EURGBP targeting 0.87500…

Expecting bouts of risk off and volatility spikes in global markets over the next couple of weeks as inflation expectations move lower (see post above) and global growth peaks, EUR (low beta) tends to outperform GBP (high beta) in this type of environment, hence targeting a move higher towards 0.87500, remember to buy low and not high

EURGBP is valid as long as we don’t get a clean break below 0.85000, we are seeing early signs of risk off building up in Asian markets but none in global markets yet

EURGBP still ongoing, expecting the BoE meeting this week to cool down hawkish expectations and strike a cautious tone, also notice the “risk off” brewing and spreading across assets, we expect more of it in the upcoming weeks, with stronger momentum, anyway, EURGBP is valid as long as we don’t get a sustained break below 0.85000

EURGBP temporarily invalidated with the break of 0.85000, we still expect a move higher but the timing is clearly off, removing the ego on these occasions is essential, don’t let yourself be frustrated by the market.

Side note, the NFP just confirmed the FED tapering timeline, Powell will make his hawkish shift at the Jackson Hole this month to hint at the start of the tapering operations, know this and you know how to be positioned for the whole month

To follow up on the tapering subject, we expect USDJPY to get comfortably above 112.000…

Base case is that the Jackson Hole will signal a shift in FED’s rhetoric, or better, Powell’s rhetoric, enough for us to expect USDJPY at 112.000, tho don’t expect the market to move in a straight line

USDJPY ongoing, It’s Jackson Hole week, pay careful attention to Powell’s words, it’s all a matter of him giving further guidance on the tapering timeline and we (and the market) will be carefully listening for subtle hints on when tapering will start, a slight nod at tapering before year end from Powell and USDJPY goes to 112.000

USDJPY taking its time, sideways action so far but Powell sent the right clues last week at the Jackson Hole and our base case is that tapering will start in November, which means we expect USDJPY to continue to move towards 112.000 going forward, we continue to trade it accordingly

USDJPY still ongoing, so far sideways action but still on track for a move to 112.000, notice also how the POC has shifted higher in the range, decent clue of what’s going

While USDJPY chops around we also have our eyes on the S&P500 where we expect 4700 before year end…

As many start shouting how the FED tapering will trigger a stock market crash, we take the other side, targeting 4700, the matter is simple, when tapering is well communicated and well anticipated (as the FED is doing) it actually ends up improving confidence in US markets, volatility will probably rise yes, there will be noticeable dips here and there yes, but buying those dips will remain a valid strategy for the upcoming months even with the FED tapering.

With this said, we expect 4700 to be reached before year end, just beware of the noise, there will be plenty as the FED tapering approaches

A lot of noise around on the China real estate matter, here’s the ONE thing you need to know…

Besides short term emotional moves which we have been seeing yesterday (and that may continue for a couple more days) the matter shouldn’t be a catalyst for a large correction as many are yelling about, the Chinese gov will (should) take the matter in their hands and when the CCP gets involved to control the situation that’s when medium to longer term dip buyers will show up in US markets too.

4700 is our expected S&P500 year end target and risk reward just got better, just a matter of timing entries right and keeping some breathing room to suit the volatility, again, beware of the noise, keep it smart and make sure you have the right minds around you, and again, markets will get volatile

Just a matter of patience, tapering confirmed for November after the latest FOMC, now also rate hikes on the table for next year, USDJPY of course going for that 112.000

USDJPY 112.000 target hit…

Took its time but finally delivered, remember, patience and discipline bring you a long way, surround yourself with the right minds and keep it smart

116.000 on USDJPY approaching, may have looked unrealistic back in June but it certainly doesn’t now, momentum kicking in thanks to a combination of FED tightening cycle starting (tapering in November) and global growth optimism sentiment reigniting, the former bullish USD while the latter bearish JPY, both flows should continue

EURUSD targeting 1.14000…

It’s not a surprise that the FED will start tapering in November, with that on the agenda plus rate hikes being speculated as soon as next year we can’t but be EURUSD bears, expecting 1.14000 to trade in November

Watch next week’s FOMC very carefully

EURUSD ongoing, we continue to expect 1.14000 to be reached before the end of the month, the FED delivered the long awaited taper announcement yesterday which keeps us well bearish biased on the pair at least until 1.14000 is met, also notice how the POC has shifted lower which suggests the pair is ready for further downside

S&P500 year end target of 4700 reached…

Learn to trade less but smart with the right minds around you, shut the noise from the average trading guru out there and focus on the right content, it’s the key to long term consistency and sustainability, have a great weekend everybody

EURUSD almost to target with some decent momentum thanks to a beat in CPI on Wednesday which makes a hawkish FED even more likely going forward, classic monetary policy divergence between the FED and ECB

EURUSD exceeding expectations, already trading at 1.12800, we keep a long term bearish bias here as the FED vs ECB monetary policy divergence is just getting wider

A clear hint has been sent a couple of days ago from FED’s vice chair (Clarida) mentioning how it may be appropriate to discuss increasing the tapering pace in the upcoming meetings, hence while the FED continues to turn more and more hawkish the ECB remains on a whole different policy, shorting high ones on EURUSD continues to be one of our trades going forward, see chart above for technical details

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