Stay safe out there, things are likely to get wild again, if this is not a false alarm then volatility will increase again, protect your main capital and if you are greedy at least create a secondary account where you can take high risk but high reward trades, just don't gamble your whole capital

This is the COVID trend across US states, the situation could be getting critic and that would of course impact the markets, keep your eyes on this site:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states

And if the table gets redder and redder every day then you should know what to do, risk off is looming around the corner

So the majority now expects a new COVID wave and a dump in the stock market...

It's interesting to note how the majority back at the end of January thought the virus was being overhyped and it was due to fade away (attached photo), well we know what happened after... The majority is most of the time wrong 😉

NOT saying what will happen with the COVID infection curve, but keep in mind that the crowd tends to be wrong and late to the party.

Will we get a selloff in the stock market?
Probably yes because cases in the US will keep rising in the short term...

Will the selloff be sustained?
Probably not, why? because the crowd will think we are heading to new lows and will get in short way too late, and that's when the stock market will start to squeeze higher again causing pain...

Something we have our eyes on the Dollar, will look for bullish price action on the mentioned level to confirm an entry

Didn't get enough of a pullback to enter, but you get the psychology behind this price action, breakout... breakout trades jump in... squeeze against them... they give up and take the loss (maybe even reverse the position thinking it was a false break) and then price resumes the intended way...

Australian pension funds withdrawing offshore investments...

One of biggest movers in the FX market (pension funds) have to prepare for Australian citizens to withdraw some of their pensions, so these pension funds have to sell their overseas investments and convert back to Australian Dollars making inevitably appreciate the domestic currency because they will have to convert foreign currency to AUDs...

If we get a convincing break in market structure we will be long, trade safe because market sentiment can shift in a heartbeat with the developments on the COVID front

Keep in mind this week the NFP will be release on Thursday and not on Friday, so NFP due on Jul 2 and not on Jul 3

Dollar most likely scenario now based on recent price action...

Squeeze...

The warning was sent, first one is out, we got positive vaccine news yesterday...

There are three of the biggest world powers supporting this market, the US president, pharmaceutics and the FED, the game is rigged? stop complaining, accept it, and join the party...

And if you want to learn and see how we predict fundamental events we just opened 3 seats for the Private Network for the month of July, enrolling will close before the weekend, contact @JayRally to join

Reviews:
https://www.trustpilot.com/review/besomebodyfx.com

Job done in the Dollar, now we see if buyers can take control or not

Our punt on the NFP today:

Beats expectations, first reaction USD weakness as the market confirms its optimism on the V shaped recovery, to then reverse the weakness after real money start to take profits on USD shorts heading into the long weekend.
In simple words... We expect immediate USD weakness at the NFP release followed by a reversal later in the afternoon.

Don't forget it's just a punt, stay safe

NFP beat expectations, USD spiked lower now be wary of the profit taking we have mentioned

If you are wondering about AUDUSD we have taken small profits on two longs that we had running based on this analysis, so we have no position here at the moment, we are now looking for some short term USD strength as real money take profit on USD shorts after the NFP, so we will look to re buy this lower next week, exact entry has been sent to the Private Network members as always