for Odisha Thermal Power project

• Edelweiss Financial (EDEL) Raises Edelweiss Tokio Life stake to 75.1%

• FSN E-Commerce Ventures (NYKAA): Meeting on Oct. 3 to consider issuance of Free Shares to shareholders

• S H Kelkar & Co. (SHKL): Says unit Keva Europe BV acquired 19% stake in Provier Beheer BV, raises holding to 81%; balance will be acquired in 2 yrs; Also unit in Italy buys remaining 30% stake in Nova Fragrance

o Keva Construction Pvt. sold 1.11m shares of SHKL to Keva Investment Partners at INR141.41/share: NSE Bulk Deal

• Titan Co (TTAN): India Chain Gold Retailers’ Market Share to Pass 40% in 5 Years

Business News Headlines

Economic Times :

Ø Dish TV shareholders reject four resolutions including adoption of financial statements for FY21 & FY22

Ø Godrej Properties acquires seven-acre land in Bengaluru’s Indiranagar extension

Ø Reliance Industries shelves plan for separate ecommerce marketplace for third-party sellers

Ø Larsen & Toubro subsidiary inks pact to transfer 15 acres of land to Brookfield

Ø European business chill may hurt Indian companies, too

Ø Auto dealers to clock their fastest revenue growth in three fiscals, says Crisil

Ø Airtel Payments Bank to install 1.5 lakh micro ATMs this fiscal

Ø Edelweiss Financial Services mulls raising up to Rs 400 crore

Ø Government aims to control natural gas prices to tame inflation, sources say

Ø FM asks banks to fill backlog vacancies, boost SC coverage in all schemes

Ø Indian fertiliser firms sign MoU with Canada's Canpotex

Ø Hindustan Copper to increase mine production, says MD


Buisness Standard :

Ø Ambuja Cements signs non-dealing pact with lenders on ACC stake

Ø Govt stops sale of Central Electronics to Nandal Finance over legal issue

Ø India rules out tax policy changes for inclusion of bonds in global indices

Ø India's Li-ion battery demand to grow to 70 GWh by 2030, says report

Ø SAIL records turnover of over Rs 1 trn in FY22, posts 50% rise

Ø Centre to relax rules, fast-track new measures for oil & gas exploration

Ø Export of rice consignments with limited quantity of broken rice allowed

Ø New funding mechanism takes wing for HNIs bidding Rs 2-10 lakh in an IPO

Ø Torrent group to make Rs 2,900-cr bid for Reliance Nippon Life Insurance

Ø From October, no online MF transactions with wrong phone numbers: CAMS


Financial Express :

Ø Cement demand likely to be on track albeit cost pressure, says N Srinivasan, MD, India Cements

Ø India doesn’t need so many public sector banks, says former SBI

Ø Dish TV shareholders reject 4 resolutions including adoption of financial statements for FY21 & FY22

Ø Transport Corp’s Vineet Agarwal bullish on both online and offline sales amid 2022 festivities

Ø Lupin launches generic Suprep Bowel Prep Kit in United States

Ø Former RBI deputy governor, Zomato chairman join BharatPe board

Ø Exide’s Li-ion cell unit likely to be ready in 2.5 yrs

Ø Offline food, grocery retailers to see 20% revenue growth

Ø Godrej Properties buys 7-acre land in Bengaluru to build homes; eyes Rs 750 crore revenue

India Daybook – Stocks in News


* Nykaa:* Board meeting on October 3 to consider issuance of Bonus shares (Positive)

Agarwal Industrial: Ashish Kacholia acquired 2 lakh equity shares or 1.38 percent stake (Positive)

Gensol Engineering: The company said the board has approved the preferential allotment of 12,81,993 equity shares (Positive)

Blue Dart: The company has announced average shipment price increase of 9.6 percent for 2023. (Positive)

Supriya Lifescience: The company has received Certification of Suitability for Diphenhydramine hydrochloride, API in anti-histamine therapy (Positive)

S H Kelkar: Subsidiary Keva Europe BV has acquired 19 percent equity stake in Netherlands-based Provier Beheer BV (Positive)

Genesys International: The company announced collaboration with Bentley Systems to provide 3D mapping capabilities for major cities across India (Positive)

Ramco Cement: Commissioning of 5th Integrated Cement Plant at Kolumigundla, Andhra Pradesh. (Positive)

Dishman Carbogen: Subsidiary successfully completed the Swissmedic inspection of its facility (Positive)

Bayer Crop: Approved sale of Environmental Science Business which offers solutions to control pests, diseases and weeds in non-agricultural areas (Positive)

Chemcon: Commenced commercial production of additional capacity of 2400 MTPA (Positive)

Steel Companies: India August Steel Consumption Rose 13% on Year to 9.3M Tons. (Positive)

