Leaving this here...
Pure data, no forecast here, just sharing with you what the data and analysis is showing us, use this info as you wish...
Pure data, no forecast here, just sharing with you what the data and analysis is showing us, use this info as you wish...
Flights resuming in China, honestly it looks a bit early especially for Japan where the curve has not flattened yet at all and look at the increase in flights, this gives us wave 2 vibes that would spark a huge risk off sentiment in the markets, our pick of choice is the Japanese Yen as we have both a recession and a possible wave 2 looming in the markets and the JPY would outperform in such environment, we are already short EURJPY from 120 since March and will look for new positions upon confirmation
BeSomebodyFX
EURGBP playbook for this week... We have been eyeing EURGBP shorts since last week once we saw that liquidity hunt above the 0.93, we were anticipating a squeeze lower but failed to get an entry last week, we will try again this week keeping an eye on last…
Follow up to this analysis coming up in a few minutes
EURGBP retail still trying to pick the bottom...
Retail traders here are adding longs in size since the month started and are now sitting 43% longs (from 29% at the beginning of the month) and i expect them to reach at least 70% longs while price keep squeezing towards the liquidity zone where most of their stop losses will be
We are fundamentally EUR bearish over the long term as the eurozone is divided and failing in reaching a deal to give financial support to Europe
The chart is pretty straight forward, retest of the flag and we add shorts targeting the liquidity zone
Retail traders here are adding longs in size since the month started and are now sitting 43% longs (from 29% at the beginning of the month) and i expect them to reach at least 70% longs while price keep squeezing towards the liquidity zone where most of their stop losses will be
We are fundamentally EUR bearish over the long term as the eurozone is divided and failing in reaching a deal to give financial support to Europe
The chart is pretty straight forward, retest of the flag and we add shorts targeting the liquidity zone
BeSomebodyFX
EURGBP retail still trying to pick the bottom... Retail traders here are adding longs in size since the month started and are now sitting 43% longs (from 29% at the beginning of the month) and i expect them to reach at least 70% longs while price keep squeezing…
Unsurprisingly retails keep adding longs in EURGBP and price keeps squeezing lower as expected, beware of this technical trendline, if it bounces from it we will look for a setup to add shorts as long as retails keep adding longs, target is still the liquidity level market in the chart
This happened today for our EURGBP position…
Yes we got stop hunted to the tick, hilarious isn’t it?
We are hunting retails liquidity and we got hunted to the tick ourselves too…
what do we do in these cases?
Do we take it personally and start revenge trading?
No…
Has something fundamentally changed behind the pair?
No…
So what a professional trader does?
If nothing changed behind the chart, the bias is still intact (which it is), and that stop hunt was just volatility then we simply patiently wait for a new setup to give shorts another try…
Risk reward is our best friend here, we can get stop hunted 2 out of 3 times until we get it right and still come out with a profit, and plus we try to look at the positive side, our initial risk reward for the first trade was 1:2.23, maybe tomorrow we will get a setup with a 1:5 risk reward 😉
Yes we got stop hunted to the tick, hilarious isn’t it?
We are hunting retails liquidity and we got hunted to the tick ourselves too…
what do we do in these cases?
Do we take it personally and start revenge trading?
No…
Has something fundamentally changed behind the pair?
No…
So what a professional trader does?
If nothing changed behind the chart, the bias is still intact (which it is), and that stop hunt was just volatility then we simply patiently wait for a new setup to give shorts another try…
Risk reward is our best friend here, we can get stop hunted 2 out of 3 times until we get it right and still come out with a profit, and plus we try to look at the positive side, our initial risk reward for the first trade was 1:2.23, maybe tomorrow we will get a setup with a 1:5 risk reward 😉
AUDNZD time to jump in long?
Since last week we have been tracking possible longs on AUDNZD, we missed an intraday entry for only 2.5 pips but doesn't matter because looks like a decent macro opportunity is building for the medium/long term
On Friday Goldman Sachs came out with a research highlighting how they are getting long on AUDNZD and positioning in a few other pairs (can't share more details, info exclusive for the Private Network members), we definitely don't follow blindly banks calls but we liked the AUDNZD since we were already tracking in from the previous week, so let's get into it...
Since last week we have been tracking possible longs on AUDNZD, we missed an intraday entry for only 2.5 pips but doesn't matter because looks like a decent macro opportunity is building for the medium/long term
On Friday Goldman Sachs came out with a research highlighting how they are getting long on AUDNZD and positioning in a few other pairs (can't share more details, info exclusive for the Private Network members), we definitely don't follow blindly banks calls but we liked the AUDNZD since we were already tracking in from the previous week, so let's get into it...
Don't want to get much into details on the macro analysis here in the public group since it can't be explained in a quick telegram message (indeed we sent out a full email for the Private Network Members highlighting the reasons for the bias) but in simple we have a clear divergence between the Australian 10Y yields and the New Zealand 10Y yields, but that's not all last week the RBNZ announced they are ready to go negative interest rates while the RBA still stands solid with no intention of negative rates, so a policy divergence has been created between the two.
Now guess what?
Retails are selling the pair of course, this is pretty much all we need for a solid trade, the Private Network Team has already set a long term limit order to buy at a specific level and we will look for intraweek trades too.
On the chart above you will find levels of interest for longs, the last chart is just a visual representation of retail behaviour always keep that in mind when you take your entry.
Now guess what?
Retails are selling the pair of course, this is pretty much all we need for a solid trade, the Private Network Team has already set a long term limit order to buy at a specific level and we will look for intraweek trades too.
On the chart above you will find levels of interest for longs, the last chart is just a visual representation of retail behaviour always keep that in mind when you take your entry.
Retails buying NZD and selling JPY of course you want to do the opposite today hence shorting NZDJPY to the liquidity level, tip for the intraday traders
BeSomebodyFX
Retails buying NZD and selling JPY of course you want to do the opposite today hence shorting NZDJPY to the liquidity level, tip for the intraday traders
Have retails been stopped out at 63.90? just 10 pips shy of our 63.80 target, we don't believe this latest risk rally and there are a lot of stops left untouched at 63.80, we have a small start position short here since this morning, we will be proven wrong only if we get a clean smash above 64.60
BeSomebodyFX
Have retails been stopped out at 63.90? just 10 pips shy of our 63.80 target, we don't believe this latest risk rally and there are a lot of stops left untouched at 63.80, we have a small start position short here since this morning, we will be proven wrong…
We have reduce our short exposure here as we are seeing a reduction in retail longs, we will likely add shorts higher up in the 65.00 - 66.00 range upon confirmation
BeSomebodyFX
Have retails been stopped out at 63.90? just 10 pips shy of our 63.80 target, we don't believe this latest risk rally and there are a lot of stops left untouched at 63.80, we have a small start position short here since this morning, we will be proven wrong…
Job done and liquidity hunted, now fundamentally we believe NZDJPY will trade lower over the coming weeks with the RBNZ ready to go negative rates and the JPY will benefit from safe havens flows, at this point we have a nice range in play, we still hold small shorts on this and will like to see a fakeout to the upside and a close back inside the range to add to our shorts targeting 63.00