116.000 on USDJPY approaching, may have looked unrealistic back in June but it certainly doesn’t now, momentum kicking in thanks to a combination of FED tightening cycle starting (tapering in November) and global growth optimism sentiment reigniting, the former bullish USD while the latter bearish JPY, both flows should continue

EURUSD targeting 1.14000…

It’s not a surprise that the FED will start tapering in November, with that on the agenda plus rate hikes being speculated as soon as next year we can’t but be EURUSD bears, expecting 1.14000 to trade in November

Watch next week’s FOMC very carefully

EURUSD ongoing, we continue to expect 1.14000 to be reached before the end of the month, the FED delivered the long awaited taper announcement yesterday which keeps us well bearish biased on the pair at least until 1.14000 is met, also notice how the POC has shifted lower which suggests the pair is ready for further downside

S&P500 year end target of 4700 reached…

Learn to trade less but smart with the right minds around you, shut the noise from the average trading guru out there and focus on the right content, it’s the key to long term consistency and sustainability, have a great weekend everybody

EURUSD almost to target with some decent momentum thanks to a beat in CPI on Wednesday which makes a hawkish FED even more likely going forward, classic monetary policy divergence between the FED and ECB

EURUSD exceeding expectations, already trading at 1.12800, we keep a long term bearish bias here as the FED vs ECB monetary policy divergence is just getting wider

A clear hint has been sent a couple of days ago from FED’s vice chair (Clarida) mentioning how it may be appropriate to discuss increasing the tapering pace in the upcoming meetings, hence while the FED continues to turn more and more hawkish the ECB remains on a whole different policy, shorting high ones on EURUSD continues to be one of our trades going forward, see chart above for technical details

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Now it’s time to monitor EURUSD, didn’t reach our first selling zone but Powell just hinted (and confirmed our expectations) that the FED is likely going to announce a faster tapering pace at the December’s FOMC, we continue to favor EURUSD downside towards 1.10000 and we will position accordingly

EURUSD the hints are all there, the FED will double the taper pace at their next meeting, EURUSD will reach 1.10000 before the end of the month OR early in January

Keep it simple, the “don’t fight the FED” works both ways, don’t fight a dovish FED but neither a hawkish one, listen to their hints, don’t try to outsmart them

It’s FOMC week, interesting responses on the poll, you should know already our consensus from the EURUSD above, keep it disciplined and don’t fight the FED

EURUSD choppy but ongoing, the double taper has been officialized with the FOMC on Wednesday and now we would expect the FED to lift off rates in March, yes in March, that’s enough for us to continue to expect 1.10000 either in the upcoming weeks or (most likely) early in January, keep it simple and have a great weekend everybody

Another powerful year for the markets, 2021 saw a great monetary policy shift back towards “neutral” from the FED and most G10 central banks, that shift is going to continue and all clues we need for Q1 2022 are there in plain sight, strong hawkish monetary policies and rate hikes will dominate the news flow, we are tracking a lot of opportunities for January and monetary policies divergences will be back in fashion, with obviously the FED (as always) dictating sentiment, we expect a rate hike in March and the market should catch up with that sentiment in early January.

A warm thank you and a Happy new year from the BeSomebodyFX Team

EURUSD continues to accumulate but the macro bias is clear…

We continue to expect 1.10000 to be reached in January tho obviously not in a straight line, keep it smart

Yesterday’s FOMC (minutes) hits the sweet spot for the FED’s hawkish narrative, on top of a rate hike in March the FED will also embark in QT (Quantitative Tightening) at any time after the first rate hike, that’s all we need to know

As of now EURUSD continues to chop into a large sideways range but we expect it to resolve to the downside sooner than later and move towards the 1.10000 targeted level, keep it smart

Wrong on EURUSD for the time being, even tho the macro picture hasn't changed, the current structure shows a large corrective pattern that may take a while to unfold lower, it’s clear that the USD bullish thesis is too crowded and is being squeezed

We will reengage with EURUSD shorts later on once price shows us more intention to push lower with, for instance, a break below the corrective flag structure

We will start to engage with EURUSD shorts above 1.15000 (see technical zone in the chart above) this recent squeeze higher is more position driven (USD long side too crowded) than macro driven and we would expect a resumption lower once sentiment rebalances

The FED is about to conclude the largest QE program ever created, on top of that, unlike any other time, it’s going to embark in QT (the opposite of QE) just a few months after, and all while also hiking rates, we can’t but be EURUSD bears

Watch the situation in Ukraine carefully, it’s most likely going to be the next big catalyst for some volatility

In other words, this is an environment to gradually lean into safe havens, geopolitical tensions heating up in Ukraine, FED about to finish QE and start hiking right away, all while global growth is slowing down, just be mindful of what the macro environment is signaling