BHEL: Gets NTPC order for Odisha Thermal Power project. (Positive)

Titan: India Chain Gold Retailers’ Market Share to Pass 40% in 5 Years (Positive)

Essar Shipping: The company said the Board of Directors approved the appointment of Vipin Jain as Chief Financial Officer of the company. (Neutral)

ITI: ITI has received Rs 80 crore against allotment of shares to the Government of India (Neutral)

Anupam Rasayan: The company has opened its qualified institutional placement issue on September 28 (Neutral)

Andhra Paper: Annual Outage (maintenance) planned from Oct 11 to Oct 22 in the manufacturing facility located in Andhra Pradesh (Neutral)

JSW Ispat: Approved appointment of Kiran Arvindakshan Menon as CFO and KMP wef 29 Sept (Neutral)

Torrent Pharma: USFDA issued form 483 with 3 observations for Gujarat plant (Neutral)

Varroc Eng: K Mahendra Kumar Joins as Global CFO (Neutral)

Vedanta’s: Zambia Mine Liquidator Hires RMB as Financial Adviser (Neutral)

Adani Green Energy: Totalenergies not sure of keeping 20% stake (Neutral)

Vedanta: Vedanta, Zambia Unit’s Liquidator to Adjourn Disputes for 6 Mos (Neutral)

Can Fin Homes: PGIM India Mutual Fund sold 10 lakh equity shares or 0.75 percent stake in the company

The Theory of Interest Rate Parity says

If the interest rate in:

Country 1 = 2%

Country 2 = 6%


You can borrow money from country 1 at 2% and invest it in country 2 at 6% and make a 4% risk-free return (arbitrage) on borrowed money


if such a situation exists, every last capital in the world would exploit this situation,

this will increase the demand for currency 1 and increase the supply of currency 2,

thus, currency 1 must appreciate and currency 2 must depreciate until this 4% gap is fully exploited,

In other words, currency 2 must depreciate by 4% wrt currency 1


sounds logical, right?

but it doesn't always work linearly.

Telegram.me/AlliesFin

2021

USA interest Rate: 1%

India Interest Rate: 5%

USD/INR: 75


2022

USA interest Rate: 4%

India Interest Rate: 6%

USD/INR: 82



The interest rate differential has gone from 4% to just 2%

but INR has depreciated by 9%

shouldn't INR depreciate less wrt USD, since the interest rate parity has narrowed now?


Not really,

One major reason why INR is depreciating so rapidly is a rapid flow of USD out of India,



Think about this:

If Indian equity markets grow by 12%, US investors don't make 12% returns

they make: 12% (minus) currency loss

so if INR depreciates by 4%

they only make 8% return.


compare this to an interest rate of 4% in the US today

and PE ratio of 20+ in India (highest among its peers)

wouldn't you be much better off just parking the money in your USD bank account,

then invest in a foreign country trading at high valuations (vs emerging market peers) with its own set of economic risks and currency risks?

Is it worth the trouble for an extra 4% return in the best-case scenario?

I don't think so.



--

Now put yourself in the shoes of a US investor,

if you invested money in Indian Equities in 2021

equity returns : 0%
currency depreciation: 9%

total return: -9%


Interest Rates have risen by 3-4% in the western world since 2021

US govt bonds today are yielding 4%

UK govt bonds are yielding 5%


why would anyone sitting in US & UK take the additional risk of investing in a foreign economy (trading at 20-year high valuations) for just a 3-4% extra return?


--

So what is the solution?

RBI can increase Indian interest rates to increase the interest differential again,


but guess what?

this will increase Indian bank FD rates, Govt bond yields, even liquid MFs yields will increase to 7% or more

Given the high valuations of our Equity markets,

domestic investors will start shifting money from Equity to Debt (which is now giving 2% more returns than just a year ago)

Another negative for Indian equity markets.



--

An increasing cost of capital is never good for Equities.

India has a good long-term story, but in the short to mid-term if money keeps flowing out of Equities, they are bound to correct, it's only a matter of time.

Here's what you Learn

☝️ Wealth Creation through Equity
✌️Goal based Investment approach
🤟How to Over Come Wrong Financial Decisions

Online Presentation
Sat 01 Oct 2022
11 am to 12 noon

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Kindly note that w.e.f.30-09-2022, List of Scrips of BSE/NSE will be transferred from Settlement Cycle T+2 to T+1. Hence BTST (Inter Settlement) in these Scrips will not be allowed from Trade date-T+2-29-09-2022 to Trade date-T+1-30-09-2022 for one day only because payin of both Settlement on same day @10.30 a.m. & payout @12.30 p.m. @ALLIESFIN

Multiple Events Tomorrow:
@AlliesFin
1. RBI Policy
2. Putin Speech
3. FTSE Rebalancing
4. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly/Half Yearly closing

India VIX melts down to 21. If this drops below 20 expect good bounceback in market.

