There are flows behind this market that are moving things.

And you must know what they are!

Full post on Substack:

https://besomebodyfx.substack.com/p/how-further

Don’t fall behind!

EURUSD, classic Trump mixing things up.

A few deescalatory comments have hit the market.

But talk is cheap.

And we’ve yet to see some real deescalation.

So we’re still short EURUSD.

Take a view, don’t overreact to every headline.

And most of all…

Be humble in this market.

There is NO way to know the next geopolitical headline with certainty.

Keep it small, fixed risk, and let the events play out!

You can memorize every technical pattern.

You can draw every support and resistance line.

But if you don’t understand this underlying force…

You’ll always be one step behind the market.

Here's what you need to know:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmMpVVs_42Y

(this video is just 14 minutes long, but it’s worth more than most of the paid education out there, seriously)

EURUSD, still expecting further downside.

Until we see a real and concrete geopolitical deescalation...

Energy prices will stay elevated.

And that will keep EURUSD heavy.

Have a great weekend everybody!

Guess what happens to the Dollar if energy prices keep rising?

Don’t treat OIL like it only matters if you trade… OIL.

OIL matters for everything right now!

There’s a precise method to know if a trend will continue or not.

And most traders never learn it.

NEW YouTube VIDEO published:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05EYmMMpIYQ

This will completely change the way you read trends!

EURUSD, moving stop loss at breakeven.

This decides the next trend!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9kY9wmqS-c

(If you want to have a macro INFORMED opinion on the Dollar in this context, don’t miss a second of the video)

1. Geopolitics keep OIL prices high
2. High OIL prices lift inflation expectations
3. High inflation risks lift yields and rates
4. Higher rates force capital into the USD

And so, Dollar supported!

As long as energy prices stay high…

Expect EURUSD to break to new lows.

EURUSD, we've closed the second entry at breakeven too.

No clarity from the geopolitical news flow right now.

Waiting to see what we get over the next 24h with Trump's deadline on Iran approaching.

Ceasefire reached!

For context, we took profit on the S&P500 already.

The geopolitical context is taking the wrong turn again!

There’s a layer to fundamental analysis that most traders never get shown.

And so I put together this 1h 14m masterclass to change that!

All the knowledge you need is now public.

Take advantage of it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXNMuSio-lo

(FREE YouTube masterclass in REAL fundamental analysis)

We are long AUDCHF.

1. RBA hawkish, and likely to hike further ahead
2. SNB the most dovish central bank
3. Geopolitics leaning “optimistic” right now (risk on)
4. Positive carry trade for a medium term hold
5. Technical trigger with the break of market structure

Target 0.5760

AUDCHF, structure developing.

Looking for something like this to form.

AUDCHF, taking shape.

After enough time in the market, you start to ditch the textbook theory.

10 years of fundamental analysis have taught me how to cut through the nonsense and focus on what’s really tradable.

And for that… this is the most important video I’ve made on fundamentals!

Not because it covers everything, but because it covers the pillars that actually change how you interpret fundamentals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hvZAfRZZ6k

10 years of knowledge compressed into 20 minutes!

AUDCHF, moving stop loss at breakeven.

Here’s the current AUDCHF narrative in plain English:

1. Inflation in Australia is still too sticky
2. The RBA needs to stay hawkish
3. Markets are pricing another hike in May

The CHF?

The Swiss National Bank is trying to do the exact opposite since they’re stuck in a deflationary spiral.

This is a policy divergence.

I’ve just posted more context about it on Substack:

https://besomebodyfx.substack.com/p/policy-divergences-are-the-best

Take advantage of these educational notes, it’s the best way to learn fundamentals!

AUDCHF, upside is still valid.

The macro context has not changed.

Expecting the trend to continue higher.

Have a great weekend everybody!