The process is what I actually want you to learn.

If you understand why the Dollar is trading the way it is on the back of the FOMC rate decision, you're already a step ahead of most traders.

The video's there if you want to learn the framework.

Further fuel for the fundamental trend.

More hikes = bullish USD

Another FOMC voter posing for more hikes.

The trade is now the October FOMC.

Chances of another hike are 70.9%

So from here, every inflation print, every labor market report, every FED speaker between now and October gets to push that number around.

Here's what it means for the Dollar:

https://besomebodyfx.substack.com/p/709-chance-of-another-rate-hike

(if you want to be a macro trader, you have to understand this)

Market pricing in an October FOMC hike = USD strength

Remember…

The key variable that moves markets is not "what happened."

It's "what happens next."

I put my whole thought process into this latest video on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1lTt2dEUi4

Study these videos, take notes, ask questions, that's how it starts to click!

The message is very clear yes.

Japan and the US want a stronger Yen.

We're still short CHFJPY (long term trade)

As long as the FED needs to hike further, the Dollar will keep strengthening.

I’m NOT buying GOLD yet.

I'm a long term bull on it, but I'm still not loading yet.

And this is why:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vz7-VEc1pdQ

14 minute video with the full educational thought process to learn from!

We are long AUDCHF.

The fundamental divergence between the hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia and the Swiss National Bank is one of the cleanest setups right now.

1. Australia is dealing with CPI well above the RBA’s target (hawkish)

2. Switzerland is dealing with inflation at the lower bound of the SNB’s target (dovish)

We’ve actually been bullish on AUDCHF for months as this macro divergence has been playing out for quite a bit, and now the recent correction offers an opportunity to position for the next continuation.

Target 0.5950

You know how we operate here, full transparency!

Stopped out quickly on AUDCHF.

No change in the big picture macro context, just equities taking a bit of a hit with volatility rising, and that hurts a carry trade like AUDCHF.

Remember NOT to think this is bullish GOLD, it's not!

We've reloaded on AUDCHF yesterday.

Longer term trade, still same underlying view.

Stop loss moved to breakeven.

Still, "cheap" is NOT a reason to buy GOLD.

There's NO reason to buy it until the underlying issue is resolved.

Without this strategy, you're trading Forex on hard mode.

Because the truth is that the biggest Forex trends almost always start the same way.

It's a boring way, but...

Boring is profitable.

Full strategy explained in a new YouTube video, link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0V3UE_AgJ24

Once you see it properly, it clicks!

AUDCHF

If you've watched the latest video, you know exactly the strategy behind it.

We took the small profit on AUDCHF after the labor market data from Australia.

As bad as it gets there with the unemployment rate up to a 5 year high!

That puts a dent in the RBA's outlook, no more hikes anytime soon.

The Dollar fell after a hot CPI and everyone’s calling the top.

Ehhh I wouldn’t be so sure about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfs34uK2rxY

Don’t fight the FED!