29/9/2022
T.me/AlliesFin
BSE:-188(56409)
NSE:-40(16818)
MID:+75(24512)
SML:+176(28047)
*FII|FPI:-3599Cr*
*DII:+3161Cr*
B.Crude: 89
Gold$:1650=INR: 49850
Silver: 56075
$/Rs: 81.86
6.54 : 2032 G-Sec: 7.38
NSE PE: 20.08

MKT UPDATES :

SGX Nifty -100 pts (16750) from last trade 16850 ,

Nikkei -373 pts ,
Hangseng +1 pt ,
Around @ 6.52am .

Dow -458.13 pts ,Nsdq -314.13 pts, S&P
-78.57 pts , Bovespa -786 pts , Ftse -123 pts , Dax -207 pts , Cac -88 pts , Crude @ $81.67 brl (+0.44), Brent @ $88.49 brl (+0.00) , Gold @ 1672.20 (+3.60), Silver @ $18.865 (+0.15), Euro @ $0.983, JPY @ $144.42, INR @ 81.465


*US GOVT. 10-YEAR YIELD : 3.78%*


*Today's Corporate Action, 30 Sep Ex Date :*

MAXIMUS
Stock  Split From Rs.10/- to Rs.1/-


*Today's Key Results/Board Meetings, 30-Sep-22 :*

HERITGFOOD
Right Issue of Equity Shares;General
INTETHR
A.G.M.   
MDRNSTL
Quarterly Results  
NAYSAA
A.G.M.   
SAGARSOFT
Quarterly Results  
SCANPRO
A.G.M.   


*SEC. IN F&O BAN FOR*
*30-Sep-22*

NIL


*Today's Alert :*

*RBI to Conduct Auction of GOI BONDS for INR 330 Billion*

*Business News Headlines*

*Economic Times :*

Ø Tata Industries to hive some startup businesses off to Tata Digital

Ø NSE index rejig to bring inflows of up to $189 million

Ø Sebi rolls out framework for credit rating agencies

Ø IT hardware PLI purse may zoom 2.5 times to Rs 19,000 crore

Ø Cognizant will focus on digital, stay away from “uneconomic” deals

Ø HCL acquires majority stake in vernacular edtech platform GUVI

Ø Sebi set to allow confidential pre-filing of IPO documents

Ø Govt to borrow Rs 5.92 lakh cr in H2 of FY23; plans to raise Rs 16,000 cr via sovereign green bonds

Ø Government aims to control natural gas prices to tame inflation, sources say

Ø Merger between LIC MF and IDBI MF in advanced stage: LIC Mutual Fund MD

Ø SBI files 'insolvency petition' against Jaiprakash Associates in NCLT

Ø Govt hikes interest rate on small savings schemes for Q3 of FY23


*Buisness Standard :*

Ø Reliance Retail's fashion-lifestyle store AZORTE to take on Zara, Mango

Ø ICICI Pru, 14 insurance firms evaded Rs 824 crore input tax credit

Ø Retail IPO applications down by over 50% in H1FY23, shows data

Ø India's Li-ion battery demand to grow to 70 GWh by 2030, says report

Ø Blue Dart Express' volume growth momentum likely to sustain in FY23

Ø Centre to relax rules, fast-track new measures for oil & gas exploration

Ø Export of rice consignments with limited quantity of broken rice allowed

Ø New funding mechanism takes wing for HNIs bidding Rs 2-10 lakh in an IPO

Ø Torrent group to make Rs 2,900-cr bid for Reliance Nippon Life Insurance

Ø Adani Enterprises secures funds to build Ganga Expressway at Rs 23,000 cr


*Financial Express :*

Ø Russia to annex seized Ukrainian regions: Putin to sign documents in grand ceremony tomorrow

Ø IPO mop-up plunges 32 pc to Rs 35,456 crore in H1: Report

Ø Sebi bans The Apex Global, its proprietor from markets for 4 years

Ø Transport Corp’s Vineet Agarwal bullish on both online and offline sales amid 2022 festivities

Ø Lupin launches generic Suprep Bowel Prep Kit in United States

Ø Former RBI deputy governor, Zomato chairman join BharatPe board

Ø Indifi disbursed loans valuing Rs 2800 crs to more than 30,000 MSMEs

Ø Offline food, grocery retailers to see 20% revenue growth

Ø Nykaa board to meet on October 3 to consider bonus share issuance

*September Auto Sales Estimates YoY_01.10.2022:*

*Ashok Leyland:* 155000 units versus 9533 units ( *Up 33.0%* )

*Tata Motors:* 82800 units versus 59156 units ( *Up 40.0%* )

*M&M Tractor:* 40500 units versus 40331 units ( *Up 0.4%* )

*M&M Auto:* 63600 units versus 28112 units ( *Up 126.0%* )

*Maruti:* 178500 units versus 86380 units ( *Up 106.0%* )

*Hero Motocorp:* 500000 units versus 530346 units ( *Down 6.0%* )

*TVS Motors:* 375000 units versus 347156 units ( *Up 8.0%* )

*Bajaj Auto:* 423000 units versus 390000 units ( *Up 8.5%* )

*Eicher Motors RE:* 77000 units versus 33529 units ( *Up 130.0%* )

*Escorts:* 9521 units versus 8816 units ( *Up 8.0%* )

Investors Meetings on September 30

Rossari Biotech: Officials of the company will attend Equirus Virtual Annual Conference.

Bharat Forge: Officials of the company will meet ICICI Prudential AMC.

Safari Industries (India): Officials of the company will meet IDFC Mutual Fund, and Mirae Asset Mutual Fund.

Gati: Officials of the company will meet Ambika Fincap, and Habrok Capital Management LLP.

Phoenix Mills: Officials of the company will interact with Mondrian Investment Partners.

Indian Energy Exchange: Officials of the company will interact with Ethos Investment Management.

Escorts Kubota: Officials of the company will interact with Toona Tree Capital.

Polycab India: Officials of the company will meet BlackRock Asia, Kotak Offshore, Nippon Offshore, and Wellington Management in Singapore.

Prudent Corporate Advisory Services: Officials of the company will meet Marcellus Investment Managers, and B&K Securities.

Meghmani Organics: Officials of the company will meet DAM Capital.

• India’s rate-setting panel headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das may raise the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.90%, according to 34 of 46 economists in a Bloomberg survey. 11 predict a 35 basis points hike and one for a 25 basis points increase.
o India Set for Third Half-Point Hike as Rupee Slumps: Guide
• UK Working ‘Intensely’ with India on Free Trade Agreement
• Modi Government Keeps Second-Half Borrowings Largely Unchanged
o India to Borrow INR5.92T in Fiscal Second Half; Est. INR6T
• India’s Current Account Deficit Swells to Near Decade High
o April-June Current Account Deficit $23.90B; Est. -$30.80B
• India Slightly Reduces Annual Bond Sale Goal on Buoyant Revenue
o India Plans Debut Green Bonds to Raise $2 Billion by March
o India to Sell 2.86T Rupees of T-Bills Oct.-Dec.: DEA
• CCI approves Buying Assets of Essar Group by ArcelorMittal Nippon
• India Postpones Six Airbag Rule for Cars Despite Deadliest Roads
• SURVEY: India Economy to Expand 6.2% in 3Q22; Prior +6.5%
• Indian Stocks Drop for Seventh Day as Risk-Off Grips Markets
• India Nifty Faces 30% Downside Risk on Bond Mean Reversal: CLSA
• India Foreign Travel Spending Up 195% in 2Q Y/Y
• Global Funds Sell Net INR36B of India Stocks on Thursday: NSE
o Domestic funds buy net 31.6b rupees of stocks
• Defence minister visits forward areas in Arunachal, interacts with troops at the LAC: PTI
• Zee-Sony merger hearing inconclusive Both Zee and Sony asked to make written submissions: CNBC- TV18
• Govt upgrades Mukesh Ambani’s security cover to Z plus: PTI
• 4:00pm: India Fiscal Deficit in rupees for April-Aug., prior -11,040
• 5:30pm: August Eight Infrastructure Industries, prior 4.5%
• 10am: RBI Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement for 2022-23
o RBI Benchmark Repurchase Rate, Est. 5.90% (prior 5.40%)
o RBI Cash Reserve Ratio Est. 4.50% (prior 4.50%)
• RBI to release weekly FX, bank credit data
• Adani Power (ADANI): CCI approves co.’s acquisition of share of Diliigent Power and DB Power: PIB
• Hero MotoCorp (HMCL): To Invest $60 Million in Zero Motorcycles for EVs
• Life Insurance Corp (LICI): Raises Deepak Nitrite holding to 5.028% from 4.977%
• Lupin (LPC): Gets U.S. FDA ANDA approval for Mirabegron extended- release tablet, a generic of Myrbetriq tablets
• Punjab National Bank (PNB): To sell entire 10% stake in ARCIL by Dec. 31 at an agreed price

RBI Monitory Policy Snapshot 30-09-2022

1) Repo Rate increased by 50 BPS at 5.90%
2) Inflation is projection at 5.7% in 2022-23
3) SDF stands adjusted at 5.65%
4) Stance - Withdrawal of Accommodation